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DWTS Season 29, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

I don’t usually do these posts these days because it’s kinda moot with the same day voting/elimination thing. Since they dance, get judges scores, get votes and get eliminated all in one episode, there’s no good way to predict for the coming week. UNTIL you get weeks where the high scorer finds himself in the bottom two and the lowest person on the leader board has yet to see the bottom two…that deserves a bit of discussion. 🙂

In the olden days of DWTS when it was being watched by 20 million people every week and lots of people were voting…it was a much different story than today, when fewer people are watching and voting. There’s not a whole lot of room for error if only thousands of people are voting, compared to millions in the past. And if few people are voting, the outcome is much more likely to be swayed by a sudden surge of panicked voting when someone lands in the bottom. Which explains Skai and Johnny. The other problem is the ability to give ten votes for multiple people – STOP IT. If Johnny or Skai or anyone else is your absolute favorite, than that’s who you have to vote for. Let’s use me as an example. This past Monday I voted for BOTH Nelly and Johnny. By doing that I contributed to Johnny’s total votes, sure…but I also contributed to Nelly being able to over come the margins of the people ahead of him and be safe. Likely at Johnny’s expense. that’s how it works. Nelly needed about 5k more votes per million votes cast than AJ to be safe. Well, if I were giving ten votes to Nelly and ten votes to AJ, I may as well have not voted at all, see? The ten votes for AJ cancel out the ten votes for Nelly. Voting for two people cancels out the votes for the lower scored person – you’re not helping…unless you’re two favorites are both the high scorers AND high vote getters. And you have no way of knowing the latter, only for former. It’s dangerous. I get that it’s hard to wrap the brain around this for some. You’ll have to trust me when I say – only vote for your absolute favorite, or that person could easily go home.

Anyway, here’s all the numbers in one easy table. Hopefully.

Dancer Comparisons % Difference Votes needed
Nelly vs. AJ 0.52% 5,181
Nelly vs. Justina 1.04% 10,363
Nelly vs. Skai/Nev 2.59% 25,907
Nelly vs. Johnny/Kaitlyn 3.11% 31,088
AJ vs. Justina 0.52% 5,181
AJ vs. Skai/Nev 2.07% 20,725
Aj vs. Johnny/Kaitlyn 2.59% 25,907
Justina vs. Skai/Nev 1.55% 15,544
Justina vs. Johnny/Kaitlyn 2.07% 20,725
Skai/Nev vs. Johnny/Kaitlyn 0.52% 5,181

Now, from the above table, it’s very easy to see how Nelly beat AJ. That’s a fairly small number of votes that Nelly needed to beat him. But Johnny?? That’s a lot of votes. And Johnny was safe last week. I think the easiest explanation is that voters are very casual these days and are not doing a lot of same day viewing. As a result, the results can be kinda wild. Easy for that to happen when not many are voting. But I do think that Nelly is getting a good number of votes in addition to Johnny struggling…he’s been low man on the totem pole the past couple weeks and he’s always safe.

I personally think the judges should just score the dances without trying to keep Nelly in the bottom. They also need to stop low balling the first dancer. It’s inexplicable and it’s stupid. Do they realize that the first dancer being the low scorer is extremely consistent? What’s the point of it? How does Justina get a 24, only a point ahead of AJ and tied with Nelly – two far lesser dancers? Crazy. And it’s going to cost them a very good dancer if they keep doing it. Possibly two good dancers, this week.

I also saw a lot of people whining about the judges saving Johnny again. Well, not only is Johnny the better dancer, but what makes you people so sure that AJ wasn’t the lowest combined score? You think the judges don’t know? I bet they do. Yes, Nelly had to get 31k votes to get past Johnny, but AJ had to get 26k. I wouldn’t be so sure of that.

When you look at the above chart, the following is what I see:

  • Kaitlyn only needed one more vote per million votes cast to be safe over Johnny, and;
  • Skai and Nev only needed 5,190 more votes per million votes cast to be safe over Johnny.

That’s nearly half the cast that could easily be safe over Johnny with few votes. Now, I don’t think Nev or Kaitlyn are going anywhere, but Skai should be scared.  Five thousand votes is like a rounding error. 🙂  What else?

  • Justina needed 21k more votes per million votes cast than Johnny, and;
  • AJ needed 26k more votes per million votes cast than Johnny, and;
  • Nelly needed 31k more votes per million votes cast than Johnny.

Clearly Justina and Nelly are doing quite a bit better in the vote department than Johnny is because they weren’t in the bottom two.  So I would say they are relatively safe next week as long as they don’t totally crash relative to everyone else.  It’s possible that Nelly could, but if I were Johnny and Skai, I would be sweating it big time. For that matter, we can’t be positive about the rest of them, only fairly sure.

But based on the above, I’m guessing that Johnny and Skai go home in the double.  Nelly could finally run out of time and one of the two of Johnny and Skai could be safe. We’ll have to wait and see. It’s wild and wacky when half the audience could be watching the next day on their TiVo.

November 13, 2020 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 28, The Semi-Final: DANCING BY THE NUMBERS

I decided that this week would be a good one for a numbers post, mainly due to all the claims of “James was obviously a fan favorite” and other related, somewhat silly commentary. Well, that and I had just a tiny bit of spare time. 😊

Look, I loved James and not just because he’s hot. Well, largely because he’s hot. He’s really grown into his own face. Dude is hot and is a pretty good dancer. Best dancer ever on DWTS? Of course not. But that’s not a requirement to win the competition, believe it or not. The only requirement to win the show is that you have the highest combined score. Period. Now, of course, for a show that really IS a dance competition, having someone like Bobby Bones win is just ridiculous. But it’s not *unfair*. Just ridiculous. Like Bobby himself. Ridiculous. And very off putting to the general audience. Read more..

November 21, 2019 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 28, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers Roundup

I have a little bit of time between the end of my vacation and the start of week 3 tonight to do a bit of a round up on what happened with the numbers this week. Now, the surprising thing isn’t really S@$n, but Lamar. S@$n was given some very simple choreo by Lindsay, who happens to be something of a genius, and he didn’t totally screw it up. Is he a good dancer? No, he’s not. He couldn’t even raise more than $3,800 bucks for his lime week one shirt. :::shrug::: But he didn’t make any glaring mistakes. Simple is the key with him. Anyway, much more surprising is Lamar, especially considering S@$n’s score for night two. Check out the vote totals:

Lamar was a solid five points below S@$n when both dances were done and much farther below both Ray and Mary. S@$n was only two points down from Ray and 4 points down from Mary – not nearly the lift that Lamar had to do. Because of S@$n’s score on night two, what was a 5k vote gap became much larger for Lamar. Check it out.

For Lamar to be safe, he did all of the following:

  • He may or may not have gotten 12k more votes per million votes cast than S@$n, AND;
  • He got 16,900 more votes per million votes cast than Ray, AND;
  • He got 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than Mary.

For the rest of the contestants we don’t really know how he did. We’re not sure if he did better than S@$n because both men were safe. Those votes are no joke – and Lamar has had issues in the past, so the fact that he got those votes is doubly surprising. As for S@$n, he didn’t have to work nearly so hard and his safety is no surprise at all, when you look at the numbers.

Seriously, he needed less than 5k votes per million votes cast to be safe over Ray and less then 9.7k to be safe over Mary. Not such a big deal.  Will it continue? Stay tuned, we will see. And I will be voting for his main competition, in addition to my favorites. But if the judges screw the pooch like they did last week, I may just throw in the towel. The whole POINT of having the judges make the final decision was theoretically because they have more sense than the audience (looking at you, season 17) – now I’m not so sure that’s the case.

September 30, 2019 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 28, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

I’m really not sure this is going to be a regular post this season, if the voting and the eliminations are going like they’re reportedly going to go tomorrow night. We’ll have to wait and see – I might end up with the numbers in the live blog and then having a “what happened” with the numbers sometime during the week after the show (unless it’s really obvious what happened). Hard to say. We’ll play it by ear. 🙂

So I’m hearing all kinds of complaints about the very low scoring paddles being used and the fact that the voting might all be live this season. To the former, I say – it’s about damn time!! Lamar and S__S_____ were NOT great and they didn’t deserve better than what they got. Of course, the judges still manage to screw up the middle of the pack (Kel and Ally get 16 but Lauren got a 19 and Mary got a 17??? Uhhhh…). As for the voting, and whatever the “new” elimination stuff is that is coming, it seems very clear to me what they’re trying to do – prevent another Bobby Bones. And I’m okay with that.  It’s not that they hate the west coast viewers – please. It’s not even that they “hate” Bobby Bones. It’s about the credibility of a dancing show which even FEWER people will watch if the actual dancers get voted off regularly. Does anyone actually WANT to watch Bobby dance besides his cult followers? Not me. And where do Bobby’s cult followers go when he’s off the show?? Do THEY still watch? I doubt it. Which would you prefer – all the good dancers getting eliminated because they don’t have a power fanbase or the ability to vote? Yes, yes, yes…the show has always been a popularity contest, but back in the day big fanbases were offset by the general viewing audience which tended to be MUCH larger. Combine the general viewer with the judges and most of the time, one of the better dancers won. Let’s face it, Bobby Bones beating ANY of the other top five from last season is pretty ridiculous.  If it got to be a regular thing, I would have no desire to watch the show, let alone blog about it. Read more..

September 22, 2019 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers and What it Takes to Win

As you know, it’s pretty hard (if not impossible) to do a real “Dancing by the Numbers” when the show is set up like it is this season. That is, the winner will be determined this Monday by *last week’s* votes, this weeks live vote and this weeks dance scores. It’s kind of crap – but at least they added a live vote to last weeks votes so if you voted for JP you have a shot to vote for someone else. Here are some important points from the press release before someone says, “but Heidi, the winner is determined only by the live vote” – not so, kids. Don’t listen to (other) people on the internet. 😉 Note the emphasis (added by me) in the second paragraph.

For the Repeat Dance, each couple will perform a tango, cha cha or Charleston. The Repeat Dance scores will be combined with the Freestyle Dance scores for a judges’ final tally. The judges’ tally will be combined with viewers’ votes from the previous week. Additionally, viewers can participate in an online-only live vote for the remaining couples, where, at the end of the night, one of them will be crowned the “Dancing with the Stars” champion.

Viewers will be allowed to participate in an online-only live vote at http://DWTSLiveVote.com. Voting will open at the beginning of the live broadcast and close approximately five minutes after the last dance. The live vote will only be available during the live broadcast in the Eastern and Central time zones. However, any individuals with access to http://DWTSLiveVote.com will be permitted to vote while the vote is open, regardless of their time zone (provided they are voting from within the U.S. and Puerto Rico).

First, let’s take a quick look at what it took for JP and Joe to be eliminated last week. As per usual, I see people getting hysterical, thinking this means Bobby is going to win. Or Alexis. Here was the leaderboard:

Dancer Score Team Dance Total % of total points awarded
Milo 27.00 27.00 54.00 16.82%
Evanna 30.00 28.00 58.00 18.07%
Bobby 21.00 24.00 45.00 14.02%
Juan Pablo 30.00 30.00 60.00 18.69%
Alexis 28.00 30.00 58.00 18.07%
Joe 22.00 24.00 46.00 14.33%
Total Points Awarded 321.00 1.00

What did Bobby have to do to be safe over Joe and JP?? Well, not a lot when it comes to Joe. A huge number when it comes to JP.

% Different Votes Needed Per Million
Bobby vs. Joe 0.31% 3,115
Bobby vs. Milo 2.80% 28,037
Bobby vs. Alexis/Evanna 4.05% 40,498
Bobby vs. JP 4.67% 46,729

But remember, this doesn’t mean everyone and their brother is voting for Bobby – it could easily mean that no one was voting for JP. Courtney and I have been saying since day one that he has had little to no impact. Good dancer? Of course. But very Juan Note (tm Courtney). 🙂 For Bobby to be safe in a double, he had to beat two people. He obviously beat Joe (3,116 votes per million) and JP (46,730 votes per million).  In order for JP to go home, though, it wasn’t just Bobby that beat him, it was EVERYONE.

Milo vs. JP 1.87% 18,692
Alexis/Evanna vs. JP 0.62% 6,231

That number on the far right is the number of votes per million votes cast that Milo or Alexis AND Evanna got to stay over JP.  So, everyone got more votes than he did. Hell, maybe even Joe did – but we’ll never know, because Joe was also in the bottom two.

Anyway, moving on –

So, to determine what it will take to WIN this season, I’m going to make a wild guess at the scores each couple will receive – in many cases I’m going to assume that they score similarly to how they scored last week. This is what I typically do during the live show and it has worked out reasonably well. I’ll let you know where I make any changes.

Now, without JP and Joe in the mix, the over all vote total decreases. I’m going assume that everyone except Bobby gets a 30 in their freestyle. I’m also going to assume that Bobby does a bit better in his re-do dance, scoring a 24. Alexis stays the same. I’m also going to assume that last week was a fluke for Milo and that he, along with Evanna, gets perfect scores. I’m thinking that, barring disaster, the judges are going to like either Milo or Evanna for the win and will score accordingly, putting Alexis just slightly behind them. Here’s what the leader board would look like in this scenario.

Dancer Re-do Dance Freestyle Total % of total points awarded
Milo 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.09%
Evanna 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.09%
Bobby 24.00 28.00 52.00 22.61%
Alexis 28.00 30.00 58.00 25.22%
Total Points Awarded 230

It’s always frighteningly close in the finale, but most of the time, the right person – or the right top two – emerges in the end.  What we will find out is if the lower number of voters – and the correspondingly lower number of voters – will throw a wrench into what is typically somewhat predictable end result for the show.  I think it unlikely, but you never know. Do the shippers or Bobby’s fans have strong enough fanbases to over rule the will of the average viewer?  I tend to think they’ll be offset by JP, Evanna, and  Milo fans pissed off that Bobby is still there.   If I’m even close to right, what will it take for Bobby to win the whole thing?

Bobby vs. Alexis 2.61% 26,087
Bobby vs. Evanna/Milo 3.48% 34,783

So, for Bobby to win, he would need to get roughly 26,100 more votes per million votes cast than Alexis and 34,800 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH Evanna and Milo.  Those are some decent numbers. He may be able to pass Alexis – and I wager he probably will, since in any normal season she would have been eliminated a couple weeks ago (showmance week, possibly).  But I don’t see him getting past either the Potter kid or the Disney kid – both have fanbases of their own and are very good to great dancers.  People who tend to tune in only for the finale will likely vote for the best dancer, if they vote at all.   I do think with the addition of a live vote, the judges will play it safe and NOT hand out any pity scores – that is, they won’t know for sure how he’s doing so he’s unlikely to get two perfect scores. I’ll be surprised if they give him one perfect score.

What will it take for Alexis to win? Well, if I’m close on the scores it only takes getting about 9k more votes per million votes cast than BOTH  Evanna and Milo AND she needs for Bobby to not cover the spread.  Meaning she needs for him to NOT get the 26k more votes per million votes cast than her.   She could maybe get past one of Evanna or Milo, but I don’t see her beating both of them.

What will it take for Evanna or Milo to win? Well first off, they need for Bobby to not cover the spread of  about 34,800 more votes per million votes cast. Second, they need for Alexis to not cover her spread of about 9k more votes per million votes cast.  If neither spread gets covered – meaning that Bobby and Alexis get 3rd and 4th places, then whichever of Evanna or Milo gets more votes, wins.  It can be as little as by ONE vote.   Yes. ONE VOTE.  So, if you have a favorite between those two, you best vote your fingers to the bone during the show. Every vote is going to count.  As they always do. 🙂

What do I think WILL happen on Monday night?? Well, I think Milo is going to take it home.  I think they will finish like this:

4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Evanna
Winner – Milo

Now ask me what I WANT to happen on Monday night. 🙂 Here’s what I want to happen – and honestly, it’s a pretty tough call. Even money says to me that either Evanna or Milo wins, but since I so rarely get what I want when it comes to this show, I hedge my bets. Here’s what I WANT to happen:

4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Milo
Winner – Evanna

I think it’s really too close to call between Evanna and Milo and everything hinges on not only the dancing and the scoring on Monday night – but I suspect a lot will depend on the spin and how each couple is portrayed. I’ve never wanted a pro to talk about how they’ve never won before – time for Keo to speak up, man. 🙂 If Bobby shows his true colors – the colors I’ve been hearing about on his radio show – then that helps Alexis. I don’t think Milo can do anything wrong, per se, it’s more about how his competitors look on their own. Keo’s real emotion the other week when Erin was talking about how she teases him and comments on how he’s never made it this far – that felt like a show-winning moment to me. But was it?? It was much more genuine and heartfelt than anything coming from Alexis and Alan (or Bobby and Sharna) – but was it enough?? I sure as hell hope so. That was a moment where I sat up and said, “Damn, they could win this thing.”

What do you think??

November 17, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective

This is for those viewers who claim either the judges don’t matter or the votes don’t matter – both are weighted EQUALLY in who stays or who goes home. If you continue to imply one or the other rules, ya need to shut it. You don’t know what you’re talking about. 🙂

Now, long time readers/viewers probably don’t need too much of a retrospective – they know how this show works by now. But for those of you interesting in just what Joe and Bobby needed, vote-wise, in order to stick around – and for those of you claiming they’re getting “tons of votes”, here are some actual numbers.   Reminder: Week 6 votes were combined with Week 7 scores to determine who would go home. Yes, I still hate that they do it this way because then the judges can use their scores to try to get rid of someone – if they know the vote totals. And can actually do math. I’m back and forth on the former and highly skeptical on the latter. 😉

How did the night end up per the leader board?

I would be SO happy if the top two scorers last week were the last two standing – and I think they stand a real chance of that being the case. But I digress.  Joe was pretty far down on the bottom, compared even to Bobby and John. But this is the thing people always forget about two-dance nights – the higher the number of points, the smaller the spread that has to be beaten.  So, what did Joe need, vote-wise, in order to be safe?

These are NOT big numbers – not at all. You might say, “but John is right in the demo” (so is Joe, unfortunately) and “DeMarcus is a popular football player”. Well, when you are constantly denigrated by the judges (John and DeMarcus) combined with the likely lower number of votes (giving fanbases more power relative to the average viewer), these things matter less. Whether you like it or not, people have sheep-like tendencies and tend to believe stuff that is repeated over and over and over.  I also tend to agree with Courtney that DeMarcus’ dancing suffered once he got hurt.  Football players grow up needing to avoid injuries. The mental impact was probably not small.

The reasons for Bobby still being around is even more striking.

Bobby only needed ONE more vote per million than DeMarcus and 2.3k votes per million to stay over John.  This is margin of error territory here folks. And for those of you who think that the showmance is real and don’t understand why many of us roll our eyes and grit our teeth…it obviously works.  See below.

By any conventional wisdom since this show began, Alexis has been in danger of being eliminated since day one. She stayed over Tinashe likely due to demographics…she continues to stick likely due to showmancing.  Not so sure she’ll be so lucky on Monday night.  John only needed 2.3k votes per million votes cast to stay over her. A few seasons ago, he would have stayed easily.  But, again, the combination of showmancing and the lower number of likely voters means she’s still hanging on. DeMarcus only needed 4.6k more votes per million votes cast to stay over her and he couldn’t manage it. Showmancing works, ya’ll.

So, now that John and DeMarcus are gone, your low hanging fruit may finally be in danger.  Joe and Bobby, and to a lesser extent Alexis. She’s only low hanging fruit due to her lack of fanbase – she’s not a bad dancer. And, honestly, Bobby has shown some improvement. I just wish he would quit the whining.

If the scores remain relatively the same, it could be a very interesting night. Joe would be a good bit below Bobby and Alexis in terms of score, but not out of reach in terms of making up the vote. So who’s fanbase is stronger, Joe’s or Bobby’s?? Alexis is ahead of both of them but she’s in easy striking distance of Bobby (only about 6,100 votes). She’s a bit farther out of reach for Joe (about 25k votes per million). So, a couple things will be tested tomorrow night – Bobby’s real popularity relative to the Bachelor franchise and the strength of the showmance.

IMO, either Joe will finally fail or Alexis will be the next one sent home. Why is Bobby safe? Well, if Joe beats Bobby, he probably beats Alexis too AND it’s likely that Bobby beats Alexis because the numbers are so small (6,100 votes). What if they do another double? Well, that’s when we find out who is more popular – Joe or Bobby? Beats the hell out of me. I think Joe is probably more recognizable to the DWTS audience and for some crazy reason they like him. So I give him the edge over Bobby.

Finally, much has been made of Evanna being in jeopardy more than once. Of course it’s possible that anyone can be eliminated in this new world of lower viewers (which likely equals lower vote totals). But just like the audience is on to the producers games and how they operate, the producers are on to the FANS and sites like this one. Once upon a time, Jennifer Grey was the only winner in the history of the show to have been in jeopardy. But that was YEARS ago. The producers have learned how to change it up, just like the fans have learned how the producers do things. That makes everything uncertain.

But just like lower vote totals make it easier for fanbases to save their favorites, it also makes the judges slightly more relevant. I tend to think our final three are going to be Milo, Evanna and JP. And if those three aren’t the final three, well, this show becomes – finally – only a popularity contest and not a dance competition. Yes…it has always been heavily reliant on popularity or lack thereof. But it will reach new highs (lows?) of popularity only if Evanna, Milo or JP are eliminated tomorrow night.

November 11, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week Four – Dancing by the Numbers RETROSPECTIVE!

As I promised during the live blog, we’ll take a look at exactly what led to Tinashe’s elimination this past Monday. Beyond just a lack of votes, that is.

Of course, that’s what it all comes down to – she wasn’t getting the votes. It’s not necessarily that Joe was getting a ton of votes, it’s just as likely that she wasn’t getting votes.  Yes, there is a difference there. We have no way of knowing if Joe is next in line to leave or if he’s going to make it to the end – this elimination is in no way predictive, no matter what his sadly misguided fans like to claim. 🙂  And before you go crazy and try to tell me that the show is a popularity contest, not a dance contest – just stop. The show is whatever the viewer wants or needs it to be – it’s not up to you to make that determination for other people. The clash comes when the Bachelor Fan’s wants don’t coincide with other viewers wants. I WANT the show to have great dancing. I want the show to show someone who might not have been great to start grow into someone really good or great (see Bindi Irwin, for one).  I like a fun journey. And sorry kids, Joe doesn’t provide any of those things for me. Tinashe did. So quit your bitching about how some of us want Joe gone – deal with it. We certainly have to deal with JOE, so suck it up.

Anyway, Joe had to climb a serious hill in order to stay on the show over Tinashe.  We’ll really only look at Joe and Tinashe to start with, because he was the very bottom of the leader board, while she was the one who was eliminated. No, this is not the first time this has happened and it’s unlikely to be the last.  Audrina, Chynna, Brandy, Sabrina….the worst of all being Audrina who was way in the lead and got beat by Kurt Warner…who was eliminated two weeks later.  Kurt Warner had to get 48,400 more votes per million votes cast than Audrina and he did it. She went home.  Tinashe is in second place in the hardest elimination of all time. Joe had to get 47,415 more votes per million votes cast than Tinashe. And he clearly did.

Does that mean he’s killing it in the votes? Nope. This is hard to explain…let’s break it down and see if you can follow my logic, and the math. First, who got what scores? Read more..

October 21, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week THREE – Dancing by the Numbers!

Okay, so DBTN is a bit different going forward. Since the eliminations are now going to be last weeks votes and this coming weeks scores, that means that it’s much more “guessing” than it was before. We have to assume that most of the couples are going to score similarly to what they did this past week. And a lot of the time that’s not too far off base. But one thing I always wonder about with a set up like this is…if Len, at least, knows who’s going home, will he score them HIGHER or the SAME as he did last week. Or lower, to make him look prescient?? I guess we won’t know until the end of the season.

Anyway….

Based on last week’s scores, we have who you might expect at the top of the leaderboard: Milo, Juan Pablo and Tinashe. I personally think that DeMarcus should be up there with them – anyone else notice how many footballers have been consistently under scored for weeks in years past?? I sure do. In any case, I doubt he’s in any danger. If Milo, Juan Pablo and Tinashe score similarly to what they did last week, they will also likely be safe. Read more..

October 7, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week TWO – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, here we are again! I feel like I’m finally back in the swing of things. 🙂 Last night’s show wasn’t bad at all, except for the music that some of the couples had that totally didn’t match the style. That always takes something away from the dance for me, particularly when it’s an argentine tango. Other than that, I think everyone did quite well. Not only that, we have a nice spread on the scores which seems more realistic. I wasn’t terribly upset by anyone’s score, for a change, although there are one or two couples who are a bit too high relative to their competitors.

My current favorites? DeMarcus, Alexis, Evanna, Tinashe and Milo. I feel for Danelle and I like all the rest just fine, but that’s my top 5. 🙂 How did they all do? Read more..

October 2, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 27, Week ONE – Dancing by the Numbers Retrospective

Okay, so I’ve been in Italy. And before that I was tied up with World of Dance and a heavy work load. But now I’m ready for DWTS. 🙂

Of course, before I can talk about the numbers, I have to actually watch the show.  Here are a few of my thoughts as I watched Night ONE:

  1. Who are all these people in the opening number? Don’t get me wrong – it was a good opening number, but I didn’t recognize ANYONE mainly because there were TOO MANY people.
  2. Brandon and Tinashe make a very gorgeous couple.
  3. Why do they have both lapel mics and desk mics on the judges?? Is it really necessary that we hear them that well when so much of what they say is utter BS?
  4. Milo is cuuuuute. But dang, Disney?? We have to have Disney every season?  Good dancer though!!
  5. Hold the fucking phone: Mary Lou gets a *7* from Len and Milo gets a 6?? Are we going to start the bullshit so soon??  And don’t get me started on Evanna. Len has always been the designated field leveler, but I don’t recall it being this obvious this soon.  Gotta keep the Disney kid and the Potter kid down and make this thing a competition.  There was NOTHING in Evanna’s dance that said 5. That is just unbelievable.
  6. Robert Roldan….::::SWOOOOONNNN::::  I luf him.
  7. Some of these contestants opening sound more scripted than usual.
  8. Sharna is the first pro to pull in the troupe this season…and possibly the first pro to NEED the troupe. Love the Nashville background though.
  9. Cheryl Burke looks amazing and it’s good to have her back in the ballroom.
  10. Nikki is pretty funny….but so completely unknown.
  11. Alexis dances better than most models….but we won’t find out until week 2 or 3 if she’s more Brooke Burke or Joanna Krupa.
  12. Very good first outing for Brandon.
  13. Demarcus Ware is HOT. And he may well win this season.

Read more..

September 30, 2018 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)