DWTS Season 27, Week Four – Dancing by the Numbers RETROSPECTIVE!
As I promised during the live blog, we’ll take a look at exactly what led to Tinashe’s elimination this past Monday. Beyond just a lack of votes, that is.
Of course, that’s what it all comes down to – she wasn’t getting the votes. It’s not necessarily that Joe was getting a ton of votes, it’s just as likely that she wasn’t getting votes. Yes, there is a difference there. We have no way of knowing if Joe is next in line to leave or if he’s going to make it to the end – this elimination is in no way predictive, no matter what his sadly misguided fans like to claim. 🙂 And before you go crazy and try to tell me that the show is a popularity contest, not a dance contest – just stop. The show is whatever the viewer wants or needs it to be – it’s not up to you to make that determination for other people. The clash comes when the Bachelor Fan’s wants don’t coincide with other viewers wants. I WANT the show to have great dancing. I want the show to show someone who might not have been great to start grow into someone really good or great (see Bindi Irwin, for one). I like a fun journey. And sorry kids, Joe doesn’t provide any of those things for me. Tinashe did. So quit your bitching about how some of us want Joe gone – deal with it. We certainly have to deal with JOE, so suck it up.
Anyway, Joe had to climb a serious hill in order to stay on the show over Tinashe. We’ll really only look at Joe and Tinashe to start with, because he was the very bottom of the leader board, while she was the one who was eliminated. No, this is not the first time this has happened and it’s unlikely to be the last. Audrina, Chynna, Brandy, Sabrina….the worst of all being Audrina who was way in the lead and got beat by Kurt Warner…who was eliminated two weeks later. Kurt Warner had to get 48,400 more votes per million votes cast than Audrina and he did it. She went home. Tinashe is in second place in the hardest elimination of all time. Joe had to get 47,415 more votes per million votes cast than Tinashe. And he clearly did.
Does that mean he’s killing it in the votes? Nope. This is hard to explain…let’s break it down and see if you can follow my logic, and the math. First, who got what scores?
Tinashe got the same score she got the week before, when people were casting their votes – a nice 26. Why is what she got last week important? Well, because that’s what people were voting on (which is why this season is rather screwed up). She had a good score – so there could be an element of over confidence there. “She’s safe, I don’t need to vote for her.” Conversely, Joe had an 18 last week, which is pretty bad – making his fans vote harder, most likely. Combine the two and it’s a recipe for disaster…sometimes. Not always. Depends on the fanbase. If the fanbase is small to start with, combined with probably not being comprised of the average DWTS viewer who knows how the show works, and you’re going to be in trouble. Joe has fans that ARE in the demo and are likely voting to make up for his scores. He doesn’t have to be getting tons of votes for this to work.
Here’s the break down of the votes needed by Joe against each competitor:
Okay, why is it possible that Joe isn’t getting a ton of votes like his fans claim since he was safe over Tinashe? Well, she’s just ONE person that he beat. We have NO idea how he currently stacks up against the others. To complicate matters, she was not in the bottom six in week 1. Alexis and Mary Lou both were. Alexis was tied with her in week 1, while Mary Lou was four points down. Since Alexis was a point down from Tinashe this week but was still safe, either she’s next to go, or she’s growing on people. Hard to say. But I digress.
Purely hypothetically – Let’s pretend that there are only two million votes cast to make the math easier. Here’s how Joe can be getting the lowest number of votes of everyone except Tinashe:
Now, if these votes are anything close to reality, Joe would be the next one to leave because he’s got lower votes than everyone else. That won’t work: he needs to BEAT a bunch of people by a lot of votes in order to stay. And in this scenario, he’s not that far off from a couple people, but he’s not beating them by any stretch. I’m not saying this is anything close to reality, and Table 3 is just a guess – not necessarily my preference. But Table 3 pretty clearly illustrates what I mean when I say that it’s not necessarily true that Joe is getting a ton of votes, that it’s possible that Tinashe just wasn’t getting hardly any votes. Thus, she was eliminated. Clear as mud?
I will say that if Joe survives this coming Monday, it’s most likely that Alexis is his next victim. Maybe Bobby. Those two are the least well known of the people remaining. As the weather has turned colder and it’s definitely not as fun to be outside any more, you might see an uptick in same day viewing and voting. That could spell trouble for Joe himself. We’ll have to wait and see.
I would go on and try to be more analytical on who might go home Monday, but that is next to impossible to do when the scores haven’t been handed out just yet. We’re at the mid point of the season and this is my preferred boot order, starting with who I want to leave the most:
Joe
Bobby
Mary Lou
JP
John
Alexis
Evanna – top 3
DeMarcus – possible winner
Milo – possible winner
I’m not silly enough to believe I’ll actually get my way. Sometimes I do, sometimes I don’t. What do I think will actually happen? Scores are just as important as votes, despite what many fans like to claim. It’s always been that way. If DeMarcus doesn’t start getting higher scores, Milo will probably win. And I would be okay with that. 🙂 Next to go? I want it to be Joe, but it could easily be Alexis, Bobby or Mary Lou.
What do you think?
I’m hoping the next two to go are Bobby and Joe. I don’t really care who goes first and who goes second, as long they are both gone next. I know I won’t be that lucky.
My guess is the next to go, in some order, will probably be John, Mary Lou, and possibly Alexis and Evanna. Joe might finally go in there somewhere, but I think he’ll out last at least 2 or 3 of those 4 I mentioned. I do think Bobby will make the finals, along with DeMarcus, and Milo. If it’s a 4 person finale then I think the last spot could go to Juan Pablo. I’m not overly optimistic about the ladies chances.
My ideal final 4 is Alexis, Milo, John, and either Evanna, Juan Pablo (more because of Cheryl) or DeMarcus.
Wow, great insight Heidi!
I am hoping Joe and Bobby are the next two to leave. I am sensing a double elimination will be coming up soon too. I am hoping that Alexis fans voted harder for her after seeing what happened on Monday.
@Kara – I actually think Evanna will be the last female standing – I think she will either make it to final 4 or 3. I mean between ML and Alexis, I think they will be leaving in the next few weeks, although I would love to see Alexis in the top 4, I don’t know if her fans can carry her that far.
I’m under the impression Joe is indeed getting a lot of votes and will probably be safe again this week but I don’t see him making the finals; I doubt his dancing is going to improve and as more people leave the other remaining teams will probably get more and more votes and probably overpower him around Week 7 or 8.
I think final 3 is going to be Milo, Bobby, and DeMarcus. DeMarcus and Bobby seem to have fanbases that fit with the demo pretty nicely, and once Joe leaves Bobby will probably pick up some “non-dancer” votes (also Bobby has Sharna who a lot of viewers seem to really want to see win) and Milo seems to be the person who is doing the best at connecting with people who didn’t know who he was before.
I’d guess fourth place will be Evanna or Alexis. I think they may have picked up some of Tinashe’s votes (which clearly wasn’t a lot, but hey it’s something) and whenever one of the two leaves I think there will be a big push from viewers (and possibly the show) for the other to make the finals.
I could see JP being cut anytime between now and the finals but for some reason I don’t see him making it all the way. I feel like the show tried to shield him from being a shock elim with the gushing and it ended up being Tinashe instead. But I guess we’ll see if he can keep up the momentum.
Heidi, On Mondays, TPTB already know who has the lowest percentage of fans’ votes from the prior week. That gives TPTB a lot of manipulation room. There could be a double elimination if the “right 2 couples” have the lowest judges scores. The judges can be told to overscore someone to save them and then underscore the ones who have a ton of votes (i.e. DeMarcus).
Yeah, I realize that Linz. I go back and forth on the idea that the Judges actually know scoop. I think *Len* does, but I’m not so sure about the other two.
Julia, you do realize that your “impression” is just a guess like anyone else’s right. Not sure what it’s based on, honestly. There have been no visible clues that I can see.
A big part of my feeling about Joe is based on past history with Bachelor contestants on DWTS (and Joe seems to be more well-liked by that fanbase than most of the other alumni who’ve gone on to do DWTS, especially the former leads). I would guess it’s because the demo of that show and DWTS has a lot of overlap. The other factor I really can’t put into words but it’s based on conversations I’ve had with people who watch the show; I know a lot want him gone but quite a few who think he’s being treated unfairly and want to help him go “take THAT!” to the judges. And the most frustrating thing about it is I feel like there’s nothing – short of being utterly disrespectful – he could do in terms of dancing or enthusiasm that would make people to stop voting for him (and I get the same feeling about Bobby too).
And I know all of it is only a guess I just don’t like wording all my sentences the same way so I tried to find other words and phrases. XD
The problem inherent in comparing one season to the next that I feel people always forget about is that the people this season are competing against DIFFERENT people from those in other seasons. There have been seasons with a lot of weak contestants, and seasons with a lot of strong contestants. I feel like this one is somewhere in the middle. They have a Disney kid, a Potter kid, a popular footballer, a popular former Olympian, and a TV Icon.
Not counting Trista because Season 1 was a different animal, nor Melissa because that was an extreme situation (both times), the Bachelor contestants have never done better than 5th place and that was only Chris Soules. The people eliminated before him were Willow, Patti LaBelle, Suzanne Somers, Michael Sam, Charlotte McKinney, and Redfoo – not exactly a stellar cast of characters. Only Willow came close to being a decent dancer.
Nick and Sean both got to 6th place. The people eliminated before Sean were Dorothy, Wynonna, Lisa V., D.L., Victor Ortiz and Andy Dick. Again…not stellar. As for Nick, he beat out Chris Kattan, Charo, Mr. T, Erika Jayne, Heather Morris, and Nancy Kerrigan – only Nancy and Heather were surprises and not really. Heather was the biggest ringer of all time and Nancy was too…soft, quiet??
Finally, Jake only got to 7th place, beating Shannen Dougherty, Buzz Aldren, Aiden and Kate Gsselin – WEAK.
My point is, no male Bachelor has done better than fifth and most of them stuck around for a long time because there was a very weak cast of characters eliminated before them. This season? So far he’s beaten Nikki, Nancy, Tinashe and Danelle – look at those four names just from a purely name recognition stand point and the only surprising one is Nancy and we’ve already discussed that she was likely too laid back. Tinashe was a very good dancer, but when you have multiple good dancers who have similar sized fanbases (Alexis) one or both of them is going to go early. Tinashe is right in the group with those mentioned in the post – not totally surprising.
I guess my main point is that it doesn’t seem to be about the Bachelor, but about who he or she is competing against. As it is most seasons. If he beats 3 more people, he’ll be just like the other bachelors. But will he? Hard to say.
@Heidi: I think we’ll find out more about how much Bachelor Nation and DWTS cross over when there’s a contestant that Bachelor Nation is truly invested in. There’s an argument to be made that there haven’t been that many leads that the public truly gets behind and by the end of their season, they’ve sort of worn out their welcome. Normally, you only get huge backing from the fan base when something traumatic happens to you, e.g. Becca K. and the original one, Melissa.
I get the feeling that because Joe’s fans sort of grew from a huge push from social media that he’ll be a good test subject to find out how many will vote for Joe because they like him and they’re shipping him and Kendall.
When it was revealed on the Paradise reunion show that Joe was doing DWTS, a comment was even made that DWTS would give Joe and Kendall a chance to develop a relationship because they’d be living in the same city. There’s a chance that some of the votes might just be from people who want them to succeed and are determined to keep him on the show just so that he can stay in L.A. with Kendall, since she’s not moving due to her job.
Have we ever had the possibility that votes for a contestant are purely because of shippers wanting the contestant to stay on the show?
Interesting math. These by the numbers never make much sense to me but I understand how there is logic to what your saying as far as how
Joe could still be next to go. Although the fact he has lasted as long as he has doesn’t really make me believe he is the next to go but I understand how he could be. As far as my elimination order it would look like this (I have actually been enjoying JP so keep in mind I will have him higher than you do and I also don’t think Demarcus is as likely to win as you do but I don’t underestimate him by any means)
9) Joe
8) Mary Lou
7) John
6) Bobby
5) Evanna
4) Alexis
3) DeMarcus
2) JP
1) Milo
Of course, Justin. Not only was Melissa royally screwed, she was also a ringer, as a former Dallas Cowboys cheerleader. Meaning she could dance very well coming on to the show. As a result, she got high scores. None of the bachelor men really accomplish that – and that is HALF the battle. Without the scores, Joe is just like the other men – maybe worse. Don’t forget that each of the men, while competing, were still with their Bachelor selection. It didn’t help them that much. If he continues to get 15s, the Bach fans will have to vote harder than they ever have before. We’ll see if that’s enough.
I just don’t want to hear any more bullshit about how he’s getting a “ton of votes”. That’s not necessarily true.
I’m hoping Joe goes tonight. He can’t dance, he’s boring and I don’t think he really wants to be there. If it’s not him, I would love to see Juan Pablo go, which I know won’t happen, but I can hope. He holds no interest for me and Cheryl usually goes the sexy route with guys like him, which I’m tired of seeing all of the time.
My final 3 as of now would be DeMarcus, Evanna and Milo with Milo winning. All three are enjoying do this show. They improve every week and have great attitudes.
That’s what I want in a winner along with the ability to dance. Joe doesn’t have any of that and except his most memorable dance, Bobby is irritating. So Bobby leaving tonight would be ok too, but I’ll keep him over Joe.
Thank you for doing the numbers, Heidi! I always appreciate your breakdown. I do love watching a contestant grow over seeing one start out a ringer. However, Joe isn’t growing at this point. I don’t feel like he really wants to be there and I don’t feel like Jenna is into it at this point.
So, who do I want to stick around? I love Evanna. She didn’t grab me in week 1, but she just keeps pulling me in. I love her personality. She just sparkles. Milo is another one that just makes me smile when I watch him. On a side note…hats of to Emma with her trio. That was just great! She is amazing!
I was sad to see Brandon and Tinashe go. She was so good. Brandon is such a talent. I love his choreography, personality, and talent. He is a keeper. After watching him on juniors, he is my top male pro. Go Brandon! 🙂
No surprise on Tinashe for me. I said from the beginning I worried about her having a small fan base. The twitter fandom seemed to disagree but her and Alexis I was concerned for from the announcement.
I have to agree with people that Joe is an anomaly when it comes to bachelor contestants but I don’t think it has anything to do with his relationship. It has more to do with the fact he wasn’t a lead. he wasn’t the bad guy who dumped someone or the guy like nick who came back 4 times. He is well liked by the fandom and really just an average Joe which i think maybe people are connecting with. I do hope Joe goes soon. Week one I saw some potential but he’s gotten progressively worse and doesn’t seem to be trying. His dances are comical at this point.
I agree with you on who should be the final 3. I would prefer Evanna in 2nd because Demarcus hasn’t wowed me as much as he did week one. Milo is my winner this season no matter what happens. If he doesn’t win I’ll be okay but in my heart he’s won the season for me.
Anyone aside from the 3 mentioned above really I just have no strong feelings either way with the exception of John. He’s really impressed me. he’s likeable and I connect with his dances. You can see his improvement and desire to try every week. He’s super surprising. I’d say Bobby is probably the only other one I feel that way about. I know i’m in the minority but I feel like he’s reigned it in and is doing better. So after that Joe, Mary Lou, JP and Alexis are just lost on me. I guess we will see how things shake out. I love your numbers posts thanks for doing them