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DWTS Season 26, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, last week’s results certainly seem to indicate that a lack of PR is a killer. Arike was ahead of FOUR people in scores, not counting Kareem and she was eliminated. And that’s a shame because I certainly liked her more than Jennie. Ah well. That’s the way it goes.  Kareem couldn’t cover a small spread to stay over Jennie and Josh, and Arike just wasn’t getting any votes, judging by how many votes those below her needed to stay. Kinda surprising.

So, let’s take a look at where everyone stands on the leader board. Unfortunately, we can only use this as a guess because if they continue to use the show day scores to determine who goes home on that night, then these numbers are essentially meaningless.  It’s only a bit instructive. To top it off, the judges can easily base their scores on who they want to go home – if they know who has the votes. They can take away the public’s power. And that sucks. But it is what it is.

What I will say is that we kind of have to base everything on how people are doing in general and make the assumption that there won’t be any huge changes. And so far, the only changes in trend are that Josh was scored lower due to going first, and Arike jumped in the standings by a good bit. Mirai and  Adam stayed at the top, Tonya dropped a bit to tie with Chris and Jennie is with Josh in the bottom.  I’m sure it’s totally a coincidence that the are three two way ties remaining and the dancers are neatly ranked exactly as you would expect, even though everyone was “randomly” split into teams. I’m sure it wasn’t planned at all. :::rolls eyes:::

Once Arike and Kareem left, Josh and Jennie are the low folks on the leaderboard. It does make you wonder though, if they are really using same day scores – because I just can’t believe that Jennie pulled it off over Arike. Which makes me wonder when the teams were decided and if it was really a schoolyard pick. Doubtful. Totally a coincidence that the two people who didn’t tie with anyone are the ones who went home. I don’t even know what that means, because those judges scores are done, right? It will be this past weeks votes with the coming weeks judges scores to determine who dances in the finale.

So, as I noted above, Josh and Jennie needed roughly 13k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Arike and they apparently got those votes. Chris and Tonya needed 7.5k more votes per million votes cast –  it’s far less surprising that they got those votes than Jennie getting them.  But what’s going to happen this coming week? Who the hell knows.  If I was betting I would say that Mirai and Adam stay at the top of the leader board. I would also bet that the producers prefer Tonya over Josh (ratings! PR!!), hence she might rise on the leaderboard as well – it might also depend on who’s getting the votes. Judges like to be right, after all.

Let’s assume the standings remain relatively the same after the judges score on Monday, the possible exception being Josh rising on the leaderboard – I would bet Jennie or Chris go first, and get the lower score. But let’s use last weeks scores and you can switch Josh with Jennie or Chris to see how he might do if he rises on the board. What do Jennie/Josh need to do to make it to the finale?

Note I removed Kareem and Arike’s scores from the totals to make it more realistic, seeing as how they won’t be scored on Monday night. As you can see, Jennie and Josh theoretically need only 7.4k more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Chris and Tonya – that is not much. But this Monday you need to beat THREE people in order to make it to the finale, so Jennie (for example) would need to get ONE more vote than Josh AND get the 7.4k more votes per million votes cast to beat BOTH Chris and Tonya. One won’t do it – to stay you have to beat all three people. I doubt very much that Jennie beats any of those three (and definitely not all three), regardless of what order they are in.

But, perhaps a better way to look at it is who is most likely to NOT get beaten or who is likely getting the votes. How are Mirai and Adam looking?  If you look again at table 3, you’ll note that if the spreads stay the same and Adam and Mirai remain firmly at the top of the leaderboard, it will take a lot of votes to dislodge them. In second place are Chris and Tonya – I think one of those two might get replaced with Josh.

Anyway, do you think than Jennie can beat out any of Josh, Chris or Tonya? I don’t. I think she’s low woman on the leader board.  That leaves Tonya, Josh and Chris.  Of those three, who is most likely to be the top dog? Depends on the spread, of course, but I think it goes one of two ways. One: Josh regains his standing from week 1 and goes to the finale with Mirai and Adam. Two: I’m not alone in my dislike of Mirai and she’s a shocking elimination, opening the door for both Tonya and Josh to go to the finale with Adam. Of course, the third possibility is that Tonya is killing it and she goes to the finale with Mirai and Adam.

Too much depends on crappy judging – it’s impossible to tell. If they continue true to form, I tend to think that number one is most likely…but I’m hoping for number two. 😉

May 10, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 26, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

After the show, I started writing this post and re-looking at the numbers once Jamie and Johnny were eliminated…and realized that I’m going to have a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact that there are only three more weeks and two more people go home next week. That’s…crazy. There are only 8 couples left and not a ton of low hanging fruit. Interesting.

Well, this show needs a bit of a shake up in any case. 😊

Who’s my favorite thus far?? Well, I have to say, I really love what Jenna did with Adam. That was a ton of fun. I’m not particularly a Sharna fan and…hold on…I need to go actually watch that dance.

Okay…after that I AM a Josh Norman fan!! That was pretty hot. I still think that Mirai is the best dancer and Adam is a close second with a choreographic advantage…but that doesn’t mean either of them will necessarily win this season. Josh is right up there with them and could win this thing. We’ll see!! I also don’t think Tonya should be counted out.

This season is going to be incredibly tough from a numbers standpoint – I don’t feel like many of the typical metrics I use to GUESS who might be going home are actually there this season. I feel like so much of how well people do this season will depend on nearly instantaneous impressions that people have of a given couple. Typically, that impression is aided by their “fame” at some level prior to the show. Athletes who have been on this show in the past have VERY specific fanbases, unlike actors, models and other types of celebs. When it comes to these athletes, Kareem, the ice skaters and the football player have the odds in their favor with the average viewer – largely due to the popularity of their sport and the name recognition. Coincidentally (or not) the ice skaters and the football player also happen to be the best dancers…and Kareem is an icon. So, I suspect that the ice skaters and the football player are more likely to last to the end. Kareem might not due to lower scores.

Anyway, let’s refresh our memories on how everyone did in terms of scores.

 

Now, if I remember this correctly, the live voting during the show plus judges scores were used to eliminate Jamie and Johnny. The judges scores and the voting after the show by phone and online will result in two more people being eliminated this coming week. Who will it be??
Well, I feel reasonably confident that it will be either Kareem, Arike or Jennie. Of course, no one can be sure. Kareem survived week 1, but he didn’t have to do that much to make it.


As you can see above, he only needed 5k and 10k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Johnny and Jamie, respectively. In order to stay this week he needs 14k more than Arike AND nearly 20k more than Chris or Jennie. Two people going home, means he has to beat two people. I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could do that – half the battle is name recognition and he’s got it where Arike, Chris and Jennie don’t really. It will be tough though. And if he manages to do it, I think it will be Arike and Jenny.

So let’s say that Kareem gets past Arike and Jennie. What do they need to do in order to be safe?


Chris is tied with Jennie as you recall. Well, he only needs ONE more vote than her to be safe. And he needs for Arike to not get 4.8k more votes per million votes cast than him. I don’t think that will be a problem. Personally, I think Arike beats Jennie – she was just more memorable. Problem is, she needs to beat TWO people. I don’t think she gets the votes to get past Mirai, Tonya, Adam or Josh, so she needs to beat BOTH Chris and Jennie, or she needs to beat one of them and have Kareem not cover the spread.

And this is where it’s really hard. I hate double eliminations. My gut is kinda telling me that Arike and Jennie are going to be eliminated – mainly because I think that Kareem can beat Arike and that everyone beats Jennie….which would mean that Jennie and Arike are the two who would be eliminated.

What do you all think?? Am I half right like I was week one? Or completely wrong?

May 4, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, the dance order from last night is interesting. It’s often instructive, but we won’t actually know until it’s all over.  But I’m surprised to see Lindsey going last. Perhaps it’s so close between Lindsey and Jordan that it makes no difference?  In any case, my sense after last week was that it was between Jordan and Frankie. Now I think it’s between Jordan and Lindsey.

There are fine reasons for any of the final three to win, and I remain much as I was last week in that I would be fine with any of them winning. There is an argument to be made for each, particularly when talking only about the celebrities. They all have pluses and minuses – and I have to say that I’m enjoying a finale where I’m not overly invested in any of the remaining couples.  At the end of the night, Lindsey’s is likely the only freestyle I will carry with me beyond tonight – playing her violin while doing all that dancing? Awesome. And before you cynical lot start – Lindsey is always highly mobile when playing. Not quite THAT mobile…but yes, I believe she was playing.

Another thing that I mentioned in the Live Blog – this is yet another season where the freestyles, while awesome, were not overly special. This is mainly due to the over use of the troupe during the whole season. It reduces the “standout” quality of a lot of the finale dances. Perhaps I watch too much DWTS, but there is something to be said for just two dancers – the pro and their partner – over the course of the whole season. Then, when you get to the end and want to use the troupe, it doesn’t seem like just another week. I suspect that we’re never going to get that aspect of DWTS back.

So, at the end of the night, where does everyone stand on the leaderboard? Much where I expected them to stand – Jordan and Lindsey tied with Frankie a couple points back.

Only four points between Frankie and Lindsey/Jordan. That will likely be enough but you just never know.

For Frankie to get second place, he needs to get roughly 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than either Lindsey or Jordan.

In order to win, Jordan OR Lindsey need for Frankie to NOT get that 13,000 more votes per million votes cast and one of them needs to get ONE more vote per millon votes cast than the other.

I feel like Jordan is going to win. Why? Who knows why, but that’s what my gut is saying.  Let’s break it down.

Factors in Jordan’s favor:

  • His pro has never won.
  • His pro has been killing it for a couple seasons now and has come up short.
  • He’s a great dancer.

Factors against Jordan:

  • His fanbase coming in to this show likely doesn’t stack up to either Frankie or Lindsey, who has 10 million youtube followers. That doesn’t usually count for much if they’re not voting, but they’re more than what Jordan has.
  • It seems like a lot of the audience isn’t connecting with him like they are Frankie.
  • He’s always been a great dancer.

What about Lindsey? What’s working in her favor?

  • She has a huge online fanbase.
  • Mark has the largest pro fanbase of the pros left in the competition.
  • I think her freestyle was most memorable.
  • It’s been so long since Mark won that the show isn’t even close to the same any more. 8 YEARS.
  • Great dancer, sweet personality

Factors working against Lindsey:

  • In spite of how long it’s been, Mark HAS won twice.
  • She had an off week last week.
  • Serious lack of PR compared to the other couples, but possibly due to her and Mark’s schedules.
  • More of a growth arc than Jordan, but still a great dancer coming in.

And then there’s Frankie. He shouldn’t be left out of the pros and cons – it is by no means a foregone conclusion that he’s not going to win or even come in second. I honestly don’t know. So, what’s working for him?

Factors working in Frankie’s favor? Well before the season started I would say only one – nostalgia. That is a big thing, though, when the DWTS fanbase averages 62 and female. But now that we’re at the finale?

  • It seems quite obvious that he’s a fan favorite in a more passionate way than either Jordan or Lindsey.
  • He’s had a real, tangible growth arc.
  • He’s a good dancer. The other two are as well, but they started out talented – and quite a bit younger as well.
  • Serious underdog. Women love an underdog.

Working against Frankie??

  • While good, he’s not the dancer the other two are.
  • 13,000 votes is quite a lot in the finale.
  • Freestyle didn’t have quite the bang that the other two did.

Any of the three could win, and I get the feeling that it’s close – and that we might hear Tom say so this evening. I still feel like Jordan might pull it out. But honestly, it’s too close to call with any certainty.  I could fake certainty and get it right – but that would be luck, wouldn’t it? 🙂

And I’ll be happy no matter how it turns out.

So, what say you??  Jordan? Lindsey? Or Frankie?  Too close to call??

November 21, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!

This week, like last week, seems fairly obvious with regard to who’s going to go home. But beyond that? This show feels like anybody’s game.

But first things first…let’s not waste any time. The judges were quite clear with their preference this past week, underscoring Drew a bit to make sure he is the one to leave this coming Monday. They didn’t underscore him but by a point or so, but it may not take much more than that. Let’s take a look at the scores.

Read more..

November 17, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, I knew it was going to be an “interesting” week for the numbers but I had no idea until I actually ran them. 🙂

But first…we’re at that point in the season when most couples are putting out some good dances. Last Monday was no exception. In fact, there was only one disaster and that was shockingly Victoria and Val; that trio was just horrible. I have no idea what Val was thinking. If it wasn’t for the near constant displays of ego from him, I would guess that the producers talked him into making that Trio all about Laurie with Victoria as an afterthought. Unfortunately for Victoria, the video flashback of Val’s win seems right up Val’s alley. I can’t even imagine any other pro (not even Maks, I don’t think) doing such a thing. Made me a bit sad for Victoria.

Anyhow, once you look at the numbers, it’s very obviously either Drew or Victoria going home this coming week.  First, the totals for all couples.

Yeah, a fairly significant vote difference between the top three and the two low scorers. But it gets worse.

As you can see, Drew only needs about 3,200 votes per million votes cast in order to be safe over Victoria. I think he will manage to get that 3,200 votes. He’s getting hosed by the judges plus his dances just have more impact. I also think that his fanbase is far larger than either Victoria’s or Val’s. Always a tough call when someone has to cover a margin, though…even a tiny one.

And, as you can also see, there are no other avenues for Drew – if he wants to be safe he needs to beat Victoria because Frankie, Lindsey and Jordan are way out of reach for him (I believe), starting at a more than 19k vote margin to pass Frankie.

Let’s assume that Drew covers that spread to beat Victoria. What does Victoria need to do to be safe?

See, this is where the bad news really starts. And why it has to be either Drew or Victoria. Drew needs more than 19k more votes per million votes cast and Victoria needs nearly 16k more votes per million votes cast to get past Frankie – and I just don’t see either of them being able to do that. For this season, that is a LOT of votes against a guy like Frankie. I don’t see it happening.

In a nutshell, for Victoria to be safe, she needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • She needs for Drew to NOT get the 3,200 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • She needs to get 16,000 more votes per million votes cast than Frankie, OR;
  • She needs to get 19,200 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey, OR;
  • She needs to get 38,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan.

Do you see any of that happening? The only possible way to safety that I see for Victoria is through Drew.

So, Frankie, Lindsey and Jordan are almost certainly safe and either Drew or Victoria will be eliminated.

Which one? Well, I could certainly be wrong because so many in the cast have been very similar in terms of skill and fanbase this season that it’s been a tough call all the way, but I think it’s Victoria’s time to go.  And this makes me sad, because she seems like such a great girl – but I think she’s plateaued and I think the audience will agree.

What do you think? Victoria or Drew??

November 10, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, I’ve never seen a more disgusting, egregious display perhaps EVER on DWTS – and that’s really saying something. Of course I’m referring to the judging and scoring of the team dances this past week. Was Team Monster Mash perfect? Of course not. But what about Team Phantom? Were they perfect? HELL NO. What kind of moron actually believes there is a six point difference between the team with the better choreographers and better dancers (and the more difficult, innovative choreography) and the team with…issues. I like all the dancers left, but come ON. Utterly ridiculous. You know, if the judges thought Team Phantom were the better team, fine. Give them a point or two…or even three…higher. But SIX POINTS?? Fucking ridiculous and so very transparent. So how much trouble is Vickie in??

Well, I think it is probably mission accomplished. I’m tempted to go back through the seasons and do an accounting of how often at this point in the season some kind of ridiculous BS occurs in order to save some dancer that the producers need to stick around for a while longer. I bet we would be shocked at how often it happens. In fact, I probably WILL go through and do a post on it. But in the meantime, off the top of my head, the first one I remember is Chelsea Kane and her crazy high immunity points. There have been several since then, but that’s the first one I remember. It’s been several days and I’m still pissed.

Anyway, let’s do a bit of a look back before we look at the numbers for Monday night.  Nikki and Vanessa were both eliminated and they were not at the top of the leaderboard.  In order for Nikki and Vanessa – who were tied with each other – to be eliminated, ALL of the following things had to happen:

  • Drew got 19,700 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH of the, AND;
  • Frankie AND Victoria got 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than both of them, AND;
  • Neither Nikki nor Vanessa could cover the 3,300 votes point spread to pass Terrell, and so on up the leader board.

Now, I’m inclined to think that three people getting that many votes to be safe over two people in the middle of the leaderboard means that those two people were not getting many votes, more than those three people getting a tone of votes. Of course, both things could be true, but we won’t know until it’s all over.  For example, Audrina Patridge got voted out in a “shocking” elimination back in the day – one that both Courtney and I predicted beforehand.  For that to happen, MANY people (five) got more votes than her, including Kurt Warner who got something like 45k more votes per million votes cast; a huge number that hasn’t been beaten since.  BUT, Kurt was then evicted two weeks later, after Rick Fox, who also was below Audrina on the leaderboard. In that instance, it became fairly obvious that no one was voting for Audrina.  Make sense?

So, just because Drew, Frankie AND Victoria all stayed while Vanessa and Nikki were eliminated doesn’t mean that those three are bullet proof and getting a ton of votes.  On the contrary, it’s possible that any one of the three could be eliminated any time now. But will they? Well, check it out:

 

Terrell is on the bottom, but not by a lot. The problem for Terrell is that we’re down to 6 and my read on the season is that of everyone left, Terrell and Victoria are the two weakest fanbases. And Victoria has a nice cushion – thanks to the aforementioned crap ass team dance scoring. But I’m sure that’s completely legit. :::smirk::: Not.   Anyway, what does Terrell need to be safe?

As you can see, Terrell only needs about 4,600 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey and 11,700 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan in order to be safe. It can be kinda tricky, what the judges have done here. What I mean is that I think that Frankie and Drew are getting plenty of votes, while Lindsey and Jordan are getting great scores and a good number of votes. The question is, have Lindsey and Jordan been more sustained by scores than they have by votes, or are they getting a ton of votes as well?  I kinda feel like Lindsey has the jump on Jordan when it comes to votes…and I think she has the jump on Terrell as well. She doesn’t need to get more votes than Terrell, she just has to be not getting 4,600 per million LESS. And I don’t think she is – I think she’s every bit as charming as Frankie, with her pixie pig tails, and every bit as fun as Drew. Jordan I’m not as sure about any more – for whatever reason he doesn’t seem to connect as much as Lindsey does.  That said, I don’t think Terrell is covering the spread.

If there is anyone Terrell could beat, I would think it’s Victoria – but I also think she might be out of reach this week.  Terrell would have to get 18,700 more votes per million votes cast than her. That’s a pretty good number at this stage of the competition.

So, to sum it up, Terrell needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to be safe:

  • He needs to get about 4,600 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey, OR;
  • He needs about 11,700 more votes per million votes cast than Jordan, OR;
  • He needs about 18,700 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew or Victoria, OR;
  • He needs to get about 26k more votes per million votes cast than Frankie.

As much as Terrell is growing on me, I’m hoping he’s not beating anyone above him with the exception of Victoria. Nothing against her, but her partner could use a bit of humble pie, to say the least.

I could go on but I feel that Terrell is the one who will be eliminated this week. My record is crap this season, after being so good last season, so it’s very possible that my read is way off. Expect to see either Jordan or Lindsey (or both) in jeopardy along with Terrell.  If it’s a shocking elimination, I would expect that Terrell would be called safe right away. We best hope that doesn’t happen. If it does, we’ll need to do a post mortem, because these contestants seem kinda close to me and I don’t know who might go if not Terrell.

What do you think?

November 3, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Welp, this is one of those weeks where I’m really not sure what’s going to happen…but it will probably be an eye-opening week. We’re going to find out what Drew and Frankie (and Victoria) are made of, most likely. Why? Well, I feel like all of them are probably solid vote getters, but we really don’t know for sure that that’s true.

One of those three is most likely to go home, IMO, because there is a pretty big break between the upper tier and the bottom tier scorers this past week. Check it out. Read more..

October 28, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

DWTS is on the verge of boring the shit out of me once again.

Why, you ask? Well, they just seem so OBVIOUS to me. Perhaps they’re obvious to everyone which is why they’ve fallen below 10 million viewers for the first time EVER this season. But really, how many times do we have to see this scenario play out: they cast the show, sometimes with an obvious gimmick they are invested in (the Chmerlacheys) and sometimes just someone who is ABC family who they need to pimp. THEY, the producers, are invested in it for one reason or another and therefore they feel the need to pimp the crap out of it to try to get everyone else buying it as well.  It DOESN’T WORK OUT, so they are scrambling. They can’t just let the show evolve organically, so they think (tragically) that they must have a Chmerkovskiy in the finale – so they go to plan B: pimp the crap out of Val’s partner. Yes, Val was actually Plan B for a change. LOL. Does it occur to NO ONE on that show that if Val was that great he wouldn’t need all that help? Read more..

October 20, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!

You really want me to believe that SIX couples all got a 24 on the same night?? That’s utterly ridiculous.

I also am having a hard time with a top three that consists of Jordan, Lindsey and…Victoria?? Very nice girl and all, but in no way was she a point ahead of Lindsey and 3 points above the rest of the pack. Makes you wonder if she’s in a bit of trouble. I don’t find her much more memorable than Sasha, sad to say. And the producers are certainly more invested in Val than they are Gleb, for some strange reason.

Now that you mention it, Frankie, Jordan, Lindsey and TO were the ones that are still sticking with me several days after the show aired. Not a great sign for the rest, I must say. Drew and Nikki are up there as well – and kudos to Artem and Emma for making sure that their celebs don’t fade into the woodwork. Neither is coasting and both are doing some good work here. Both did a brilliant job showcasing their celeb and doing something to get the audience talking. They are not coasting.

That doesn’t mean they’ll be safe…but I do think that Jordan, Lindsey and Victoria are our “safe” ones this week.  What does the leaderboard look like? Well, like I was saying – pretty damn simple.

So, Nick is the low man on the totem pole.  And there are 6 people above him all with the same score. The question is: does Nick have the ability to get enough votes more than any of that 6 to be safe? What kind of votes are we talking about?

So, Nick needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than the 6 people immediately above him on the leader board – Frankie, Nikki, Sasha, Vanessa, Drew and TO.   Question is: does he have the juice to beat any of those people?

I’m thinking there are one or two that he might be able to pass. I know I called Sasha as the one to be eliminated last week and nothing has changed to make me thing she’s any safer this week. Nikki is the only other one in that group that I feel like could be in danger.

Thing is, when someone is put in jeopardy it can go one of two ways. Typically (or as of the last time I studied it), if you are put in jeopardy, it means that you’re not long for this world. There are, of course, exceptions to this rule. But Nick’s problem is that he’s been there more than once – so it’s only a matter of time, IMO, before he’s gone. But the producers putting you in jeopardy does often stimulate votes. Is that working this time? Hell if I know. 😉

At the end of the day, I think it comes down to Nick, Sasha and Nikki. One of those three isn’t long for this show.  We already know that Nick needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than the group above him, but what about that group? Who is most likely to be safe??

Well, I don’t think there is any way that that group gets 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey. But they don’t have to – they only need ONE more vote per million to be safe over the others in their group.  So, out of Frankie, TO, Vanessa, Nikki, Sasha and Drew, who are the kids getting the votes? Well, I think Frankie and Drew always were getting the votes. I think, after last week, TO is getting the votes for a while longer. He sure won me over. That leaves us with Vanessa, Nikki and Sasha. I think Vanessa is doing fine – she’s only in trouble if crazy fans decide that Maks is very upset to be dancing with her…or vice versa. I feel like she’s still good for a bit.

Once again, we are left with Nikki, Nick and Sasha – honestly, I feel like Nikki is safe and it’s going to come down to Nick and Sasha. But your guess is as good as mine.  For Nikki to be safe she needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • Nikki needs for Nick to NOT get the 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Nikki needs for ONE of Sasha, Vanessa, TO, Frankie and Drew to NOT get ONE more vote per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Nikki needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey.

And so on. That last one is unlikely to happen, but I can certainly see Sasha not getting more votes than her. And if Sasha is, is Nick getting the 7,400? I have a hard time believing that he still has that kind of fanbase.  My gut is saying that Nikki is safe.

Which leaves us with Nick and Sasha. Nick and Sasha, Sasha and Nick.  No idea. One part of me is saying that Nick is finally done, but Sasha is just such a non-event for me. Nick is too, but he’s memorable in his badness, not to mention that he’s getting double the screen time of everyone other than his wife. That being said, the show probably can’t support three fam members beyond week 5 and the fam fans are more likely to go with Maks and Val over Peta. Mores the pity.

I kinda feel like Nick is done…but ask me again in 5 minutes and it will be Sasha. If it’s either one of those two, I’ll call this week a win for me. If not, well, it’s just impossible. 🙂

October 14, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Oh boy. We’re in some dangerous territory come this Monday night. I understand (and appreciate) the desire to keep last Monday night light hearted, without any kind of threat of elimination, due to the awful events in Las Vegas, but the margins are so freakin’ close that literally any one of about half the cast could be eliminated, depending on how ardent their fanbase is (or isn’t).  This could get interesting. And that makes it all that much harder to call. I’m batting about 500 right now and I don’t think I’ll improve my stats much on Monday.

FYI, the running order issue from the first three episodes seems to have resolved itself, for this week at least. the average score in the first half of the show was nearly identical to that in the last half of the show (0.33 points difference).  We’ll see if that lasts. It was getting quite annoying.

So, let’s look at what we’re dealing with. Read more..

October 6, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)