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DWTS Season 25, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

DWTS is on the verge of boring the shit out of me once again.

Why, you ask? Well, they just seem so OBVIOUS to me. Perhaps they’re obvious to everyone which is why they’ve fallen below 10 million viewers for the first time EVER this season. But really, how many times do we have to see this scenario play out: they cast the show, sometimes with an obvious gimmick they are invested in (the Chmerlacheys) and sometimes just someone who is ABC family who they need to pimp. THEY, the producers, are invested in it for one reason or another and therefore they feel the need to pimp the crap out of it to try to get everyone else buying it as well.  It DOESN’T WORK OUT, so they are scrambling. They can’t just let the show evolve organically, so they think (tragically) that they must have a Chmerkovskiy in the finale – so they go to plan B: pimp the crap out of Val’s partner. Yes, Val was actually Plan B for a change. LOL. Does it occur to NO ONE on that show that if Val was that great he wouldn’t need all that help?

It’s ridiculous. Maks has actually earned his way to the finale on a few occasions without producer help – Mel B, Kirsti Alley are two that spring immediately to mind. So why not let the boys WORK for it like everyone else does?? I kind of feel like the producers of this show are in a Hollywood bubble where they talk to each other and convince themselves that we sheep still watching this show are just too stupid to figure out for ourselves who we like and who we want to vote for. And that we’ll never see the man behind the curtain.

And, sadly, in a lot of instances they are right about the stupid. But what would happen if they just let the show evolve organically?? Derek would have 8 or 9 MBTs instead of only 6?? Maybe. But perhaps that should be a wakeup call that Derek is your most valuable asset…or he’s a liability.  He’s become too big to be a pro. Stop using him for your own agenda and screwing his partners over. Don’t wait until he says “fuck it” and leaves on his own. AND DON’T TRY TO RECREATE HIM in pros who don’t have a fraction of his choreography/teaching talent and who still haven’t figured out how to work DWTS. Derek was not pimped to be the best pro ever on this show – it just happened. He walked on to the show and stole the spotlight from a certain Ukranian. So what would happen if they just let the pros be pros and work their butts off? Well, I imagine that right now Lindsay, Witney and Mark would be a LOCK for the finale, and possibly Emma as well.

But can you honestly say that any of those three are a serious lock for the finale when suddenly Victoria and Val are getting 9’s (10s this week I’m sure) for dances that can’t even touch what Mark, Lindsay and Witney are doing for their partners? Which of these pros is going to get well and truly screwed out of a place in the finale, eh? None of them should be. Mark is doing the best work of his career on DWTS – in any other environment he would be a lock for an Emmy nomination. Every week he gives his partner something brilliant to do and she does it with a joy and light that permeates the entire dance. She’s a breath of fresh air. Frankie is an actual delight this season – not a trained dancer, not even the best dancer, but you watch him and you can’t help but root for him and hope he does well. Witney is doing right by him, giving him dances that me happy and work for him. And Lindsay? This girl is overdue for a MBT. Yes, this season she has an amazing partner who may not connect with some – but he works for me and their dances have been first rate. Then there’s Emma who’s dancing with someone who is 6’4” tall – a tall order (haha) for anyone. Someone that tall is tough to get dancing properly and she’s doing a great job. Including Jonathan in their jive was a stroke of genius – that’s called playing the DWTS game. Knowing what it takes to stand out in the field, recognizing that the best dancer doesn’t always win, and working the show to the advantage of your partner.

These four pros and their partners deserve to be the last four standing…but why do I think it won’t work out that way? Because the producers have decided that we can’t have nice things. They get the shakes if they don’t have a C-boy in the finale. Why? Mark Ballas starred on Broadway, Emma won last season and the world didn’t end, Witney and Lindsay are pretty popular in their own right…what the ever-loving hell is wrong with letting the show evolve naturally???

Ah, screw it. Rant over. For now. What does the damn leader board look like?

We have Jordan, Frankie, Lindsey and Victoria as our top four per the judges scores. One of these dances is not like the others; Victoria’s dance I found to be boring. But I’m not a Disney person in any case. It was low energy, simple and not even close to in sync like the judges were desperate to claim. Totally over scored. Was it over scored because she isn’t getting the votes, or over scored just because the judges are creating an arc for her? Who the hell knows.

In any case, it seems pretty simple this week in that there is a good break between the top tier scores and the bottom tier scores. There’s a full two points between Nikki/Victoria and Drew/Terrell – not saying that’s how his should be, just how it IS.

As a result of this break and the vote totals needed, I think it’s safe to say that Jordan, Frankie, Lindsey, Nikki and Victoria are all safe this week.  Nikki is kinda getting hosed every week, but this week I think her score is high enough to keep her safe.  The vote totals are just working in her favor.

In trouble? The Chmerlacheys for sure, along with possibly Terrell (although I kinda doubt it).  Nick is at the bottom of the leader board and he has some work to do.

As you can see, Nick needs about 7,700 more votes per million votes cast to stay over his wife. Is it possible he does? Sure, but I tend to think it’s unlikely. Maks beats Peta in the fanbase department, although Nick beats Vanessa in the fanbase department. I just think that people who watch this show (the general audience) are more likely to go Vanessa – she seems a bit manic, but she’s a decent dancer. In another pro’s hands she might be in the running to go to the finale. I have to say…I feel very sorry for Vanessa. I liked her a lot at the beginning and then some kind of shit went down with Maks. And sorry, Maks fans, but he has a responsibility to make this show a great experience for his partner, regardless. All pros have struggled with this from time to time, but Maks takes the cake. He hasn’t realized, after all these years, that he’s not the star of the show. Why this is hard for him, I don’t know. Anyway, Vanessa seems like she was the one who was gung ho to do the show and now the experience has not been great, thanks to her partner. And honestly, that’s very sad. So many people talk about what a great experience DWTS is, yet you get the wrong partner and it seems like it might be a nightmare. I can’t help but feel for Vanessa.

Anyway, Nick also needs about 11,500 more votes per million votes cast to get past either Drew or Terrell. I really don’t see that happening; both Drew and Terrell seem like audience favorites to me, at least for now. Drew is Property Brothers – which I’m mildly obsessed with – and Terrell really seemed to have a huge breakthrough in Week 4. I don’t know how long that will carry him considering the rest of the cast, but I think it helps him this week.

To sum up, Nick needs ONE of the following to be safe this week:

  • Nick needs about 7,700 more votes per million votes cast than Vanessa, OR;
  • Nick needs about 11,500 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew or Terrell, OR;
  • Nick needs about 19,200 more votes per million votes cast than either Nikki or Victoria

And so on up from there. I can’t see him making any of those vote totals, but I could be wrong. If he beats anyone, it will likely be his wife, Vanessa. I will be surprised by any other outcome. What about Vanessa?

Hmmmm….Vanessa only needs about 3,900 more votes per million votes cast to get past either Terrell or Drew. That is not a lot. It’s a tiny margin, actually. I don’t think I see it happening. But if she were to get more votes than either Terrell or Drew, Nick would need to get the 11,500 more votes per million votes cast than one of them for one of them to go home. And I don’t see that happening.

Because of that it certainly seems like Nick is going to be the one going home. I don’t think he beats Vanessa and he certainly doesn’t beat Terrell or Drew. It’s plausible he could be Vanessa, and for the “DRAMA” of it all they will likely put Vanessa and Drew in jeopardy together. Even though I called that happening a week ago. 😉

I’m going to quit belaboring this and say that Nick is the one going home. If I’m drastically wrong (i.e. it’s someone other than Nick or Vanessa), I’ll do a post mortem on Tuesday or Wednesday.

What do you think?

 

October 20, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!

You really want me to believe that SIX couples all got a 24 on the same night?? That’s utterly ridiculous.

I also am having a hard time with a top three that consists of Jordan, Lindsey and…Victoria?? Very nice girl and all, but in no way was she a point ahead of Lindsey and 3 points above the rest of the pack. Makes you wonder if she’s in a bit of trouble. I don’t find her much more memorable than Sasha, sad to say. And the producers are certainly more invested in Val than they are Gleb, for some strange reason.

Now that you mention it, Frankie, Jordan, Lindsey and TO were the ones that are still sticking with me several days after the show aired. Not a great sign for the rest, I must say. Drew and Nikki are up there as well – and kudos to Artem and Emma for making sure that their celebs don’t fade into the woodwork. Neither is coasting and both are doing some good work here. Both did a brilliant job showcasing their celeb and doing something to get the audience talking. They are not coasting.

That doesn’t mean they’ll be safe…but I do think that Jordan, Lindsey and Victoria are our “safe” ones this week.  What does the leaderboard look like? Well, like I was saying – pretty damn simple.

So, Nick is the low man on the totem pole.  And there are 6 people above him all with the same score. The question is: does Nick have the ability to get enough votes more than any of that 6 to be safe? What kind of votes are we talking about?

So, Nick needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than the 6 people immediately above him on the leader board – Frankie, Nikki, Sasha, Vanessa, Drew and TO.   Question is: does he have the juice to beat any of those people?

I’m thinking there are one or two that he might be able to pass. I know I called Sasha as the one to be eliminated last week and nothing has changed to make me thing she’s any safer this week. Nikki is the only other one in that group that I feel like could be in danger.

Thing is, when someone is put in jeopardy it can go one of two ways. Typically (or as of the last time I studied it), if you are put in jeopardy, it means that you’re not long for this world. There are, of course, exceptions to this rule. But Nick’s problem is that he’s been there more than once – so it’s only a matter of time, IMO, before he’s gone. But the producers putting you in jeopardy does often stimulate votes. Is that working this time? Hell if I know. 😉

At the end of the day, I think it comes down to Nick, Sasha and Nikki. One of those three isn’t long for this show.  We already know that Nick needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than the group above him, but what about that group? Who is most likely to be safe??

Well, I don’t think there is any way that that group gets 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey. But they don’t have to – they only need ONE more vote per million to be safe over the others in their group.  So, out of Frankie, TO, Vanessa, Nikki, Sasha and Drew, who are the kids getting the votes? Well, I think Frankie and Drew always were getting the votes. I think, after last week, TO is getting the votes for a while longer. He sure won me over. That leaves us with Vanessa, Nikki and Sasha. I think Vanessa is doing fine – she’s only in trouble if crazy fans decide that Maks is very upset to be dancing with her…or vice versa. I feel like she’s still good for a bit.

Once again, we are left with Nikki, Nick and Sasha – honestly, I feel like Nikki is safe and it’s going to come down to Nick and Sasha. But your guess is as good as mine.  For Nikki to be safe she needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • Nikki needs for Nick to NOT get the 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Nikki needs for ONE of Sasha, Vanessa, TO, Frankie and Drew to NOT get ONE more vote per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Nikki needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast than Lindsey.

And so on. That last one is unlikely to happen, but I can certainly see Sasha not getting more votes than her. And if Sasha is, is Nick getting the 7,400? I have a hard time believing that he still has that kind of fanbase.  My gut is saying that Nikki is safe.

Which leaves us with Nick and Sasha. Nick and Sasha, Sasha and Nick.  No idea. One part of me is saying that Nick is finally done, but Sasha is just such a non-event for me. Nick is too, but he’s memorable in his badness, not to mention that he’s getting double the screen time of everyone other than his wife. That being said, the show probably can’t support three fam members beyond week 5 and the fam fans are more likely to go with Maks and Val over Peta. Mores the pity.

I kinda feel like Nick is done…but ask me again in 5 minutes and it will be Sasha. If it’s either one of those two, I’ll call this week a win for me. If not, well, it’s just impossible. 🙂

October 14, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Oh boy. We’re in some dangerous territory come this Monday night. I understand (and appreciate) the desire to keep last Monday night light hearted, without any kind of threat of elimination, due to the awful events in Las Vegas, but the margins are so freakin’ close that literally any one of about half the cast could be eliminated, depending on how ardent their fanbase is (or isn’t).  This could get interesting. And that makes it all that much harder to call. I’m batting about 500 right now and I don’t think I’ll improve my stats much on Monday.

FYI, the running order issue from the first three episodes seems to have resolved itself, for this week at least. the average score in the first half of the show was nearly identical to that in the last half of the show (0.33 points difference).  We’ll see if that lasts. It was getting quite annoying.

So, let’s look at what we’re dealing with. Read more..

October 6, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 2 (Tuesday Night) – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, what to say about last Tuesday night? The scoring, combined with Who’s Dancing What, seems to indicate that Nick, Vanessa and Sasha are the current producer favorites.  Although I don’t think most dances are handed out last minute, I do think their favorites are picked pre-season, so there you go.

That said, I don’t know how much of a favor you’re doing Vanessa by giving her Jazz when it’s fairly well documented that her pro can’t hang in the non-ballroom/latin dance styles. He would certainly benefit from some classes if he’s going to continue on DWTS. Or at least get a ghost. Nick, on the other hand, may fare better because I don’t remember Peta sucking at Jazz or contemporary. Gleb? I don’t remember his choreo for either Jazz or Contemporary – I guess that’s not really a bad sign, since I don’t remember anything truly awful. 🙂 Read more..

September 29, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 2 (Monday Night) – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, if that wasn’t the most f@#$@# up bunch of scoring then I don’t know what is. Maybe I shouldn’t tempt fate and make it even worse tonight, but damn – that was just bad. Who in the world besides a delusional fangirl believes that Vanessa and Victoria should be tied with Jordan at the top of the leaderboard with Lindsey a full three points below them?  Don’t get me wrong, I like all the people involved, but there ain’t no way those two ladies are on par with Jordan and that far ahead of Lindsey, EVEN with the breaking of hold.  These judges desperately need Mark, with Derek very unlikely to ever return, and they are NOT doing a good job of rewarding the best choreographer they have – who choreographed an excellent dance last night. And Lindsey’s dress was just freakin’ amazing. No idea how they did that, but man!

My only critique of Mark was the break in hold and spending a beat too long in the “cocoon”.  Victoria? Her legs were too soft throughout the dance (watch her kick) – yes, I get why that might be the case, but in the past the judges went on and on (and on and on and on) about needing to score differently abled contestants the same as everyone else, yet are doing nothing but gushing over Victoria. I think Victoria is a lovely girl (and anybody that prevents Val from talking gets my vote), but fair is fair. I understand we’re still on the Val Character Rehab tour, but let’s give it up, shall we?? As for Vanessa – another woman that (so far) I REALLY like. In fact, I think she would have a shot at winning if paired with Derek or Mark. But Maks isn’t quite up to the task. I’ve got an appreciation for Maks, thanks to his brother – but that dance couldn’t touch what Jordan or Lindsey did. Read more..

September 26, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Welp. Here we are again. It’s still summer, so I’m going to keep this brief – hopefully – then I’m going outside.

Overall, I thought the show was really good this past Monday – I don’t have any real gripes other than I think TO was underscored by a point or two.  I wonder why they seem to do that on purpose? It’s got to have been pointed out to them by NOW that they really almost always low ball the first dancer out of the gate, not just in week one, but in many/most weeks. WHY??? Seems stupid and artificial.

But other than that, I thought we had a pretty good night. No one really sucked. That happens from time to time, but usually week 2 is a real eye opener. We’ll see how it goes this week with two dances. Read more..

September 24, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing With The Stars Season 24, The FINALE – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, conventional wisdom says that Rashad should win. Best freestyle compared to a rather crap one by Normani. He’s at the top of the leader board. The judges raved over him. They were lukewarm on Normani. Rashad went last. I can’t even tell you how many times they danced in the order they finished. All the “Rashad is the winner” signals were there.

But here’s where I have a problem. We have new producers. And they might not fall into the same patterns that they used to. They could be engineering a shocking win. Read more..

May 23, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing With The Stars Season 24, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Let’s all cheer for being at the finale of what has been an extremely annoying season of DWTS. Almost enough to make one vow to not watch anymore. And if not for the blogging, I wouldn’t be watching the show any more. But someone has to point out all the BS and I guess that’s our job.

Note that I’m traveling on both Monday and Tuesday so I’m not entirely sure that I will have the time to do a final DBTN that I usually do between Monday night and Tuesday night. Hopefully I will be able to – we’ll see.

Now, on to this past week. What happened? I don’t remember. :::yawn::: The only thing I really remember is the judges acting all shocked when Simone was eliminated. Give me a BREAK! If you were really surprised by Simone being eliminated, you don’t deserve to be a judge on this show that’s been around for 24 seasons now. I can’t believe….refuse to believe…that the judges think they can nitpick someone to death for 9 weeks and that it doesn’t have an impact. They certainly have egos, and believe that they direct the audience – so why would they believe that their constant assault on Simone’s dancing had no direct influence on the voting? The girl is an OLYMPIC gymnast and probably has had the toughest judging and criticism throughout her young life that one can imagine – yet she was brought to tears by these erratic, often mean-spirited, judges.  Read more..

May 20, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing With The Stars Season 24, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Every week I have to ask myself, how low will the producers/judges go? Every week. It didn’t used to be like this. This show has become a POS, nearly unbearable to watch. I find that sad, honestly. Are they going to find anyone who wants to do it besides the desperate celebs, Pro dancers who need jobs and other pros who have nothing better to do? I suppose there’s always a chance Derek could come back for a season if he’s down to four projects at one time – he seems determined to never have a spare moment. I hope not. I hope he’s gone for good – he might like the teaching, but I don’t think most of his fans want to see him in that fake, manipulated situation any more. Not to mention that whoever he gets as a celeb is going to get beat up to make sure they don’t win.

Lots of talk this week about the judges’ comments. You know, this isn’t the first time that Len has been horribly cruel, beyond the pale. He’s done it before. What’s different now is that instead of a one-off Len temper tantrum, it’s part of a much larger campaign to make sure the chosen one gets to the finale. And others don’t. Everywhere you turn, the show has changed in ways to attempt to get one specific person to the finale. Everything they are doing now, has been done before…but never all at the same time. And why? So Val stays to the end? If Val was all that big a deal, he wouldn’t need the help. Derek, the one that Val appears to obsesses over more than any fan does, never needed this sort of help. Hell, MAKS never needed this sort of help – he may not have won but one time, but he was legit popular without the pimping and over blown fawning. Derek and Maks have both had partners who couldn’t dance. Derek has WON with partners who had no training at all. In his 18 seasons on the show, they’ve tried to give him duds (tried hard, at times) but still never finished lower than 6th (twice) – most of the time cracking the top 4. With NON-dancers and dancers alike. Because he’s good and he works HARD. Read more..

May 12, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing With The Stars Season 24, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Ya gotta look at that leader board and think they have it ranked how they would like it to go, right?  I don’t think they’re going to get their wish, and this coming week the judges scores could be quite illustrative as to what the current agenda is.

Anyway, my record isn’t great this season, but it’s been so stellar in previous seasons (pats self on back) that I keep plugging away. But it does beg the question: what is different this season?? As I’ve said in the comments, I think it’s that 2 or 3 contestants are getting such a lion’s share of the votes, that everyone else is vulnerable EVERY week. One bad score and you’re gone. Now, before you jump to the conclusion that Bonner must be getting a ton of votes, remember it’s not just who’s getting votes, but who ISN’T getting votes.  Bonner was not at the bottom last week so Nick had to cover the spead (and couldn’t) and Bonner only needed 7,500 more votes per million votes cast to beat Nancy – that is NOTHING. Chump change. David also needed very little to cover the spread between him and Nancy and he obviously did because he’s still there.

What does all this mean? Well, nothing, anymore. 🙂 It’s a new week now and they’ve kinda jury rigged the leader board to protect one person and make it hard for our dark horse – Bonner – to continue to stick around. There is no more low hanging fruit, I don’t think – he’s it.

They’ve given EVERYONE except Bonner and David nice fat cushions so they should be safe. SHOULD BE. These kinds of margins have been beaten before and this is a week that could make things interesting. I would put some money on them putting Bonner and Normani in jeopardy and then sending Bonner home – stimulates the Harmonizers for next week when she’s much more likely to need the votes and it creates lots of drama.  Anyway, I skip ahead. What are Bonner’s chances?

He needs less than 4k votes per million votes cast to stay over David. I know I say this every week, but I just don’t see that happening. David is a freshly retired Cub. They play his dances with Lindsay during rain delays…he came within 8% of Rashad on the dance off, which is quite an accomplishment.

Side note: Speaking of the dance off, did you notice that the judges never did a split decision this past week? They almost always have at least one of those…and they should have had a least one of those because they were close in dance quality in most places. Makes you wonder if they were DETERMINED to make sure that America didn’t screw up their decision…perhaps they are afraid of what might happen this week? They gotta be gun shy after losing Heather and Nancy.

Anyway…there isn’t a lot more to say. Bonner only needs about 4k more votes per million votes cast to be safe over David, and if he can’t beat David then he needs nearly 32k more votes per million votes cast to beat either Simone or Rashad – it’s not that that’s a huge spread, it’s that is Simone and Rashad. I would literally be actually shocked if Bonner were to stay over either of those two. I just don’t see it happening.  If he were to beat Normani, it would mean he got more than 47k more votes per million votes cast in order to stay.  It has happened in the past, for sure – but Bonner isn’t on the same level as Mark Warner and Normani is a bit better off than Audrina (I think…). I find this to be highly unlikely…which means Normani is probably safe, along with Simone and Rashad.

That leaves us with Bonner and David, and I think David is still raking in the votes to the point that Bonner can’t cover the spread.

But let’s say I’m wrong and that Bonner is doing much better than I think he is in votes relative to the other remaining contestants.  For Normani to be eliminated, ALL of the following things would have to happen:

  • Bonner would have to get 47,300 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
  • David would have to get 43,400 more votes per million votes cast than Normani, AND;
  • Simone AND Rashad would each have to get 15,800 more votes per million votes cast than Normani.

Now, either Simone or Rashad might be getting those votes, but I don’t think both Bonner and David are…so Normani is likely safe. What about Simone and Rashad? Well, ALL of the following would have to happen for them to be eliminated:

  • Bonner would have to get 31,500 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • David would have to get 27,600 more votes per million votes cast, AND;
  • Simone or Rashad would have to get ONE more voter per million votes cast over the other to be safe, AND;
  • Simone or Rashad DON’T get 15,800 more votes per million votes cast than Normani.

Those numbers tell me that Simone, Rashad and Normani are surely safe. And I believe David is safe. So, what do you all think? It seems pretty apparent to me that Bonner’s time has finally come. But, I’ve been wrong before… 🙂

May 3, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)