DWTS Season 28, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

I’m really not sure this is going to be a regular post this season, if the voting and the eliminations are going like they’re reportedly going to go tomorrow night. We’ll have to wait and see – I might end up with the numbers in the live blog and then having a “what happened” with the numbers sometime during the week after the show (unless it’s really obvious what happened). Hard to say. We’ll play it by ear. 🙂

So I’m hearing all kinds of complaints about the very low scoring paddles being used and the fact that the voting might all be live this season. To the former, I say – it’s about damn time!! Lamar and S__S_____ were NOT great and they didn’t deserve better than what they got. Of course, the judges still manage to screw up the middle of the pack (Kel and Ally get 16 but Lauren got a 19 and Mary got a 17??? Uhhhh…). As for the voting, and whatever the “new” elimination stuff is that is coming, it seems very clear to me what they’re trying to do – prevent another Bobby Bones. And I’m okay with that.  It’s not that they hate the west coast viewers – please. It’s not even that they “hate” Bobby Bones. It’s about the credibility of a dancing show which even FEWER people will watch if the actual dancers get voted off regularly. Does anyone actually WANT to watch Bobby dance besides his cult followers? Not me. And where do Bobby’s cult followers go when he’s off the show?? Do THEY still watch? I doubt it. Which would you prefer – all the good dancers getting eliminated because they don’t have a power fanbase or the ability to vote? Yes, yes, yes…the show has always been a popularity contest, but back in the day big fanbases were offset by the general viewing audience which tended to be MUCH larger. Combine the general viewer with the judges and most of the time, one of the better dancers won. Let’s face it, Bobby Bones beating ANY of the other top five from last season is pretty ridiculous.  If it got to be a regular thing, I would have no desire to watch the show, let alone blog about it.

Anyway, I’ll put this out here for you to consider – not that it matters, because they’re going to take the judges scores from tomorrow night and add them to the numbers below, which will change everything – or will it? Hard to say.  But here is where they stand right now.

As you can see, Hannah, James and Lauren are pretty safely ensconced at the top (for now) while SS and Lamar are way below the rest of the pack at the bottom. Ordinarily, that would mean that one of those two would go – but I’m not so sure about that.  Not these days.

As you can see from the above table, Lamar only needs 5k votes per million votes cast to stay over S___. Can he get those votes? I tend to doubt it – not because S___ is all that great or anything, but Lamar has issues of his own.

Now the next tier, as shown above, is a bit tougher. S___ would have to get more than 15k votes per million votes cast to be safe over Kate and Ray, and Lamar needs more than 20.3k votes per million votes cast to get past them. Can either guy get past Kate or Ray?? Sad to say, I think S___ can thanks to a crackpot fanbase. Anyway…

When you look at the above three tables, it seems clear that – barring dancing disaster tomorrow night – that James, Hannah, Lauren and possibly Sailor are going to be safe. Those are some pretty big vote totals that anyone in the bottom four would have to get in order for one of them to not be safe and go home. So, I think those four are safe tomorrow, again, barring disaster.  I might go out on a limb and say that Karamo and Mary could be safe as well.  Anyone of the bottom four could go home – it’s a tough call…but I’m leaning Lamar. For him to be safe, he would need one of the following things to happen:

  • He would need to get roughly 5,100 more votes per million votes cast than S___, OR;
  • He would need 20,400 more votes per million votes cast then either Kate or Ray, OR;
  • He would need 25,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Kel or Ally

And so on.  I don’t see that happening unless he has an amazing dance tomorrow night. Of course, if he has to dance off versus S___ I think the judges (in their crass, viewer desperation ways) will pick S___.  If he has to dance off against anyone else, he might have a chance.  For S___ to be safe, he needs one of the following things to happen:

  • He needs for Lamar to NOT get the 5,100 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • He needs to get 15,300 more votes per million votes cast than either Kate or Ray, OR;
  • He needs to get 20,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Mary or Karamo, OR;
  • He needs to get 30,500 more votes per million votes cast than Sailor

And so on.  While I can see Lamar failing to get those votes, the rest of it I’m just unsure about. All I’ll say is, if you want him gone you HAVE TO VOTE FOR SOMEONE ELSE. Like Lamar. Or at least your favorite to keep them safe.

So to sum up, I thinking any one of the bottom four could go but I’m leaning Lamar at this moment.  All bets are off once they start dancing tomorrow night. I’ll be calculating all through my live blog, most likely. 🙂