DWTS Season 22, THE FINALE – Dancing by the Numbers WHO’S GONNA WIN??

Well, that’s somewhat surprising. At the end of the night there was a tie, but it was a tie for second, with Paige all alone at the top.  I didn’t get to see the show live, I am going on youtube and the scores with this commentary. I will likely get to watch the show before the finale-finale, but I need to write this before then.  🙂

I will just say…”the best dance ever on DWTS”??? Bullshit. Typical judge hyperbole and they say it at least once every season and it never means anything. It’s obvious when it’s actually true – very obvious. Sharna should know better than to buy into this – really, where have you been? The audience is MUCH smarter than this and this is the mistake people on this show continue to make every season. It’s ridiculous. Thanks for playing, try again.

Anyway, the scores do make me wonder if the judges really understand how the show works – and if they remembered that last weeks scores and votes count too. Do I really think they would rank it Paige – Ginger – Nyle and then give everyone a 30 on their freestyle if they knew it would result in this?

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No, I’m not sure I believe that the judges would allow Paige to be alone at the top with a four point cushion.  I think they might believe that Paige only has a one point lead and that they ranked them how they think they should finish. The crack is strong in these judges. 😉

Anyway, what this means is that if either Nyle or Ginger want to win, they have to get about 8,700 more votes per million votes cast than Paige does.

It’s really that simple. But what happens when they add points tomorrow?? I have a really hard time believing that the judges will change the rank – they RARELY change the spread or the rank after the votes have been cast. I don’t think they will do it tomorrow. I wager they will give everyone the same score – and this will reduce the margin.

How much? If everyone gets a 30 on their fusion, Ginger or Nyle will need 7,300 more votes per million votes cast to WIN over Paige.  It can certainly happen – someone can beat her.  Tony claimed that there was only three or four percent between the couples. But what does that mean? Between the couples with the combined score?? Between the couples votes? I have no idea what the context is on this. ETA in the morning: Saw a bit of the show, and Tom said after the judges scores and your votes were combined there is only a 3% difference between them. That means that it’s anyone’s game. Like it was before. 🙂

So what do I think will happen? I think that if the judges don’t tinker tomorrow, Paige will squeak out a win. If not her, then Nyle will take it. But I’m leaning towards Paige. The only thing that will really piss me off is if Ginger manages it.

But I don’t think she will…I think/hope/pray it will be Paige and Mark.

ETA:  and to show how schizophrenic I am, this morning when I woke up I was leaning toward Nyle squeaking out a win. That’s just how close it is.   Still praying for Paige though. 🙂