DWTS Season 27, Week TWO – Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, here we are again! I feel like I’m finally back in the swing of things. 🙂 Last night’s show wasn’t bad at all, except for the music that some of the couples had that totally didn’t match the style. That always takes something away from the dance for me, particularly when it’s an argentine tango. Other than that, I think everyone did quite well. Not only that, we have a nice spread on the scores which seems more realistic. I wasn’t terribly upset by anyone’s score, for a change, although there are one or two couples who are a bit too high relative to their competitors.
My current favorites? DeMarcus, Alexis, Evanna, Tinashe and Milo. I feel for Danelle and I like all the rest just fine, but that’s my top 5. 🙂 How did they all do?
Juan Pablo, Tinashe and Milo tied for first place is okay. JP is doing nothing for me – I watch Cheryl, which works for her, for a while anyway. I hope they aren’t going to make a thing out of him. And I will be surprised if those three end up being the final three. It’s a bit early for that anyway.
Joe is on the bottom once again, but the spread is not huge at all. Last week, to avoid being in the bottom six, he had to get SERIOUS votes – particularly to beat Alexis and Bobby. More than 20k votes per million votes cast. But since the producers revealed their hand – they did say “bottom six” correct? – it will be interesting to see what actually happens tonight. Did viewers pick up the pace to keep those in the bottom six safe? Did Joe’s fans relax?? I’m going to say no; your average Bachelor Nation fan could never be called relaxed. 🙂 Anyway, let’s look at what Joe needs to be safe…and safe from a double, in the event that that intel is correct.
So, Joe only needs 3,700 more votes per million votes cast to be safe over Danelle – if it were anyone other than Danelle, I would say she would be gone. In this case, it’s a tougher call – Danelle has a great story and is a very nice woman who is over coming some tough odds. But Joe has Bachelor Nation and they are…rabid. I think Joe beats Bobby and possibly Nancy and Mary Lou. But it’s a tough call because the audience knows those rather iconic dancers were in serious danger last week. Did they respond accordingly?? No idea.
Dang, there are a lot of people still, which makes the numbers take a long time. That’s the only good thing about bunching them – less calculations. 🙂 Anyway, let’s remove some folks from the equations. I think, based on the number of votes the people below them would need to be beat their combined total scores, that Tinashe, Juan Pablo, Milo, DeMarcus and Evanna are all safe. Alexis I’m not as sure about because she is so completely unknown and she was in the bottom five last week, in spite of her higher score.
Danelle? I think Joe gets the votes to beat her which puts her on the bottom. She needs 7,400 more votes per million votes cast to beat Bobby. See below.
Does she beat Bobby? That’s a very tough call; she has a story and people are eventually going to get tired of him. Are they yet? I don’t think so. She needs more than 11k votes to beat Nancy, nearly 15k to beat Mary Lou and well more than 18k to beat John. I don’t believe she beats John. Mary Lou is another tough call; head to head, I prefer Danelle. But Mary Lou is an iconic gymnast…then again, she is not very popular right now, due to her stance on the USA Gymnastics sex scandal. What does Bobby need?
Okay, so I don’t think Danelle beats Bobby yet. Which means Danelle is still in the bottom. I don’t think she beats either Nancy or Mary Lou either. I’m afraid that she’s going to be eliminated.
Now, if it’s a double elimination like we suspect? I think Joe beats Danelle, Bobby and Nancy (and MAYBE Mary Lou) and will be safe once again. What about Nancy?
I think Nancy beats Mary Lou since she needs less than 4k votes per million votes cast in order to stay. If Danelle leaves and Nancy beats Mary Lou, then obviously Nancy is safe. Soooo…..that leaves us with Bobby, Mary Lou and John. If you can still follow me. 🙂 I think Bobby is beating both Nancy and Mary Lou and will also be safe. I think John, since he wasn’t in the bottom 5, is going to be safe again – he’s even more likable this week than he was last.
::::sigh:::: I think Danelle and Mary Lou are going to be leaving this week. If there is a shocking elimination, it will be Alexis – and that will make me very sad, because she has a ton of potential and is reminding me of Brooke Burke without the baggage. Any of the bottom five or six on the leaderboard could go, if the number of people voting is low enough. None of them will be “shocking”. But I think it will be Danelle and Mary Lou – and no, I don’t think any extra points will actually save any one from elimination with the possible exception of Alexis.
We’ll see – what do you think?
Thanks Heidi! This numbers post is going to come in handy this season especially with all the talent that we have. I didn’t know who to vote for last week, but after seeing Alexis in jeopardy on Tuesday, I voted to save her and voted for her last night. I like you, want her to stay and see her journey.
As for who’s leaving tonight – something tells me Joe may be one of them, but then seeing that he barely needs anything to beat Danelle, he’s probably going to stay. Ugh. Something about him irks me.
Thanks Heidi for posting these again because with the talent this season, it’s going to be hard to predict who will be leaving each week. (Btw, if my other post somehow posts itself, feel free to delete this one)
I agree with you on top 5 – those are my top 5 too. I hope they will end up being the top 5, how cool would that be?
As far as Alexis goes, I did not vote last Monday but upon seeing her in jeopardy on Tuesday, I voted to save her and voted for her last night. Want to see her last as long as she can because I enjoy seeing her dance and am excited to see her journey.
Joe rubs me the wrong way and somehow I hope you are wrong and that he goes tonight, but with the small amount he needs to pass Danelle, I don’t think that’ll happen ;(
I think Danelle will go. If she had a lesser amount of votes needed to pass Mary Lou then I could have seen her survive but I think 14.7k is too much to overcome for someone who was in the bottom five last week and doesn’t have a built in fanbase, nor a pro with voting juice like Val.
[…] Is it really that much of a stretch to assume she was probably a goner no matter what??? Both Heidi & I called it, and this was before we even heard about the voting issues. “But Court, […]