DWTS Season 27, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers and What it Takes to Win
As you know, it’s pretty hard (if not impossible) to do a real “Dancing by the Numbers” when the show is set up like it is this season. That is, the winner will be determined this Monday by *last week’s* votes, this weeks live vote and this weeks dance scores. It’s kind of crap – but at least they added a live vote to last weeks votes so if you voted for JP you have a shot to vote for someone else. Here are some important points from the press release before someone says, “but Heidi, the winner is determined only by the live vote” – not so, kids. Don’t listen to (other) people on the internet. 😉 Note the emphasis (added by me) in the second paragraph.
For the Repeat Dance, each couple will perform a tango, cha cha or Charleston. The Repeat Dance scores will be combined with the Freestyle Dance scores for a judges’ final tally. The judges’ tally will be combined with viewers’ votes from the previous week. Additionally, viewers can participate in an online-only live vote for the remaining couples, where, at the end of the night, one of them will be crowned the “Dancing with the Stars” champion.
Viewers will be allowed to participate in an online-only live vote at http://DWTSLiveVote.com. Voting will open at the beginning of the live broadcast and close approximately five minutes after the last dance. The live vote will only be available during the live broadcast in the Eastern and Central time zones. However, any individuals with access to http://DWTSLiveVote.com will be permitted to vote while the vote is open, regardless of their time zone (provided they are voting from within the U.S. and Puerto Rico).
First, let’s take a quick look at what it took for JP and Joe to be eliminated last week. As per usual, I see people getting hysterical, thinking this means Bobby is going to win. Or Alexis. Here was the leaderboard:
Dancer | Score | Team Dance | Total | % of total points awarded |
Milo | 27.00 | 27.00 | 54.00 | 16.82% |
Evanna | 30.00 | 28.00 | 58.00 | 18.07% |
Bobby | 21.00 | 24.00 | 45.00 | 14.02% |
Juan Pablo | 30.00 | 30.00 | 60.00 | 18.69% |
Alexis | 28.00 | 30.00 | 58.00 | 18.07% |
Joe | 22.00 | 24.00 | 46.00 | 14.33% |
Total Points Awarded | 321.00 | 1.00 |
What did Bobby have to do to be safe over Joe and JP?? Well, not a lot when it comes to Joe. A huge number when it comes to JP.
% Different | Votes Needed Per Million | |
Bobby vs. Joe | 0.31% | 3,115 |
Bobby vs. Milo | 2.80% | 28,037 |
Bobby vs. Alexis/Evanna | 4.05% | 40,498 |
Bobby vs. JP | 4.67% | 46,729 |
But remember, this doesn’t mean everyone and their brother is voting for Bobby – it could easily mean that no one was voting for JP. Courtney and I have been saying since day one that he has had little to no impact. Good dancer? Of course. But very Juan Note (tm Courtney). 🙂 For Bobby to be safe in a double, he had to beat two people. He obviously beat Joe (3,116 votes per million) and JP (46,730 votes per million). In order for JP to go home, though, it wasn’t just Bobby that beat him, it was EVERYONE.
Milo vs. JP | 1.87% | 18,692 |
Alexis/Evanna vs. JP | 0.62% | 6,231 |
That number on the far right is the number of votes per million votes cast that Milo or Alexis AND Evanna got to stay over JP. So, everyone got more votes than he did. Hell, maybe even Joe did – but we’ll never know, because Joe was also in the bottom two.
Anyway, moving on –
So, to determine what it will take to WIN this season, I’m going to make a wild guess at the scores each couple will receive – in many cases I’m going to assume that they score similarly to how they scored last week. This is what I typically do during the live show and it has worked out reasonably well. I’ll let you know where I make any changes.
Now, without JP and Joe in the mix, the over all vote total decreases. I’m going assume that everyone except Bobby gets a 30 in their freestyle. I’m also going to assume that Bobby does a bit better in his re-do dance, scoring a 24. Alexis stays the same. I’m also going to assume that last week was a fluke for Milo and that he, along with Evanna, gets perfect scores. I’m thinking that, barring disaster, the judges are going to like either Milo or Evanna for the win and will score accordingly, putting Alexis just slightly behind them. Here’s what the leader board would look like in this scenario.
Dancer | Re-do Dance | Freestyle | Total | % of total points awarded |
Milo | 30.00 | 30.00 | 60.00 | 26.09% |
Evanna | 30.00 | 30.00 | 60.00 | 26.09% |
Bobby | 24.00 | 28.00 | 52.00 | 22.61% |
Alexis | 28.00 | 30.00 | 58.00 | 25.22% |
Total Points Awarded | 230 |
It’s always frighteningly close in the finale, but most of the time, the right person – or the right top two – emerges in the end. What we will find out is if the lower number of voters – and the correspondingly lower number of voters – will throw a wrench into what is typically somewhat predictable end result for the show. I think it unlikely, but you never know. Do the shippers or Bobby’s fans have strong enough fanbases to over rule the will of the average viewer? I tend to think they’ll be offset by JP, Evanna, and Milo fans pissed off that Bobby is still there. If I’m even close to right, what will it take for Bobby to win the whole thing?
Bobby vs. Alexis | 2.61% | 26,087 |
Bobby vs. Evanna/Milo | 3.48% | 34,783 |
So, for Bobby to win, he would need to get roughly 26,100 more votes per million votes cast than Alexis and 34,800 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH Evanna and Milo. Those are some decent numbers. He may be able to pass Alexis – and I wager he probably will, since in any normal season she would have been eliminated a couple weeks ago (showmance week, possibly). But I don’t see him getting past either the Potter kid or the Disney kid – both have fanbases of their own and are very good to great dancers. People who tend to tune in only for the finale will likely vote for the best dancer, if they vote at all. I do think with the addition of a live vote, the judges will play it safe and NOT hand out any pity scores – that is, they won’t know for sure how he’s doing so he’s unlikely to get two perfect scores. I’ll be surprised if they give him one perfect score.
What will it take for Alexis to win? Well, if I’m close on the scores it only takes getting about 9k more votes per million votes cast than BOTH Evanna and Milo AND she needs for Bobby to not cover the spread. Meaning she needs for him to NOT get the 26k more votes per million votes cast than her. She could maybe get past one of Evanna or Milo, but I don’t see her beating both of them.
What will it take for Evanna or Milo to win? Well first off, they need for Bobby to not cover the spread of about 34,800 more votes per million votes cast. Second, they need for Alexis to not cover her spread of about 9k more votes per million votes cast. If neither spread gets covered – meaning that Bobby and Alexis get 3rd and 4th places, then whichever of Evanna or Milo gets more votes, wins. It can be as little as by ONE vote. Yes. ONE VOTE. So, if you have a favorite between those two, you best vote your fingers to the bone during the show. Every vote is going to count. As they always do. 🙂
What do I think WILL happen on Monday night?? Well, I think Milo is going to take it home. I think they will finish like this:
4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Evanna
Winner – Milo
Now ask me what I WANT to happen on Monday night. 🙂 Here’s what I want to happen – and honestly, it’s a pretty tough call. Even money says to me that either Evanna or Milo wins, but since I so rarely get what I want when it comes to this show, I hedge my bets. Here’s what I WANT to happen:
4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Milo
Winner – Evanna
I think it’s really too close to call between Evanna and Milo and everything hinges on not only the dancing and the scoring on Monday night – but I suspect a lot will depend on the spin and how each couple is portrayed. I’ve never wanted a pro to talk about how they’ve never won before – time for Keo to speak up, man. 🙂 If Bobby shows his true colors – the colors I’ve been hearing about on his radio show – then that helps Alexis. I don’t think Milo can do anything wrong, per se, it’s more about how his competitors look on their own. Keo’s real emotion the other week when Erin was talking about how she teases him and comments on how he’s never made it this far – that felt like a show-winning moment to me. But was it?? It was much more genuine and heartfelt than anything coming from Alexis and Alan (or Bobby and Sharna) – but was it enough?? I sure as hell hope so. That was a moment where I sat up and said, “Damn, they could win this thing.”
What do you think??
Oh my goodness when Keo pretty much cried in front of all of America to see, it was just so spontaneous and unpredictable, I don’t think he even realized it was coming LOL It was so genuine and heartfelt and his partnership with Evanna is the same way-nothing manufactured. I’m so hoping they win but I just don’t know if Milo and Witney will beat em out. And I can’t hate Milo for it if he does-he’s a good kid and a great dancer:)
I just hope Bobby doesn’t overtake one of the two-I keep hearing he’s promoting himself like crazy on his show, etc etc-keeping my fingers crossed he stays below 2nd place🙏
Keo seems to have gained a lot of respect from fans this season, and I think fewer people will be saying he doesn’t deserve a pro spot anymore. What I love about Evanna and Milo is that they didn’t need a showmance to fall back on, and they haven’t been whining off the show about other contestants and the judges and saying average should win. Evanna especially has taken her fair share of knocks from the judges, but her and Keo just take the criticism to heart and work on what the judges are saying. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bobby comes in second, but I really believe having one night for the finale isn’t going to do him any favors. I actually want Alexis to win less than him, mainly because of the whole showmance thrown at us. Ever since, I’ve found her to just be very fake.
Evanna is my ideal choice to win, but I’m fine with Milo.
It’s gonna be a very tough call – Evanna was smart to post the voting procedures for the live vote on her socials yesterday – that will help a lot. I really hope that Evanna wins – but I won’t be mad if Milo does. We’ll see if he has enough to take it home.
I’ve been following this site for years. I have to thank the ppl who created it and for all their time they invest every season to keep fans informed. I have learned soo much about this show reading this site. With that said, I am part of Bachelor nation. I love Joe person wise, but yea he needed to go a long time ago. From all the bachelor sites I’m on, seems everyone’s votes are mostly shifting to Evanna, as well as mine. Although I wouldn’t be too upset if Milo won. They are both such likeable ppl. Evanna such a humble human being and you can tell as bad as she wants it, she wants it more for Keo. I don’t care for Bobby and Alexis. Fakeness on both personalities. Please, please,please let it be Evanna.
I’ve been watching dwts since season 2, I always looked at the dancing. I don’t understand a lot of people on this site, just because there is a showmance. it shouldn’t take away anything from Alexis she is a good dancer. I hope Milo wins
@txjen – I hope Bach nation knows they can vote live during the show for her.. that will help a lot. I think Evanna winning for me would be a great ending to a strange season.
I really hate one night finales and live votes, but I am glad that the voting will be throughout the episode, and not in the last 5 minutes like last week. I do think the judges scoring will be very telling.
@Kara – I agree., I think I’m going to make a few more accounts just so I can get in more for Evanna since we have a longer period to vote. Can’t wait to see her freestyle – the DWTS insta showed a preview of it.. I don’t think it’ll be comtemporary thank goodness
I’ve always said that I no longer will vote. The powers-that-bees has already made-up their minds. juan pablo was eliminated unfairly. I’m happy that we no longer voted. It’s fixed all the way. They are trying to attract or keep the younger generation. Not fair at all.
I was with Pablo all the way, but not completely shocked he left especially after I read here that Monday’s scores didn’t factor into the elimination. The partnership with Cheryl lacked any kind of spark, although I think he made strides Monday, just too little too late.
I am rooting for Milo, I think he deserves it most of the remaining celebs, but also think Evanna worthy. The other two are a no from me. I thought Milo had it in the bag until last week when momentum seemed to shift a little. Will be interesting to see how the judges play tomorrow.
I will be extremely happy with either Evanna or Milo winning, they’ve both been my faves this whole season and I will be happy no matter who wins of those two. I will say, however, that I’d really like to see Milo win, simply because a pure Disney-star has never won (yes Jordan won last year, and I count that in my books, but he’s a former Disney-star, not current, and was more of a Corbin Bleu type). But, if Evanna wins I’ll be so freaking happy for her and Keo (especially since he’s never won before and would be the first pro of color to do so!). Either way, it’s gonna be a good show 🙂
Hi!
I haven’t commented at all this season because….. it sucks. Haven’t even been watching in full and just been catching up via youtube and this site.
That being said, just want to say thank you for to all the moderators of this site for doing an amazing job.
The season might have been really crappy but you guys have been superb. Keep up the good work 🙂
I have found Bobby to be very entertaining. I always look forward to his routines because I know that he will, if nothing else, bring his infectious joy. I think Milo will win because it would work perfectly for the tour with Witney as the headliner.
You read something wrong, Rose1. Monday’s scores DID count. He just didn’t get enough votes the previous week.
I’m still confused on how this whole live finale works when my station has football on DWTS doesn’t air until midnight. ?????????
Today’s the day. Work is going pretty crappy so a good outcome tonight will be the icing on the cake. Go evanna! Made some more accounts for the live vote. Glad tonight’s it. Wouldn’t be able to survive another show tomorrow.
Hope there’s a live blog tonight since it’s MNF so have to watch Chiefs vs Rams. I need to know when to vote!!!! I’m hoping to see Evanna Milo final two and honestly love them both so either is a win for me. 🙂
By the looks of it a lot of people want either Milo or Evanna to win and I totally agree! These 2 have been my favs from the very beginning. I’d like to see Mill win it all because his routines have been more memorable to me but Evanna winning wouldn’t upset me either. Good luck tonight guys!
I hope Evanna or Milo win! I kinda prefer Evanna to win but I would be happy if Milo won so it’s fine. I hope Milo will get back to getting perfect scores. He’s been getting more 9s recently when he should be getting more 10s!
I’ll be glad when this season is over. This has been a crazy season and after tomorrow or sometimes this week I don’t have to watch Bobby’s fans or Bobby himself mouthing off about odds or fueling “his people” or whatever. I love Sharna and I want her to win but not this season. That would be embarrassing, knowing Sharna won with the lowest scoring finalist ever because her fans were desperate and Bobby’s fans wants him to win no matter the reason. I saw a Bobby fan commenting on instagram like “yeah we know he’s whiny and always complaining but we don’t care”. Wow, really? I know Sharna’s been in second place too many times and I agree she’s overdue but I’d rather wait for the right partner to come along. She just signed a new contract recently so she’s going be around for a while!
A couple of people are asking when to vote because they’re not on eastern or central time or because of football so here’s the thing:
If you live on Pacific time, you vote at 5pm in your area. If you live on Mountain time, you begin voting at 6pm in your area. You know about central and eastern already. Residents on Pacific and Mountain times will have to vote before they see the show in their areas. Voting ends 5 minutes after the final dance of the night ends. Just watch your social media, keep voting for just about two hours until voting on the website closes or just watch for the live blog here later tonight, I’m sure one of our lovely writers will probably keep us updated. 😉 So just set an alarm for 5pm if you live in California or somewhere around there in the Pacific time zone and same for 6pm if you live on Mountain time and you can still vote while you’re watching football! 😉
I’m hoping for Evanna, but we’ll get gifts from either an Evanna or a Milo win. Besides Evanna’s beautiful smile, we’ll get Keo’s reaction if she wins. And with a Milo win, we’ll get Camryn’s reaction. Either will be worth the wonkiness of the season.
I’ve loved Milo from night 1 so I hope he wins. I guess I’m the only person who didn’t see Keo tear up – I must have been multi tasking while watching. I really didn’t know Evanna from the Harry Potter movies but I did grow to like her very much so I would be OK with her winning but I’d really like it to be Milo.
Thanks for the blogs and numbers post all season long!
[…] to see what it takes to win, and who we think will win, see Courtney’s Power Rankings and my Dancing by the Numbers posts from this past […]
Hope you all have figured out that the only people missing DWTS tonight are those getting football – not everyone.
I am just to through with this show. There is no way that Bobby should have even been in the finals. He should have been one of the first ones to leave. His dancing did NOT improve during the whole time he was on the show. He was the worst one on day one and when the show ended last night, he was still the worst, no talent dancer of them all. This show is suppose to be about who is the best dancer NOT who is the most popular, who has the most fans. Milo was the best dancer–PERIOD!
I would argue that Bobby wasn’t even close to the “most popular” celeb on the show this season. It all comes down to votes and viewer mentality. It used to not have an impact because the audience was so much larger, but now if the viewers think that Milo or Evanna have it in the bag, and decide they don’t need to vote, then that makes a Bobby win possible. JUST LOOK AT OUR POLITICS! It’s the same damn thing. Well….usually it’s the same damn thing. This fall people actually woke up and realized they have to VOTE. That did NOT happen on DWTS, I would bet.