DWTS Season 14, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers

Boy, what a crap ass night. And yet, extremely predictable. I have to wonder if Katherine just isn’t getting the votes because she was the biggest example of over scoring last night, by far. Unless you like Vanilla Sambas. I restrict my vanilla to COFFEE, thank you. :-) William was too, but he actually got critiqued. Mark and Maks go back to their old ways…Donald and Roshon are, once again, under scored for the benefit of the favored children…it was an all around disappointing night.

I have to laugh at anyone who believes that Derek is favored – judges kinda made a fool of you, didn’t they. LOL. Yep, Maria is in trouble tonight. I think she might pull it out, but she is the least well known of the non-judge’s pets of this season. Weellll…

Let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Katherine 39 15.12
2. Jaleel 37 14.34
3. William 36 13.95
4. Donald 34 13.18
5. Maria 30 11.63
5. Melissa 30 11.63
7. Roshon 28 10.85
8. Gladys 24 9.30

Gladys is, once again, at the bottom of the leader board. The question is….does she have the juice to pull it out tonight?  Last week, Gavin and Melissa were both below her in scores, but Gavin and Jaleel were in the bottom two. Melissa only needed 4,500 (chump change) votes to pull ahead of Gladys and 13,400 to pull ahead of Jaleel. Gladys only needed 8,900 votes per million votes cast last week for Jaleel to then fall into the bottom two – this week it’s a lot more and she doesn’t have the protection of Melissa and Gavin being below her. What has to happen for Gladys to stick for another week?? She has to stay out of the bottom two for one thing. For that to happen, she needs TWO of the following things:

-          Gladys needs to get 15,500 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, OR;

-          Gladys needs to get 23,260 more votes per million votes cast than either Melissa or Maria, OR;

-          Gladys needs to get 38,760 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, OR;

-          Gladys needs to get 46,520 more votes per million votes cast then William, OR;

-          Gladys needs to get 50,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, OR;

-          Gladys needs to get 58,150 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine.

Clearly, Katherine is going nowhere. Again I wonder if she’s not getting the votes because she’s not that much better than Donald.  Now, Gladys can get past Roshon (and this is likely why we have the dance duel, cuz I think it would be easy), but whether she can get past Maria and Melissa is a mystery that will be solved tonight. They have insulated Jaleel, our other bottom two dweller, pretty well.  Will he end up in the bottom two again? Read on.

Roshon is next on our list – and on a night when I thought he danced better than William and Katherine both. Roshon has been in the bottom two…and on judges scores alone, he’s in the bottom two again. But is he when it comes to the combined total?? Based on the judges scores, and assuming that Gladys gets the votes she needs, Roshon needs TWO of the following in order to be safe:

-          Roshon needs to get 7,760 more votes per million votes cast than either Melissa or Maria, OR;

-          Roshon needs to get 23,260 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, OR;

-          Roshon needs to get 31,010 more votes per million votes cast then William, OR;

-          Roshon needs to get 34,890 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, OR;

-          Roshon needs to get 42,650 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine.

Gotta say, I’m not really sure what’s going to happen here. Roshon has fallen into the bottom two before, when tied with Maria and four points ahead of Melissa. Now, he’s a couple points below both of them. So, have the Roshon fans mustered enough votes to make up a defict where there wasn’t one before?? I kinda doubt it, but you never know. Roshon got hosed so his fans might have really gotten it together.

So, Gladys has beaten Roshon before. And Maria and Melissa have beaten Roshon before. Why does this dance duel piss me off? Well, in a normal situation it’s rather possible that Roshon would be going home. But in this one?? I kinda doubt it.  So, those three ladies have beaten Roshon. But what we don’t know is how Gladys is doing against either Melissa or Maria. She needs more than 23k to pass either of them. And she’s Gladys Knight. I just don’t know if she will or not. My gut tells me that Maria is in serious danger here, mainly because she’s up against two women who are much more well known. Yes, she has Derek, who I think is arguably more popular than Maks or Tristan, just by watching how he went from a 20k deficit on Twitter relative to Maks to a 30k surplus in the space of about 6 months (sue me, I’m the numbers girl, these things interest me), among other things. But that’s anecdotal. And I think that might just pale in comparison to the voters that Gladys and Melissa may or may not have on their own. I also don’t know of ANY Derek fans who claim to have 7,000 verified email accounts. :-)

Anyway…in the interest of time (ie – I have NONE), I’m going to talk about Melissa and Maria, then skip to Jaleel.  I think Donald is safe, actually – mainly because Jaleel has been in the bottom two before. What does Maria (or Melissa) need in order to be safe this week??  She needs TWO of the following things to happen to stay out of the bottom two:

-          She needs Gladys to NOT get 23,260 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;

-          She needs Roshon to NOT get 7,760 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;

-          She needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Melissa (or vice versa), OR;

-          She needs to get 15,500 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, OR;

-          She needs to get 23,260 more votes per million votes cast than William, OR;

-          She needs to get 27,200 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, OR;

-          She needs to get 34,900 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine.

Now you see why I’m fairly confident that the dance off will be between two people who are already in the bottom four.  In terms of Jaleel, he had to get a bit more than 13k votes than Maria last week to stay out of the bottom two and didn’t do it.  However, there is a big difference between him not covering the spread and Maria having to cover a spread – we don’t know if she can. Period. Their positions are reversed.  Melissa, on the other hand, had to beat 13,300 votes spread per million votes cast to beat Jaleel and she did. This week the number is a good bit higher, though, so we will find out tonight if she can do it. What we don’t know is how she’s doing relative to Maria. Plus, three of the four bottom people (excluding Roshon) would have to beat the spread to send Jaleel to the bottom two.

The bottom two dance off??  Well, like I said in the comments, I would bet money that this is going to be a situation exactly opposite of what they intended when they instituted this little plan. I would be willing to bet that Roshon and Maria end up in the dance off, leaving two worse dancers still in the competition. I have a feeling that Roshon would beat Maria simply because I can’t see her doing a jive with fractured feet, regardless of what she says. While I would be very sad to see either of them go (and taking Derek with them, hopefully on to his own movie stardom), the very evil part of me would go to bed early next Monday cackling over how they are STILL losing good dancers to bad ones with big fanbases DESPITE their little games.  Well, I wouldn’t go to bed TOO early…I’d have to vote for Donald, if it’s Maria that goes home. ;-)

Anyway, the bottom two is going to look something like one of these scenarios:

-          Gladys Versus Roshon; Roshon Wins

-          Gladys Versus Maria; Maria Wins

-          Gladys Versus Melissa – tough call, but probably Melissa wins

-          Roshon Versus Melissa; Roshon Wins

-          Roshon versus Maria – tough call, but probably Roshon

-          Maria Versus Melissa, Maria wins (I don’t really see this one happening)

Unfortunately, at the end of the day, I’m not sure that Maria can get past two much more well-known women and one young guy who can dance and has a growing legion of pissed off fangirls behind him.  For that reason, in spite of better dancing and as much as it pains me, I’m saying that Maria is going home with Roshon in the bottom two with her.  My second scenario would have to be Roshon and Gladys in the bottom two with Gladys going home.

Hope I’m wrong…I’d love to see the backside of Jaleel. Figuratively speaking, of course. :-)  Even better would be William…but that’s not happening.

P.S. I’m officially out of town and won’t be around to answer questions about these numbers until late tonight or maybe tomorrow. Courtney will be doing the Spoiler post tonight after the show and because of how the site was going up and down last night, I’m going to ask all of you to remember – if I see your name every other comment in a comment heavy night, you need to take a few deep breaths between posts.  Talk all you like, just please be cognizant of not constantly repeating the same thing or doing numerous posts right in a row. If the site keeps crashing on Courtney tonight, she may kill one of you. :-D