DWTS Season 21, Week TEN – Dancing by the Numbers

I wrote this week’s numbers post two different ways because we’re not sure how they’re counting votes and scores.  I was thinking they would use both the 9th and the 16th scores and votes, since there wasn’t a true elimination. But then it was suggested that since Tamar was “eliminated” and that they revealed a supposed low combined scoring person, that they would simply use the votes and scores from this past Monday (the 16th). Plus, when you look at the scores from 9th, it’s very likely was Tamar that would have been eliminated naturally, if she hadn’t withdrawn. She only had one point on Alek, after all.  But who knows? I’ll just write it both ways. It’s instructive to see what huge numbers of points does to the margins.

ETA: And Option number 1 it is! Per Orlando Sentinel and Just Jared as a back up:

One couple will be ejected as Monday’s show ends. ABC said that couple will have “the lowest combined viewer and judge votes from the previous two weeks.”

The first option is they use the points and scores from both weeks. And, as you can see, that’s a whole lotta points.

DWTS Week 10 table 1

Alek is the low man on the totem pole doing it this way, with Bindi way out in front and Nick in third place. Kinda crazy. Kinda suspicious. Are we going to hear that Carlos is going to go on tour shortly?? I don’t get the appeal.

Anyway, all those numbers means that the voting margins are pretty tiny between Alek and Nick.  Four points between those two only translates to 7,220 votes, which is NOTHING.  In fact, Bindi is the only one with a somewhat comfortable margin.

DWTS Week 10 table 2

Now, we think that Nick was perhaps on the very bottom last week – but I would be willing to bet that he and Bindi got a huge bump in votes after Tom putting them both in jeopardy. Good thing too, because I’m not at all sure what would happen if they do the votes/scores this way.

So, in this scenario, I think that Carlos gets eliminated on Monday night. Why do I think that? Because of the margins and the whole “Nick and Bindi in jeopardy thing.  Look at it this way – what does Carlos need to be safe? He needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • Alek DOES NOT get 7,225 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • Nick DOES NOT get 3,650 more votes per million votes cast, OR;
  • Carlos DOES get 16,250 more votes per million votes cast than Bindi.

Now, after the way things went down this past Monday, I only see Alek as remotely possible in not getting the votes, but don’t think that’s happening. For this reason, I think it would be Carlos in this situation.   Of course it’s possible that Nick or Bindi aren’t getting the votes I think they are, but remember – they only have to beat ONE margin to be safe, not all of them. So, if Nick beats only Carlos’ margin, he’s still safe to dance on Tuesday. And if Bindi is getting beat by both Nick and Carlos, but not Alek, she’s still safe on Monday night.

Now, let’s look at the (more likely?) other scenario. Everything is back to normal and the person eliminated on Monday night is based on the scores and votes from this past Monday. What are we starting with? Well, a much smaller total number of points handed out, for one thing.

DWTS Week 10 table 3

In this scenario, Carlos is now tied with Bindi for first place and *Nick* is in last place. By a good bit too. And these points result in a larger margin.

DWTS Week 10 table 4

And now I just don’t know what’s going to happen. Other than I think Bindi is safe. I just can’t believe that Carlos is getting the one vote per million votes cast that he would need to be safe over her.

But the rest of it? No earthly idea. You tell me. 🙂

Remember, either Nick or Bindi was the low person on the totem pole, which meant that Carlos did beat the spread on one of them. I’m guessing Nick, because:

  • For Carlos to beat Nick, he needed roughly 12,400 more votes per million votes cast.
  • For Carlos to beat Bindi, he needed roughly 27,870 more votes per million votes cast.

I can’t believe he did either, but beating Nick is far more plausible than beating Bindi. That’s about half the number of votes Nick now needs to beat Carlos, a swing of more than 35k votes. So, was Tom putting Nick and Bindi in jeopardy enough to make that swing? And if Nick can’t beat Carlos, is he beating Alek or Bindi?

Alek was safe last time and for either Nick or Bindi to be the actual bottom, that means that:

  • Alek got roughly 21,700 more votes per million votes cast than Nick, and/or;
  • Alek got roughly 37,200 more votes per million votes cast than Bindi.

Again, I don’t see the second one happening, but the first one could have. Probably DID. Now, many people at this point cry “Why is Carlos/Alek getting so many votes” – my response always is, maybe they aren’t getting tons of votes, but Nick wasn’t getting hardly ANY.  To be getting beat by Carlos AND Alek, you’d pretty much have to be getting a small number of votes. Question is – did jeopardy turn that around??

Let’s spell it out. For Nick to be safe, ONE of the following things has to happen:

  • Nick has to get 13k more vote per million votes cast than Alek, OR;
  • Nick has to get 26k more votes per million votes cast than Bindi OR Carlos.

Now, despite what a couple crackpot posters around here like to claim, the Backstreet Boys are way bigger than…whatever Carlos’ band name is. I mean, there’s no question. I’m not being insulting, I would actually have to go look it up but I don’t care that much. But did Carlos, with Alexa’s help, garner more of the general audience than Nick did, or did BSB nation just get lazy?? I tend to think that the BSB nation got lazy or comfortable. Did they turn it around? Dunno, I need to look at more scenarios.

For Alek to be safe, ONE of the following has to happen:

  • Nick doesn’t get the 13k votes per million votes cast to beat him, OR;
  • Alek gets 13k more votes per million votes cast to beat either Carlos OR Bindi.

For Carlos to be safe, ONE of the following things has to happen:

  • Nick doesn’t get the 26k more votes per million votes cast than Carlos, OR;
  • Alek doesn’t get 13k more votes per million votes cast than Carlos, OR;
  • Carlos gets ONE more vote per million votes cast than Bindi.

And finally, for Bindi to be safe, ONE of the following things has to happen;

  • Nick doesn’t get 26k more votes per million votes cast than Bindi, OR;
  • Alek doesn’t get 13k more votes per million votes cast than Bindi, OR;
  • Carlos doesn’t get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Bindi.

Don’t know about Alek, but I don’t think Nick or Carlos are getting the votes to beat Bindi, so I do think she’s safe.

I also think that Alek is either beating Carlos’ 13k votes or Nick isn’t covering the spread to beat Alek, so I tend to think that Alek is safe.

And that leaves us with Nick and Carlos. You pick. I can’t decide. 🙂 My traitorous gut is saying Nick is toast, but my brain says that BSB nation rallied and Carlos is going to pay for it.

What say you?