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DWTS Season 27, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers and What it Takes to Win

As you know, it’s pretty hard (if not impossible) to do a real “Dancing by the Numbers” when the show is set up like it is this season. That is, the winner will be determined this Monday by *last week’s* votes, this weeks live vote and this weeks dance scores. It’s kind of crap – but at least they added a live vote to last weeks votes so if you voted for JP you have a shot to vote for someone else. Here are some important points from the press release before someone says, “but Heidi, the winner is determined only by the live vote” – not so, kids. Don’t listen to (other) people on the internet. 😉 Note the emphasis (added by me) in the second paragraph.

For the Repeat Dance, each couple will perform a tango, cha cha or Charleston. The Repeat Dance scores will be combined with the Freestyle Dance scores for a judges’ final tally. The judges’ tally will be combined with viewers’ votes from the previous week. Additionally, viewers can participate in an online-only live vote for the remaining couples, where, at the end of the night, one of them will be crowned the “Dancing with the Stars” champion.

Viewers will be allowed to participate in an online-only live vote at http://DWTSLiveVote.com. Voting will open at the beginning of the live broadcast and close approximately five minutes after the last dance. The live vote will only be available during the live broadcast in the Eastern and Central time zones. However, any individuals with access to http://DWTSLiveVote.com will be permitted to vote while the vote is open, regardless of their time zone (provided they are voting from within the U.S. and Puerto Rico).

First, let’s take a quick look at what it took for JP and Joe to be eliminated last week. As per usual, I see people getting hysterical, thinking this means Bobby is going to win. Or Alexis. Here was the leaderboard:

Dancer Score Team Dance Total % of total points awarded
Milo 27.00 27.00 54.00 16.82%
Evanna 30.00 28.00 58.00 18.07%
Bobby 21.00 24.00 45.00 14.02%
Juan Pablo 30.00 30.00 60.00 18.69%
Alexis 28.00 30.00 58.00 18.07%
Joe 22.00 24.00 46.00 14.33%
Total Points Awarded 321.00 1.00

What did Bobby have to do to be safe over Joe and JP?? Well, not a lot when it comes to Joe. A huge number when it comes to JP.

% Different Votes Needed Per Million
Bobby vs. Joe 0.31% 3,115
Bobby vs. Milo 2.80% 28,037
Bobby vs. Alexis/Evanna 4.05% 40,498
Bobby vs. JP 4.67% 46,729

But remember, this doesn’t mean everyone and their brother is voting for Bobby – it could easily mean that no one was voting for JP. Courtney and I have been saying since day one that he has had little to no impact. Good dancer? Of course. But very Juan Note (tm Courtney). 🙂 For Bobby to be safe in a double, he had to beat two people. He obviously beat Joe (3,116 votes per million) and JP (46,730 votes per million).  In order for JP to go home, though, it wasn’t just Bobby that beat him, it was EVERYONE.

Milo vs. JP 1.87% 18,692
Alexis/Evanna vs. JP 0.62% 6,231

That number on the far right is the number of votes per million votes cast that Milo or Alexis AND Evanna got to stay over JP.  So, everyone got more votes than he did. Hell, maybe even Joe did – but we’ll never know, because Joe was also in the bottom two.

Anyway, moving on –

So, to determine what it will take to WIN this season, I’m going to make a wild guess at the scores each couple will receive – in many cases I’m going to assume that they score similarly to how they scored last week. This is what I typically do during the live show and it has worked out reasonably well. I’ll let you know where I make any changes.

Now, without JP and Joe in the mix, the over all vote total decreases. I’m going assume that everyone except Bobby gets a 30 in their freestyle. I’m also going to assume that Bobby does a bit better in his re-do dance, scoring a 24. Alexis stays the same. I’m also going to assume that last week was a fluke for Milo and that he, along with Evanna, gets perfect scores. I’m thinking that, barring disaster, the judges are going to like either Milo or Evanna for the win and will score accordingly, putting Alexis just slightly behind them. Here’s what the leader board would look like in this scenario.

Dancer Re-do Dance Freestyle Total % of total points awarded
Milo 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.09%
Evanna 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.09%
Bobby 24.00 28.00 52.00 22.61%
Alexis 28.00 30.00 58.00 25.22%
Total Points Awarded 230

It’s always frighteningly close in the finale, but most of the time, the right person – or the right top two – emerges in the end.  What we will find out is if the lower number of voters – and the correspondingly lower number of voters – will throw a wrench into what is typically somewhat predictable end result for the show.  I think it unlikely, but you never know. Do the shippers or Bobby’s fans have strong enough fanbases to over rule the will of the average viewer?  I tend to think they’ll be offset by JP, Evanna, and  Milo fans pissed off that Bobby is still there.   If I’m even close to right, what will it take for Bobby to win the whole thing?

Bobby vs. Alexis 2.61% 26,087
Bobby vs. Evanna/Milo 3.48% 34,783

So, for Bobby to win, he would need to get roughly 26,100 more votes per million votes cast than Alexis and 34,800 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH Evanna and Milo.  Those are some decent numbers. He may be able to pass Alexis – and I wager he probably will, since in any normal season she would have been eliminated a couple weeks ago (showmance week, possibly).  But I don’t see him getting past either the Potter kid or the Disney kid – both have fanbases of their own and are very good to great dancers.  People who tend to tune in only for the finale will likely vote for the best dancer, if they vote at all.   I do think with the addition of a live vote, the judges will play it safe and NOT hand out any pity scores – that is, they won’t know for sure how he’s doing so he’s unlikely to get two perfect scores. I’ll be surprised if they give him one perfect score.

What will it take for Alexis to win? Well, if I’m close on the scores it only takes getting about 9k more votes per million votes cast than BOTH  Evanna and Milo AND she needs for Bobby to not cover the spread.  Meaning she needs for him to NOT get the 26k more votes per million votes cast than her.   She could maybe get past one of Evanna or Milo, but I don’t see her beating both of them.

What will it take for Evanna or Milo to win? Well first off, they need for Bobby to not cover the spread of  about 34,800 more votes per million votes cast. Second, they need for Alexis to not cover her spread of about 9k more votes per million votes cast.  If neither spread gets covered – meaning that Bobby and Alexis get 3rd and 4th places, then whichever of Evanna or Milo gets more votes, wins.  It can be as little as by ONE vote.   Yes. ONE VOTE.  So, if you have a favorite between those two, you best vote your fingers to the bone during the show. Every vote is going to count.  As they always do. 🙂

What do I think WILL happen on Monday night?? Well, I think Milo is going to take it home.  I think they will finish like this:

4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Evanna
Winner – Milo

Now ask me what I WANT to happen on Monday night. 🙂 Here’s what I want to happen – and honestly, it’s a pretty tough call. Even money says to me that either Evanna or Milo wins, but since I so rarely get what I want when it comes to this show, I hedge my bets. Here’s what I WANT to happen:

4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Milo
Winner – Evanna

I think it’s really too close to call between Evanna and Milo and everything hinges on not only the dancing and the scoring on Monday night – but I suspect a lot will depend on the spin and how each couple is portrayed. I’ve never wanted a pro to talk about how they’ve never won before – time for Keo to speak up, man. 🙂 If Bobby shows his true colors – the colors I’ve been hearing about on his radio show – then that helps Alexis. I don’t think Milo can do anything wrong, per se, it’s more about how his competitors look on their own. Keo’s real emotion the other week when Erin was talking about how she teases him and comments on how he’s never made it this far – that felt like a show-winning moment to me. But was it?? It was much more genuine and heartfelt than anything coming from Alexis and Alan (or Bobby and Sharna) – but was it enough?? I sure as hell hope so. That was a moment where I sat up and said, “Damn, they could win this thing.”

What do you think??

November 17, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective

This is for those viewers who claim either the judges don’t matter or the votes don’t matter – both are weighted EQUALLY in who stays or who goes home. If you continue to imply one or the other rules, ya need to shut it. You don’t know what you’re talking about. 🙂

Now, long time readers/viewers probably don’t need too much of a retrospective – they know how this show works by now. But for those of you interesting in just what Joe and Bobby needed, vote-wise, in order to stick around – and for those of you claiming they’re getting “tons of votes”, here are some actual numbers.   Reminder: Week 6 votes were combined with Week 7 scores to determine who would go home. Yes, I still hate that they do it this way because then the judges can use their scores to try to get rid of someone – if they know the vote totals. And can actually do math. I’m back and forth on the former and highly skeptical on the latter. 😉

How did the night end up per the leader board?

I would be SO happy if the top two scorers last week were the last two standing – and I think they stand a real chance of that being the case. But I digress.  Joe was pretty far down on the bottom, compared even to Bobby and John. But this is the thing people always forget about two-dance nights – the higher the number of points, the smaller the spread that has to be beaten.  So, what did Joe need, vote-wise, in order to be safe?

These are NOT big numbers – not at all. You might say, “but John is right in the demo” (so is Joe, unfortunately) and “DeMarcus is a popular football player”. Well, when you are constantly denigrated by the judges (John and DeMarcus) combined with the likely lower number of votes (giving fanbases more power relative to the average viewer), these things matter less. Whether you like it or not, people have sheep-like tendencies and tend to believe stuff that is repeated over and over and over.  I also tend to agree with Courtney that DeMarcus’ dancing suffered once he got hurt.  Football players grow up needing to avoid injuries. The mental impact was probably not small.

The reasons for Bobby still being around is even more striking.

Bobby only needed ONE more vote per million than DeMarcus and 2.3k votes per million to stay over John.  This is margin of error territory here folks. And for those of you who think that the showmance is real and don’t understand why many of us roll our eyes and grit our teeth…it obviously works.  See below.

By any conventional wisdom since this show began, Alexis has been in danger of being eliminated since day one. She stayed over Tinashe likely due to demographics…she continues to stick likely due to showmancing.  Not so sure she’ll be so lucky on Monday night.  John only needed 2.3k votes per million votes cast to stay over her. A few seasons ago, he would have stayed easily.  But, again, the combination of showmancing and the lower number of likely voters means she’s still hanging on. DeMarcus only needed 4.6k more votes per million votes cast to stay over her and he couldn’t manage it. Showmancing works, ya’ll.

So, now that John and DeMarcus are gone, your low hanging fruit may finally be in danger.  Joe and Bobby, and to a lesser extent Alexis. She’s only low hanging fruit due to her lack of fanbase – she’s not a bad dancer. And, honestly, Bobby has shown some improvement. I just wish he would quit the whining.

If the scores remain relatively the same, it could be a very interesting night. Joe would be a good bit below Bobby and Alexis in terms of score, but not out of reach in terms of making up the vote. So who’s fanbase is stronger, Joe’s or Bobby’s?? Alexis is ahead of both of them but she’s in easy striking distance of Bobby (only about 6,100 votes). She’s a bit farther out of reach for Joe (about 25k votes per million). So, a couple things will be tested tomorrow night – Bobby’s real popularity relative to the Bachelor franchise and the strength of the showmance.

IMO, either Joe will finally fail or Alexis will be the next one sent home. Why is Bobby safe? Well, if Joe beats Bobby, he probably beats Alexis too AND it’s likely that Bobby beats Alexis because the numbers are so small (6,100 votes). What if they do another double? Well, that’s when we find out who is more popular – Joe or Bobby? Beats the hell out of me. I think Joe is probably more recognizable to the DWTS audience and for some crazy reason they like him. So I give him the edge over Bobby.

Finally, much has been made of Evanna being in jeopardy more than once. Of course it’s possible that anyone can be eliminated in this new world of lower viewers (which likely equals lower vote totals). But just like the audience is on to the producers games and how they operate, the producers are on to the FANS and sites like this one. Once upon a time, Jennifer Grey was the only winner in the history of the show to have been in jeopardy. But that was YEARS ago. The producers have learned how to change it up, just like the fans have learned how the producers do things. That makes everything uncertain.

But just like lower vote totals make it easier for fanbases to save their favorites, it also makes the judges slightly more relevant. I tend to think our final three are going to be Milo, Evanna and JP. And if those three aren’t the final three, well, this show becomes – finally – only a popularity contest and not a dance competition. Yes…it has always been heavily reliant on popularity or lack thereof. But it will reach new highs (lows?) of popularity only if Evanna, Milo or JP are eliminated tomorrow night.

November 11, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week Four – Dancing by the Numbers RETROSPECTIVE!

As I promised during the live blog, we’ll take a look at exactly what led to Tinashe’s elimination this past Monday. Beyond just a lack of votes, that is.

Of course, that’s what it all comes down to – she wasn’t getting the votes. It’s not necessarily that Joe was getting a ton of votes, it’s just as likely that she wasn’t getting votes.  Yes, there is a difference there. We have no way of knowing if Joe is next in line to leave or if he’s going to make it to the end – this elimination is in no way predictive, no matter what his sadly misguided fans like to claim. 🙂  And before you go crazy and try to tell me that the show is a popularity contest, not a dance contest – just stop. The show is whatever the viewer wants or needs it to be – it’s not up to you to make that determination for other people. The clash comes when the Bachelor Fan’s wants don’t coincide with other viewers wants. I WANT the show to have great dancing. I want the show to show someone who might not have been great to start grow into someone really good or great (see Bindi Irwin, for one).  I like a fun journey. And sorry kids, Joe doesn’t provide any of those things for me. Tinashe did. So quit your bitching about how some of us want Joe gone – deal with it. We certainly have to deal with JOE, so suck it up.

Anyway, Joe had to climb a serious hill in order to stay on the show over Tinashe.  We’ll really only look at Joe and Tinashe to start with, because he was the very bottom of the leader board, while she was the one who was eliminated. No, this is not the first time this has happened and it’s unlikely to be the last.  Audrina, Chynna, Brandy, Sabrina….the worst of all being Audrina who was way in the lead and got beat by Kurt Warner…who was eliminated two weeks later.  Kurt Warner had to get 48,400 more votes per million votes cast than Audrina and he did it. She went home.  Tinashe is in second place in the hardest elimination of all time. Joe had to get 47,415 more votes per million votes cast than Tinashe. And he clearly did.

Does that mean he’s killing it in the votes? Nope. This is hard to explain…let’s break it down and see if you can follow my logic, and the math. First, who got what scores? Read more..

October 21, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week THREE – Dancing by the Numbers!

Okay, so DBTN is a bit different going forward. Since the eliminations are now going to be last weeks votes and this coming weeks scores, that means that it’s much more “guessing” than it was before. We have to assume that most of the couples are going to score similarly to what they did this past week. And a lot of the time that’s not too far off base. But one thing I always wonder about with a set up like this is…if Len, at least, knows who’s going home, will he score them HIGHER or the SAME as he did last week. Or lower, to make him look prescient?? I guess we won’t know until the end of the season.

Anyway….

Based on last week’s scores, we have who you might expect at the top of the leaderboard: Milo, Juan Pablo and Tinashe. I personally think that DeMarcus should be up there with them – anyone else notice how many footballers have been consistently under scored for weeks in years past?? I sure do. In any case, I doubt he’s in any danger. If Milo, Juan Pablo and Tinashe score similarly to what they did last week, they will also likely be safe. Read more..

October 7, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week TWO – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, here we are again! I feel like I’m finally back in the swing of things. 🙂 Last night’s show wasn’t bad at all, except for the music that some of the couples had that totally didn’t match the style. That always takes something away from the dance for me, particularly when it’s an argentine tango. Other than that, I think everyone did quite well. Not only that, we have a nice spread on the scores which seems more realistic. I wasn’t terribly upset by anyone’s score, for a change, although there are one or two couples who are a bit too high relative to their competitors.

My current favorites? DeMarcus, Alexis, Evanna, Tinashe and Milo. I feel for Danelle and I like all the rest just fine, but that’s my top 5. 🙂 How did they all do? Read more..

October 2, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week ONE – Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective

Okay, so I’ve been in Italy. And before that I was tied up with World of Dance and a heavy work load. But now I’m ready for DWTS. 🙂

Of course, before I can talk about the numbers, I have to actually watch the show.  Here are a few of my thoughts as I watched Night ONE:

  1. Who are all these people in the opening number? Don’t get me wrong – it was a good opening number, but I didn’t recognize ANYONE mainly because there were TOO MANY people.
  2. Brandon and Tinashe make a very gorgeous couple.
  3. Why do they have both lapel mics and desk mics on the judges?? Is it really necessary that we hear them that well when so much of what they say is utter BS?
  4. Milo is cuuuuute. But dang, Disney?? We have to have Disney every season?  Good dancer though!!
  5. Hold the fucking phone: Mary Lou gets a *7* from Len and Milo gets a 6?? Are we going to start the bullshit so soon??  And don’t get me started on Evanna. Len has always been the designated field leveler, but I don’t recall it being this obvious this soon.  Gotta keep the Disney kid and the Potter kid down and make this thing a competition.  There was NOTHING in Evanna’s dance that said 5. That is just unbelievable.
  6. Robert Roldan….::::SWOOOOONNNN::::  I luf him.
  7. Some of these contestants opening sound more scripted than usual.
  8. Sharna is the first pro to pull in the troupe this season…and possibly the first pro to NEED the troupe. Love the Nashville background though.
  9. Cheryl Burke looks amazing and it’s good to have her back in the ballroom.
  10. Nikki is pretty funny….but so completely unknown.
  11. Alexis dances better than most models….but we won’t find out until week 2 or 3 if she’s more Brooke Burke or Joanna Krupa.
  12. Very good first outing for Brandon.
  13. Demarcus Ware is HOT. And he may well win this season.

Read more..

September 30, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 26, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, last week’s results certainly seem to indicate that a lack of PR is a killer. Arike was ahead of FOUR people in scores, not counting Kareem and she was eliminated. And that’s a shame because I certainly liked her more than Jennie. Ah well. That’s the way it goes.  Kareem couldn’t cover a small spread to stay over Jennie and Josh, and Arike just wasn’t getting any votes, judging by how many votes those below her needed to stay. Kinda surprising.

So, let’s take a look at where everyone stands on the leader board. Unfortunately, we can only use this as a guess because if they continue to use the show day scores to determine who goes home on that night, then these numbers are essentially meaningless.  It’s only a bit instructive. To top it off, the judges can easily base their scores on who they want to go home – if they know who has the votes. They can take away the public’s power. And that sucks. But it is what it is.

What I will say is that we kind of have to base everything on how people are doing in general and make the assumption that there won’t be any huge changes. And so far, the only changes in trend are that Josh was scored lower due to going first, and Arike jumped in the standings by a good bit. Mirai and  Adam stayed at the top, Tonya dropped a bit to tie with Chris and Jennie is with Josh in the bottom.  I’m sure it’s totally a coincidence that the are three two way ties remaining and the dancers are neatly ranked exactly as you would expect, even though everyone was “randomly” split into teams. I’m sure it wasn’t planned at all. :::rolls eyes:::

Once Arike and Kareem left, Josh and Jennie are the low folks on the leaderboard. It does make you wonder though, if they are really using same day scores – because I just can’t believe that Jennie pulled it off over Arike. Which makes me wonder when the teams were decided and if it was really a schoolyard pick. Doubtful. Totally a coincidence that the two people who didn’t tie with anyone are the ones who went home. I don’t even know what that means, because those judges scores are done, right? It will be this past weeks votes with the coming weeks judges scores to determine who dances in the finale.

So, as I noted above, Josh and Jennie needed roughly 13k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Arike and they apparently got those votes. Chris and Tonya needed 7.5k more votes per million votes cast –  it’s far less surprising that they got those votes than Jennie getting them.  But what’s going to happen this coming week? Who the hell knows.  If I was betting I would say that Mirai and Adam stay at the top of the leader board. I would also bet that the producers prefer Tonya over Josh (ratings! PR!!), hence she might rise on the leaderboard as well – it might also depend on who’s getting the votes. Judges like to be right, after all.

Let’s assume the standings remain relatively the same after the judges score on Monday, the possible exception being Josh rising on the leaderboard – I would bet Jennie or Chris go first, and get the lower score. But let’s use last weeks scores and you can switch Josh with Jennie or Chris to see how he might do if he rises on the board. What do Jennie/Josh need to do to make it to the finale?

Note I removed Kareem and Arike’s scores from the totals to make it more realistic, seeing as how they won’t be scored on Monday night. As you can see, Jennie and Josh theoretically need only 7.4k more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Chris and Tonya – that is not much. But this Monday you need to beat THREE people in order to make it to the finale, so Jennie (for example) would need to get ONE more vote than Josh AND get the 7.4k more votes per million votes cast to beat BOTH Chris and Tonya. One won’t do it – to stay you have to beat all three people. I doubt very much that Jennie beats any of those three (and definitely not all three), regardless of what order they are in.

But, perhaps a better way to look at it is who is most likely to NOT get beaten or who is likely getting the votes. How are Mirai and Adam looking?  If you look again at table 3, you’ll note that if the spreads stay the same and Adam and Mirai remain firmly at the top of the leaderboard, it will take a lot of votes to dislodge them. In second place are Chris and Tonya – I think one of those two might get replaced with Josh.

Anyway, do you think than Jennie can beat out any of Josh, Chris or Tonya? I don’t. I think she’s low woman on the leader board.  That leaves Tonya, Josh and Chris.  Of those three, who is most likely to be the top dog? Depends on the spread, of course, but I think it goes one of two ways. One: Josh regains his standing from week 1 and goes to the finale with Mirai and Adam. Two: I’m not alone in my dislike of Mirai and she’s a shocking elimination, opening the door for both Tonya and Josh to go to the finale with Adam. Of course, the third possibility is that Tonya is killing it and she goes to the finale with Mirai and Adam.

Too much depends on crappy judging – it’s impossible to tell. If they continue true to form, I tend to think that number one is most likely…but I’m hoping for number two. 😉

May 10, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 26, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

After the show, I started writing this post and re-looking at the numbers once Jamie and Johnny were eliminated…and realized that I’m going to have a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact that there are only three more weeks and two more people go home next week. That’s…crazy. There are only 8 couples left and not a ton of low hanging fruit. Interesting.

Well, this show needs a bit of a shake up in any case. 😊

Who’s my favorite thus far?? Well, I have to say, I really love what Jenna did with Adam. That was a ton of fun. I’m not particularly a Sharna fan and…hold on…I need to go actually watch that dance.

Okay…after that I AM a Josh Norman fan!! That was pretty hot. I still think that Mirai is the best dancer and Adam is a close second with a choreographic advantage…but that doesn’t mean either of them will necessarily win this season. Josh is right up there with them and could win this thing. We’ll see!! I also don’t think Tonya should be counted out.

This season is going to be incredibly tough from a numbers standpoint – I don’t feel like many of the typical metrics I use to GUESS who might be going home are actually there this season. I feel like so much of how well people do this season will depend on nearly instantaneous impressions that people have of a given couple. Typically, that impression is aided by their “fame” at some level prior to the show. Athletes who have been on this show in the past have VERY specific fanbases, unlike actors, models and other types of celebs. When it comes to these athletes, Kareem, the ice skaters and the football player have the odds in their favor with the average viewer – largely due to the popularity of their sport and the name recognition. Coincidentally (or not) the ice skaters and the football player also happen to be the best dancers…and Kareem is an icon. So, I suspect that the ice skaters and the football player are more likely to last to the end. Kareem might not due to lower scores.

Anyway, let’s refresh our memories on how everyone did in terms of scores.

 

Now, if I remember this correctly, the live voting during the show plus judges scores were used to eliminate Jamie and Johnny. The judges scores and the voting after the show by phone and online will result in two more people being eliminated this coming week. Who will it be??
Well, I feel reasonably confident that it will be either Kareem, Arike or Jennie. Of course, no one can be sure. Kareem survived week 1, but he didn’t have to do that much to make it.


As you can see above, he only needed 5k and 10k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Johnny and Jamie, respectively. In order to stay this week he needs 14k more than Arike AND nearly 20k more than Chris or Jennie. Two people going home, means he has to beat two people. I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could do that – half the battle is name recognition and he’s got it where Arike, Chris and Jennie don’t really. It will be tough though. And if he manages to do it, I think it will be Arike and Jenny.

So let’s say that Kareem gets past Arike and Jennie. What do they need to do in order to be safe?


Chris is tied with Jennie as you recall. Well, he only needs ONE more vote than her to be safe. And he needs for Arike to not get 4.8k more votes per million votes cast than him. I don’t think that will be a problem. Personally, I think Arike beats Jennie – she was just more memorable. Problem is, she needs to beat TWO people. I don’t think she gets the votes to get past Mirai, Tonya, Adam or Josh, so she needs to beat BOTH Chris and Jennie, or she needs to beat one of them and have Kareem not cover the spread.

And this is where it’s really hard. I hate double eliminations. My gut is kinda telling me that Arike and Jennie are going to be eliminated – mainly because I think that Kareem can beat Arike and that everyone beats Jennie….which would mean that Jennie and Arike are the two who would be eliminated.

What do you all think?? Am I half right like I was week one? Or completely wrong?

May 4, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, the dance order from last night is interesting. It’s often instructive, but we won’t actually know until it’s all over.  But I’m surprised to see Lindsey going last. Perhaps it’s so close between Lindsey and Jordan that it makes no difference?  In any case, my sense after last week was that it was between Jordan and Frankie. Now I think it’s between Jordan and Lindsey.

There are fine reasons for any of the final three to win, and I remain much as I was last week in that I would be fine with any of them winning. There is an argument to be made for each, particularly when talking only about the celebrities. They all have pluses and minuses – and I have to say that I’m enjoying a finale where I’m not overly invested in any of the remaining couples.  At the end of the night, Lindsey’s is likely the only freestyle I will carry with me beyond tonight – playing her violin while doing all that dancing? Awesome. And before you cynical lot start – Lindsey is always highly mobile when playing. Not quite THAT mobile…but yes, I believe she was playing.

Another thing that I mentioned in the Live Blog – this is yet another season where the freestyles, while awesome, were not overly special. This is mainly due to the over use of the troupe during the whole season. It reduces the “standout” quality of a lot of the finale dances. Perhaps I watch too much DWTS, but there is something to be said for just two dancers – the pro and their partner – over the course of the whole season. Then, when you get to the end and want to use the troupe, it doesn’t seem like just another week. I suspect that we’re never going to get that aspect of DWTS back.

So, at the end of the night, where does everyone stand on the leaderboard? Much where I expected them to stand – Jordan and Lindsey tied with Frankie a couple points back.

Only four points between Frankie and Lindsey/Jordan. That will likely be enough but you just never know.

For Frankie to get second place, he needs to get roughly 13,000 more votes per million votes cast than either Lindsey or Jordan.

In order to win, Jordan OR Lindsey need for Frankie to NOT get that 13,000 more votes per million votes cast and one of them needs to get ONE more vote per millon votes cast than the other.

I feel like Jordan is going to win. Why? Who knows why, but that’s what my gut is saying.  Let’s break it down.

Factors in Jordan’s favor:

  • His pro has never won.
  • His pro has been killing it for a couple seasons now and has come up short.
  • He’s a great dancer.

Factors against Jordan:

  • His fanbase coming in to this show likely doesn’t stack up to either Frankie or Lindsey, who has 10 million youtube followers. That doesn’t usually count for much if they’re not voting, but they’re more than what Jordan has.
  • It seems like a lot of the audience isn’t connecting with him like they are Frankie.
  • He’s always been a great dancer.

What about Lindsey? What’s working in her favor?

  • She has a huge online fanbase.
  • Mark has the largest pro fanbase of the pros left in the competition.
  • I think her freestyle was most memorable.
  • It’s been so long since Mark won that the show isn’t even close to the same any more. 8 YEARS.
  • Great dancer, sweet personality

Factors working against Lindsey:

  • In spite of how long it’s been, Mark HAS won twice.
  • She had an off week last week.
  • Serious lack of PR compared to the other couples, but possibly due to her and Mark’s schedules.
  • More of a growth arc than Jordan, but still a great dancer coming in.

And then there’s Frankie. He shouldn’t be left out of the pros and cons – it is by no means a foregone conclusion that he’s not going to win or even come in second. I honestly don’t know. So, what’s working for him?

Factors working in Frankie’s favor? Well before the season started I would say only one – nostalgia. That is a big thing, though, when the DWTS fanbase averages 62 and female. But now that we’re at the finale?

  • It seems quite obvious that he’s a fan favorite in a more passionate way than either Jordan or Lindsey.
  • He’s had a real, tangible growth arc.
  • He’s a good dancer. The other two are as well, but they started out talented – and quite a bit younger as well.
  • Serious underdog. Women love an underdog.

Working against Frankie??

  • While good, he’s not the dancer the other two are.
  • 13,000 votes is quite a lot in the finale.
  • Freestyle didn’t have quite the bang that the other two did.

Any of the three could win, and I get the feeling that it’s close – and that we might hear Tom say so this evening. I still feel like Jordan might pull it out. But honestly, it’s too close to call with any certainty.  I could fake certainty and get it right – but that would be luck, wouldn’t it? 🙂

And I’ll be happy no matter how it turns out.

So, what say you??  Jordan? Lindsey? Or Frankie?  Too close to call??

November 21, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 25, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!

This week, like last week, seems fairly obvious with regard to who’s going to go home. But beyond that? This show feels like anybody’s game.

But first things first…let’s not waste any time. The judges were quite clear with their preference this past week, underscoring Drew a bit to make sure he is the one to leave this coming Monday. They didn’t underscore him but by a point or so, but it may not take much more than that. Let’s take a look at the scores.

Read more..

November 17, 2017 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)