DWTS Season 27, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers and What it Takes to Win

As you know, it’s pretty hard (if not impossible) to do a real “Dancing by the Numbers” when the show is set up like it is this season. That is, the winner will be determined this Monday by *last week’s* votes, this weeks live vote and this weeks dance scores. It’s kind of crap – but at least they added a live vote to last weeks votes so if you voted for JP you have a shot to vote for someone else. Here are some important points from the press release before someone says, “but Heidi, the winner is determined only by the live vote” – not so, kids. Don’t listen to (other) people on the internet. 😉 Note the emphasis (added by me) in the second paragraph.

For the Repeat Dance, each couple will perform a tango, cha cha or Charleston. The Repeat Dance scores will be combined with the Freestyle Dance scores for a judges’ final tally. The judges’ tally will be combined with viewers’ votes from the previous week. Additionally, viewers can participate in an online-only live vote for the remaining couples, where, at the end of the night, one of them will be crowned the “Dancing with the Stars” champion.

Viewers will be allowed to participate in an online-only live vote at http://DWTSLiveVote.com. Voting will open at the beginning of the live broadcast and close approximately five minutes after the last dance. The live vote will only be available during the live broadcast in the Eastern and Central time zones. However, any individuals with access to http://DWTSLiveVote.com will be permitted to vote while the vote is open, regardless of their time zone (provided they are voting from within the U.S. and Puerto Rico).

First, let’s take a quick look at what it took for JP and Joe to be eliminated last week. As per usual, I see people getting hysterical, thinking this means Bobby is going to win. Or Alexis. Here was the leaderboard:

Dancer Score Team Dance Total % of total points awarded
Milo 27.00 27.00 54.00 16.82%
Evanna 30.00 28.00 58.00 18.07%
Bobby 21.00 24.00 45.00 14.02%
Juan Pablo 30.00 30.00 60.00 18.69%
Alexis 28.00 30.00 58.00 18.07%
Joe 22.00 24.00 46.00 14.33%
Total Points Awarded 321.00 1.00

What did Bobby have to do to be safe over Joe and JP?? Well, not a lot when it comes to Joe. A huge number when it comes to JP.

% Different Votes Needed Per Million
Bobby vs. Joe 0.31% 3,115
Bobby vs. Milo 2.80% 28,037
Bobby vs. Alexis/Evanna 4.05% 40,498
Bobby vs. JP 4.67% 46,729

But remember, this doesn’t mean everyone and their brother is voting for Bobby – it could easily mean that no one was voting for JP. Courtney and I have been saying since day one that he has had little to no impact. Good dancer? Of course. But very Juan Note (tm Courtney). 🙂 For Bobby to be safe in a double, he had to beat two people. He obviously beat Joe (3,116 votes per million) and JP (46,730 votes per million).  In order for JP to go home, though, it wasn’t just Bobby that beat him, it was EVERYONE.

Milo vs. JP 1.87% 18,692
Alexis/Evanna vs. JP 0.62% 6,231

That number on the far right is the number of votes per million votes cast that Milo or Alexis AND Evanna got to stay over JP.  So, everyone got more votes than he did. Hell, maybe even Joe did – but we’ll never know, because Joe was also in the bottom two.

Anyway, moving on –

So, to determine what it will take to WIN this season, I’m going to make a wild guess at the scores each couple will receive – in many cases I’m going to assume that they score similarly to how they scored last week. This is what I typically do during the live show and it has worked out reasonably well. I’ll let you know where I make any changes.

Now, without JP and Joe in the mix, the over all vote total decreases. I’m going assume that everyone except Bobby gets a 30 in their freestyle. I’m also going to assume that Bobby does a bit better in his re-do dance, scoring a 24. Alexis stays the same. I’m also going to assume that last week was a fluke for Milo and that he, along with Evanna, gets perfect scores. I’m thinking that, barring disaster, the judges are going to like either Milo or Evanna for the win and will score accordingly, putting Alexis just slightly behind them. Here’s what the leader board would look like in this scenario.

Dancer Re-do Dance Freestyle Total % of total points awarded
Milo 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.09%
Evanna 30.00 30.00 60.00 26.09%
Bobby 24.00 28.00 52.00 22.61%
Alexis 28.00 30.00 58.00 25.22%
Total Points Awarded 230

It’s always frighteningly close in the finale, but most of the time, the right person – or the right top two – emerges in the end.  What we will find out is if the lower number of voters – and the correspondingly lower number of voters – will throw a wrench into what is typically somewhat predictable end result for the show.  I think it unlikely, but you never know. Do the shippers or Bobby’s fans have strong enough fanbases to over rule the will of the average viewer?  I tend to think they’ll be offset by JP, Evanna, and  Milo fans pissed off that Bobby is still there.   If I’m even close to right, what will it take for Bobby to win the whole thing?

Bobby vs. Alexis 2.61% 26,087
Bobby vs. Evanna/Milo 3.48% 34,783

So, for Bobby to win, he would need to get roughly 26,100 more votes per million votes cast than Alexis and 34,800 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH Evanna and Milo.  Those are some decent numbers. He may be able to pass Alexis – and I wager he probably will, since in any normal season she would have been eliminated a couple weeks ago (showmance week, possibly).  But I don’t see him getting past either the Potter kid or the Disney kid – both have fanbases of their own and are very good to great dancers.  People who tend to tune in only for the finale will likely vote for the best dancer, if they vote at all.   I do think with the addition of a live vote, the judges will play it safe and NOT hand out any pity scores – that is, they won’t know for sure how he’s doing so he’s unlikely to get two perfect scores. I’ll be surprised if they give him one perfect score.

What will it take for Alexis to win? Well, if I’m close on the scores it only takes getting about 9k more votes per million votes cast than BOTH  Evanna and Milo AND she needs for Bobby to not cover the spread.  Meaning she needs for him to NOT get the 26k more votes per million votes cast than her.   She could maybe get past one of Evanna or Milo, but I don’t see her beating both of them.

What will it take for Evanna or Milo to win? Well first off, they need for Bobby to not cover the spread of  about 34,800 more votes per million votes cast. Second, they need for Alexis to not cover her spread of about 9k more votes per million votes cast.  If neither spread gets covered – meaning that Bobby and Alexis get 3rd and 4th places, then whichever of Evanna or Milo gets more votes, wins.  It can be as little as by ONE vote.   Yes. ONE VOTE.  So, if you have a favorite between those two, you best vote your fingers to the bone during the show. Every vote is going to count.  As they always do. 🙂

What do I think WILL happen on Monday night?? Well, I think Milo is going to take it home.  I think they will finish like this:

4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Evanna
Winner – Milo

Now ask me what I WANT to happen on Monday night. 🙂 Here’s what I want to happen – and honestly, it’s a pretty tough call. Even money says to me that either Evanna or Milo wins, but since I so rarely get what I want when it comes to this show, I hedge my bets. Here’s what I WANT to happen:

4th – Alexis
3rd – Bobby
2nd – Milo
Winner – Evanna

I think it’s really too close to call between Evanna and Milo and everything hinges on not only the dancing and the scoring on Monday night – but I suspect a lot will depend on the spin and how each couple is portrayed. I’ve never wanted a pro to talk about how they’ve never won before – time for Keo to speak up, man. 🙂 If Bobby shows his true colors – the colors I’ve been hearing about on his radio show – then that helps Alexis. I don’t think Milo can do anything wrong, per se, it’s more about how his competitors look on their own. Keo’s real emotion the other week when Erin was talking about how she teases him and comments on how he’s never made it this far – that felt like a show-winning moment to me. But was it?? It was much more genuine and heartfelt than anything coming from Alexis and Alan (or Bobby and Sharna) – but was it enough?? I sure as hell hope so. That was a moment where I sat up and said, “Damn, they could win this thing.”

What do you think??