DWTS Season 14, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers
Boy, what a crap ass night. And yet, extremely predictable. I have to wonder if Katherine just isn’t getting the votes because she was the biggest example of over scoring last night, by far. Unless you like Vanilla Sambas. I restrict my vanilla to COFFEE, thank you. 🙂 William was too, but he actually got critiqued. Mark and Maks go back to their old ways…Donald and Roshon are, once again, under scored for the benefit of the favored children…it was an all around disappointing night.
I have to laugh at anyone who believes that Derek is favored – judges kinda made a fool of you, didn’t they. LOL. Yep, Maria is in trouble tonight. I think she might pull it out, but she is the least well known of the non-judge’s pets of this season. Weellll…
Let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Katherine | 39 | 15.12 |
2. | Jaleel | 37 | 14.34 |
3. | William | 36 | 13.95 |
4. | Donald | 34 | 13.18 |
5. | Maria | 30 | 11.63 |
5. | Melissa | 30 | 11.63 |
7. | Roshon | 28 | 10.85 |
8. | Gladys | 24 | 9.30 |
Gladys is, once again, at the bottom of the leader board. The question is….does she have the juice to pull it out tonight? Last week, Gavin and Melissa were both below her in scores, but Gavin and Jaleel were in the bottom two. Melissa only needed 4,500 (chump change) votes to pull ahead of Gladys and 13,400 to pull ahead of Jaleel. Gladys only needed 8,900 votes per million votes cast last week for Jaleel to then fall into the bottom two – this week it’s a lot more and she doesn’t have the protection of Melissa and Gavin being below her. What has to happen for Gladys to stick for another week?? She has to stay out of the bottom two for one thing. For that to happen, she needs TWO of the following things:
– Gladys needs to get 15,500 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, OR;
– Gladys needs to get 23,260 more votes per million votes cast than either Melissa or Maria, OR;
– Gladys needs to get 38,760 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, OR;
– Gladys needs to get 46,520 more votes per million votes cast then William, OR;
– Gladys needs to get 50,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, OR;
– Gladys needs to get 58,150 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine.
Clearly, Katherine is going nowhere. Again I wonder if she’s not getting the votes because she’s not that much better than Donald. Now, Gladys can get past Roshon (and this is likely why we have the dance duel, cuz I think it would be easy), but whether she can get past Maria and Melissa is a mystery that will be solved tonight. They have insulated Jaleel, our other bottom two dweller, pretty well. Will he end up in the bottom two again? Read on.
Roshon is next on our list – and on a night when I thought he danced better than William and Katherine both. Roshon has been in the bottom two…and on judges scores alone, he’s in the bottom two again. But is he when it comes to the combined total?? Based on the judges scores, and assuming that Gladys gets the votes she needs, Roshon needs TWO of the following in order to be safe:
– Roshon needs to get 7,760 more votes per million votes cast than either Melissa or Maria, OR;
– Roshon needs to get 23,260 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, OR;
– Roshon needs to get 31,010 more votes per million votes cast then William, OR;
– Roshon needs to get 34,890 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, OR;
– Roshon needs to get 42,650 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine.
Gotta say, I’m not really sure what’s going to happen here. Roshon has fallen into the bottom two before, when tied with Maria and four points ahead of Melissa. Now, he’s a couple points below both of them. So, have the Roshon fans mustered enough votes to make up a defict where there wasn’t one before?? I kinda doubt it, but you never know. Roshon got hosed so his fans might have really gotten it together.
So, Gladys has beaten Roshon before. And Maria and Melissa have beaten Roshon before. Why does this dance duel piss me off? Well, in a normal situation it’s rather possible that Roshon would be going home. But in this one?? I kinda doubt it. So, those three ladies have beaten Roshon. But what we don’t know is how Gladys is doing against either Melissa or Maria. She needs more than 23k to pass either of them. And she’s Gladys Knight. I just don’t know if she will or not. My gut tells me that Maria is in serious danger here, mainly because she’s up against two women who are much more well known. Yes, she has Derek, who I think is arguably more popular than Maks or Tristan, just by watching how he went from a 20k deficit on Twitter relative to Maks to a 30k surplus in the space of about 6 months (sue me, I’m the numbers girl, these things interest me), among other things. But that’s anecdotal. And I think that might just pale in comparison to the voters that Gladys and Melissa may or may not have on their own. I also don’t know of ANY Derek fans who claim to have 7,000 verified email accounts. 🙂
Anyway…in the interest of time (ie – I have NONE), I’m going to talk about Melissa and Maria, then skip to Jaleel. I think Donald is safe, actually – mainly because Jaleel has been in the bottom two before. What does Maria (or Melissa) need in order to be safe this week?? She needs TWO of the following things to happen to stay out of the bottom two:
– She needs Gladys to NOT get 23,260 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
– She needs Roshon to NOT get 7,760 more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
– She needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Melissa (or vice versa), OR;
– She needs to get 15,500 more votes per million votes cast than Donald, OR;
– She needs to get 23,260 more votes per million votes cast than William, OR;
– She needs to get 27,200 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, OR;
– She needs to get 34,900 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine.
Now you see why I’m fairly confident that the dance off will be between two people who are already in the bottom four. In terms of Jaleel, he had to get a bit more than 13k votes than Maria last week to stay out of the bottom two and didn’t do it. However, there is a big difference between him not covering the spread and Maria having to cover a spread – we don’t know if she can. Period. Their positions are reversed. Melissa, on the other hand, had to beat 13,300 votes spread per million votes cast to beat Jaleel and she did. This week the number is a good bit higher, though, so we will find out tonight if she can do it. What we don’t know is how she’s doing relative to Maria. Plus, three of the four bottom people (excluding Roshon) would have to beat the spread to send Jaleel to the bottom two.
The bottom two dance off?? Well, like I said in the comments, I would bet money that this is going to be a situation exactly opposite of what they intended when they instituted this little plan. I would be willing to bet that Roshon and Maria end up in the dance off, leaving two worse dancers still in the competition. I have a feeling that Roshon would beat Maria simply because I can’t see her doing a jive with fractured feet, regardless of what she says. While I would be very sad to see either of them go (and taking Derek with them, hopefully on to his own movie stardom), the very evil part of me would go to bed early next Monday cackling over how they are STILL losing good dancers to bad ones with big fanbases DESPITE their little games. Well, I wouldn’t go to bed TOO early…I’d have to vote for Donald, if it’s Maria that goes home. 😉
Anyway, the bottom two is going to look something like one of these scenarios:
– Gladys Versus Roshon; Roshon Wins
– Gladys Versus Maria; Maria Wins
– Gladys Versus Melissa – tough call, but probably Melissa wins
– Roshon Versus Melissa; Roshon Wins
– Roshon versus Maria – tough call, but probably Roshon
– Maria Versus Melissa, Maria wins (I don’t really see this one happening)
Unfortunately, at the end of the day, I’m not sure that Maria can get past two much more well-known women and one young guy who can dance and has a growing legion of pissed off fangirls behind him. For that reason, in spite of better dancing and as much as it pains me, I’m saying that Maria is going home with Roshon in the bottom two with her. My second scenario would have to be Roshon and Gladys in the bottom two with Gladys going home.
Hope I’m wrong…I’d love to see the backside of Jaleel. Figuratively speaking, of course. 🙂 Even better would be William…but that’s not happening.
P.S. I’m officially out of town and won’t be around to answer questions about these numbers until late tonight or maybe tomorrow. Courtney will be doing the Spoiler post tonight after the show and because of how the site was going up and down last night, I’m going to ask all of you to remember – if I see your name every other comment in a comment heavy night, you need to take a few deep breaths between posts. Talk all you like, just please be cognizant of not constantly repeating the same thing or doing numerous posts right in a row. If the site keeps crashing on Courtney tonight, she may kill one of you. 😀
i would hate for maria and roshon to be anywhere near the bottom two together this early (because that would be an awesome duel to save later in the season), but that is what happens when you ABSOLUTELY screw one in the performance dance, and the other one in the marathon. Im a Roshon fan, but i do like maria, so i pray some how the bottom three ends up gladys, roshon, melissa (well jaleel instead of gladys or melissa- being a really good prayer) because its inevitable roshon will be in the bottow two/three.
Thanks, Heidi! I was dreading this result! I might just head to the mountains (figuratively) myself tonight, because I don’t think I could bear it if Maria went home now, with two others who don’t dance as well as she does left in the competition! 🙁
Either way you slice it, looks like a rough night for a lot of us. Heidi, thanks as always for the time and effort you put into this post. I look forward to it every week, even though my team’s on the chopping block often, so to speak. Enjoy your night off, you deserve it!
I’m gonna be bummed if its Maria! I’m going with she will come in 4th this season with Donald, Katherine and William in the finals. I think its Gladys tonight.
Oh man, I pray it’s not Maria to go, Heidi? I will be even more upset than I will be if it’s Roshon?
I agree, it’s going to be a rough one tonight.
Oh, and excellent Numbers post again. I love these!
Thanks Heidi! I enjoy reading this blog every week- So thanks for doing them!
I would be sad to see Roshon, or Maria go…
Going to be a hard night… I just hope my favourites are safe.
I love Gladys and don’t care for Maria, but I do believe Maria deserves to stay at least another week or two. Its definitely going to be a rough night. Wishing it was Jaleel going, but if it comes down to Gladys or Maria, I hope its Gladys.
Interesting post. I would hate to see Maria leave too early (and especially Roshon) but, just playing devil’s advocate a little bit here, IMO, she is right where she belongs, score wise. I would call her overscored on her foxtrot last night. It was good, but I don’t think she deserved nines. Even Derek and Maria themselves looked shocked they got nines.
I agree it would be crappy to lose her before Gladys and Melissa. But when I look at the numbers, she is sitting about where she should to me. She shouldn’t be above Roshon based on dancing that I saw. She is above Gladys and tied with Melissa. On previous weeks, she should be far above Melissa–but last night Maria faltered a little, and Melissa did a bit better than usual. I would place her about tied with William on a scoring basis, if the judges scored him properly. But, she should not be above Donald, Katherine or Jaleel to me, based on pure dancing.
I do think it is blatant the judges were protecting their chosen ones, though. While Katherine should be at the top of the pack, I don’t think she should have that wide of a margin, and as I just stated, I think William should be in the bottom four, score wise.
Tonight will probably make me sad and mad and happy all at the same time, depending on who goes/stays/duels/etc. Sigh.
I think Gladys is the one who will be going home after being in the bottom two with either Maria or Roshon.
I hope you are wrong, too, Princess. The show has become somewhat of a bad caricature of itself. Even in earlier seasons when it seemed that a better dancer was sacrificed to a more popular celebrity, the judging and the format were not so offensive as to turn one off of watching. And now it seems that GSN is not airing any more seasons of DWTS. Does anyone know what is happening there? I would rather watch season 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 or 9 (well, you get the picture) when I already know the outcome than be subjected to this travesty. Having said all that, you know I will be glued to the set. May the dance fairy smile on Derek and Maria tonight and give us fresh reason to watch and hope!!
And of course, all of this assumes that there won’t be a “surprise” double elimination…
and if there is a surprise elimination, I think that puts Maria more in danger. There hasn’t been a whisper of a double elimination though other than on that one site, so who knows.
Personally, since I can’t make William go away, I’d prefer to see Melissa go. But I think it’s either Glady’s or Maria or Roshon. If there is a double elimination, then Gladys for sure, and who knows between Maria and Roshon!
I’m crossing my fingers that it won’t be Maria vs Roshon in the Dancing Duel – that would be the ultimate worst case scenario in my mind 🙁
What doesn’t add up to me: Why insist the Dancing Duel is to save the better dancer when the judges blatantly underscore one of the best dances of the night? If TPTB are going to be sneaky, they should make sure their stories line up first!
Lol, hoping Gladys and Tristen pulls a “Bristol” out. Roshon/Chelsie go against bad boy Maksim/Melissa and it’s a Roshon/Chelsie win. Anyway, someone has to go home tonight, I just hope it’s not one of my favs!
hoping it is not my favorite couple melissa and maks
that prediction of yours sounds pretty bad to me PH!!! but … in my mind i know you are right….
Great post Heidi! I think you may be right, which makes me sad. I am hoping for the best tonight for Maria/Derek. They are my favorite pair. I wish it were William or Jaleel leaving. However, the judges made sure that didn’t happen.
Tom just said NO double elimination THIS week…
What do they do?? Wait until they see if the right people are in the bottom first??? 😯
Hmmm, well based on Tom’s tweet, could be team dances and double elimination in Week 8, leaving 4 couples in the semis and 3 in the final. The other option would be 5 couples in the semis with a double elimination then…
@Meggie – Wouldn’t be at all surprised
ha ha i wouldnt put it pass tptb.
In that case…its most likely Gladys vs. Roshon, which will be an unfair cruel duel to watch… they shouldnt even subject the Empress of soul to that shenanigan, and just let her bow out gracefully.
Also saw this tweet from Brooke –
“morning…thx for tuning in last night #DWTS. I’m going into my 1st script mtg Hate to see say goodbye to another friend tonight!”
Maybe I’m reading too much into her tweet. Obviously, Derek’s one of Brooke’s friends but I’m trying to think who else she might be talking about, providing she was not just saying some generic BS. Gladys makes the most sense since everyone seems to adore her. Roshon & Chelsie? Melissa & Maks? Hmm, haven’t really noticed her being chummy with those folks but who knows?
I’m still going with my gut feeling that it’s going to be Maria & Gladys in the dance duel. Really hope that’s not the case but if Maria has to go in the duel tonight, I’d rather it be against Gladys than anyone else. (sorry Gladys & Tristan!!!)
Brooke was just saying some generic BS.
The ONLY place we saw anything said about a double-elimination was Robin Leach’s column, and he’s not exactly Barbara Walters, so I’m not sure it was ever on the table.
I’m gonna go bold and predict a bottom-2 of… Rochon & Chelsie and Maria & Derek. I think Gladys & Tristan have the votes for 1 more week (can’t say beyond that). And actually, those 2 teams would make a much more exciting dance duel, ’cause I honestly don’t know which team would be favoured…
Am glad that it isn’t a double elimination this week – think Maria would be in trouble for sure. Definitely think that @Meggie was right – they look at who their bottom 3 are before going for it!
Watching the videos from last night on the red carpet, think that Derek and Maria know they are in trouble – and Derek is pretty good at reading this show. Am nervous for Maria – going early with a so-so dance and then messing up the dance marathon means that I am not sure if they’ll have got many votes from floating viewers – obviously loyal fans will have voted.
Jive is a killer – though am glad it isn’t a cha cha – not their strong suit I think! Also concerned as Maria sounded pretty shattered on twitter today – think Derek has had her rehearsing all day and that can not be good for her feet – even if they are healing. Really hope they can make it – I love Derek’s Pasos. They are not going to win this thing, but deserve to outlast Gladys and Melissa (and preferably Jaleel and William for my choice!)
tom bergeron tweeted no double elimination tonight!
have you heard the buzz that tonight is the double elimination night?
Cool, thank goodness to no double elimination.
That gorgeous, sensual Rumba aside, I don’t think any of the Latin dances have been Maria’s strong suit. If it’s Roshon vs Maria in the dance duel tonight, he’ll definitely have the upper hand imo.
I agree though, I love Derek’s Pasos so they better make it through to next week! And hopefully they can last long enough to do the Argentine Tango as well….
Tom confirms no double eliminations this week or next week but hints there will likely be one in week 8.
Tom Bergeron @Tom_Bergeron
@moonchick Nope. Dance Duels tonight and next Tuesday but after that (ominous music cue)…#DWTS
That to me is the right way to do it. Gives all the couple another 2 weeks to build their case and avoids the BS of the show possibly eliminating a couple who wasn’t even in the bottom 2 this week.
This is one of those times I am relieved to be on the west coast. I can check online and will know who was eliminated before I even bother watching the results show. If Maria is eliminated I won’t bother. Anyone else I’ll watch it.
I still believe Maria is safe, or will at least survive a duel, but I am prepared for the worst.
The cynic in me says tptb were vacillating on a double elimination until they saw where the votes fell today. I agree with Heidi and others that believe bottom two will be Maria and Roshon. I don’t believe she can outdance Roshon and she’ll be the one to go. So sad especially since she tweeted that she wants to live to dance the paso. I’d hate to see Roshon go too. Neither deserves it.
I’m always in moderation lol. Ima bad girl.
I wonder if the reason for not having a double elimination is because they know that Gladys and, maybe, Melissa are in the bottom two and their favorites are safe?
I think it should be Gladys, Jaleel, or Melissa to go before Maria or Roshon. Just what if on the small chance Jaleel is picked to go? I can dream, can’t I? lol
@Faye
in that case, it would be the perfect time to do a double eliminations for tptb
hypothetically, if they knew gladys and melissa were in the bottom two and their favs were safe, it wouldnt matter who was in the bottom 3 with them, melissa and gladys would get sent home,,,and that would be a win win for the powers that are trying to protect their favs
Gladys is not as good as the others so it’s her time to go. I wouldn’t mind if Rashon or Jaleel went home since I find them annoying. I hope Maria can stick around for a couple more weeks.
I’m just thinking about last week, and how Jaleel had a rather long drop to find himself in the bottom two. Against him, Gavin didn’t stand a chance in the dance duel. But all judging crap aside, Roshon is clearly the better dancer, and has the stamina to keep up with the jive, so I find myself wondering… What if tonight’s dance duel were to be with Roshon and Jaleel? Maybe TPTB are setting the stage for a “shocking” elimination?
If Maria and Derek get the boot tonight, I get my Mondays back. I will not watch this show set up an obvious Katherine or William win.
I was so looking forward to this season but now it is just aggravating me. Don’t they know they are ruining the show.
Two weeks ago, Tom did say that the dance duel will be for 3 weeks, so that makes sense.
Thanks for the post Heidi. 🙂 Well, I now am more annoyed than ever at William and Cheryl-gate and think Roshon is in bad danger of getting as someone said ” Ralphed “. In a perfect world there would be a double elim tonight and William and Jaleel are both done but in the real world….ummm no. Thanks to the screwy juges and producers, seriously I can see them now. Lets seriously screw Roshon OVER and still critigue William a LITTLE harder ( as in actually not shower him with Roses and sing him a paean ) but still give him a point friggin pillow that will gurantee him to be safe. People will never notice! Paaalease. Anywho, at the end of the day I think it will come down to Maria and Roshon or Gladys and Roshon. In the former Maria goes and in the ladder, Gladys bites it. Either way it SUCKS.
IMO, the judges really, really underscored Roshon, in both the dance and dance-off. He should have been among the top 3 for the dance-off. I used most of my votes for him to compensate since the judges hosed him so badly. Hope he stays. I don’t think that he or Maria deserves to be eliminated yet.
Vogue – I’m right in there dreaming with ya!!!! 🙂
Since I got last week right on(not here on a dwts fan podcast) I might as well guess again. I’m gonna have to go with Roshon and Maria in the bottom 2, but I think Maria will come out victorious. Since I got it right last week, it will probaly be Gladys and Melissa in the duel to even everything back out.
Sally, oh good. lol
Zach, it DOES!!
Not long to wait now Guys!!
max is so hot and Bruno is so sexy
My prediction is Gladys and Roshon in the bottom 2. Gladys is toast. I will miss her.
Len is a hero to Jaleel. he saved them in the duel. 🙂
If Gladys or Melissa is saved early in the show, I am worried for a Roshon vs Maria show down.
Maria had one off night. She is not going to win because should outlast Melissa and Gladys IMO.
Also about Derek’s choreo this season, I love it. Salsa aside :). Imagine Katherine doing that foxtrot choreo. It was terrific with Maria but with a performer with Katherine, it would be amazing. I feel like while Katherine is good, Mark while better behaved until yesterday gold spats and all, the choreo reminds a lot of his other years. He just has a celeb partner who can pull it off.
I fear for Maria especially when there is a Derek paso next week. Hope for the best and Gladys leaves tonight. She is fun and I will miss Tristan but it is her time.
This week should be interesting to see how votes are going. I have to think the show is trying to create a buffer for Jaleel, Katherine and Will this week. I wonder if treating Roshon that way was also their way to get him votes. Usually doing that on reality shows gets you vote.
Bruno is classic. He mostly gives the highest score. 🙂
Derrek is so cute and tonight he will impress us by getting us a 10 be 🙂 not 🙁
In the past, maybe a few dancers were eliminated too early ( even though that’s what the viewers wanted ) but it always sorted itself out in the end. The right dancers always won …Heinz,JR,Nicole etc. Not everything is an exact science. I will take good dancing and great personality and back-story any day compared to great dancing but boring personality…but that’s just me. I fear this broken show is unfixable.
Poor Roshon 🙁 🙁 he really is Unpopular :(: Thats a shame as I like him and Chelsee sadly I think that Melissa and Maria might outlast him.
As soon as I knew that Gladys was in jeopardy, I knew that she will be gone 🙁 ! Classy lady, great smile and hopefully others will learn a lot from her.
Dont know what the different couples are doing next week and since its classical week I expect a lot of ballroom dances .
Plus Katherine first 30 if its a ballroom 🙂 :).
This might be actually the last time I watch the result show, didnt enjoy it all 🙁 , too much fillers when I only want to know the result. Beautiful Macys of Dance though :).
WOW I cant believe that Melissa is so popular;I may have underestimated her popularity plus coupled with Maks ;).
Gee did Carrie Ann not get the memo that the dance duel is to save the better dancer? I adore Gladys but that Jive had no bounce.
[…] Heidi: Assumed there would be a single elimination, with Maria & Roshon in the bottom 2 and Roshon getting saved after the duel. Also thought there might be a chance that it would be Melissa & Roshon in the bottom 2, with Roshon still getting saved. […]
As I expected, the lightening didn’t strike twice. Even my guess as to what would happen instead of my original prediction was wrong wasn’t right. I’m just going to keep guessing and see how far off I am 🙂
Question: is it actually clear that the 4 couples in jeopardy were actually the 4 lowest combined scoring couples (i.e., combined judges scores and audience votes), or is it possible 1 or 2 couples of the 4 couples in jeopardy could have been higher scoring couples? I ask because I don’t recall them actually stating that the 4 couples in jeopardy were actually the 4 lowest combined scoring couples, and I remember previous seasons when they would have 2 couples in jeopardy at the end, yet state that those 2 couples were not not necessarily both the lowest scoring couples. Does anyone know? Thanks.