DWTS Season 14, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

Pardon me while I rant for a while.  I wrote this first section right after the show and to say I was pissed of might be an understatement. 🙂

Gee, I would really love that I so completely NAILED what the judges were going to do last night, if it didn’t suck so terribly BAD.  Seriously, Maria gets hosed by Len (twice), Roshon has a comeback arc, Wee Willy gets high scores of the night…the only thing I missed on was Katherine.  I cry foul. I hate being right. Only other thing I was wrong about was that it seemed it wasn’t a group effort but that Len was the designated ass last night.

In no universe was Willy’s first dance that much better than Maria’s – Len smokes crack. Then the second dance? Sure, Derek took a risk but I thought that dance was so cute and so creative…but I would understand an 8 from Len (since he lacks vision), but a 7?? Get real.  Me thinks Maria was getting the votes last week and Willy wasn’t.  Derek knows what he’s doing….he’s done it before. But a 7 and an 8?? You know what else? I wouldn’t even have minded the 7…if they had scored Willy realistically and that 8 for Maria’s V. Waltz had been a 9 like it should have been. That 30 for William was out of the park ridiculous.

And a word to those of you who claim that Len judges Derek’s choreo and it’s not fair – well, what did he do last night, eh?? Any hypocrites willing to go on record??  Just one of many things that annoy me. I personally think that the choreo is part of the package and that it goes to showcasing the celeb – but I see this complaint far too many times from people who won’t say a word about last night when Len made it EXTREMELY clear that he was judging the choreo – that’s all he talked about.  It does work both ways – if you hate judging on the choreo, you kinda have to hate it when it goes against Derek as well as when it works for him. Otherwise…

Then again, Cheryl clearly isn’t being judged on her choreo…at all.

Now let’s discuss Donald, shall we?? I dare you to play his two dances at the same time as William’s and tell me that William was the more deserving dancer. In what Universe?? Not only is Donald more enjoyable, but he’s actually the better mover!! Especially look at William’s trio dance – look at his pancake hands and how he has a tendency to stick his ass out. Then compare their showmanship – Donald wins hands down. Someone explain to me how Donald comes out two points behind in this deal?? He’s a far more exciting dancer and shouldn’t that be part of the deal?? Donald should have had the perfect score last night.

Really, Katherine is sweet but pretty boring when it comes to dancing…but she’s also ten times the dancer William is – please remove your genitalia from the scoring criteria. Thanks. If Katherine goes home tomorrow so that William can stay in order to build your Spanish viewers in preparation of the Univision deal, it’s on your heads.

Attention judges and TPTBWTHUCA – when *I* want to turn the channel and start praying for Derek to not come back to your show?? YOU got problems.  You’re really putting me off this show, and I would consider myself die hard (Derek or no Derek), considering how much time I spend on this damn blog.

Okay, now that that’s off my chest…

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Holeee cow!! This is a seriously small spread, people. Is this the first time that they’ve had 6 couples in the quarter finals?? Because two dances and six couples adds up to a whole lotta points and a VERY small spread. I honestly have no clue what is going to happen. Wow. If I were Katherine, I would hold my breath because Maria and Melissa don’t have to do much to pull this out.

Melissa is up first – she needs VERY little in order to stay away from the double elimination. Very little. She is totally untested against everyone left except for Roshon, so I guess we find out tonight how well she’s really doing. In order for Melissa to stick around, she needs TWO of the following:

–          She needs to get 6,120 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, AND/OR;

–          She needs to get 12,240 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Katherine or Donald, AND/OR;

–          She needs 15,300 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, AND/OR;

–          She needs 18,350 more votes per million votes cast than William.

And now you see the issue. These numbers are TINY.  We already know that she can beat Roshon handily. The question is, is she covering the margin between her and Maria or her and Katherine, etc?? We don’t actually know and I can’t really hazard a guess at this point.

What about Maria?? Well, again, the margins are small and we only know that she has beaten Roshon in the  past. What does she need in order to stick around? She needs TWO of the following:

–          She needs Melissa to not cover the spread, AND/OR;

–          She needs 6,120 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine OR Donald, AND/OR;

–          She needs 9,180 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, AND/OR;

–          She needs 12,240 more votes per million votes cast than William.

Again, wow.  Melissa might surpass Maria easily, but I feel like Maria can beat Katherine and Roshon. But it’s hard to say – only Maria is more unknown than Katherine in this cast.  This is CLOSE. And we have no idea who’s getting what votes. Okay, moving on…Katherine and Donald. What do they have to do to stay, besides hope that Maria and Melissa don’t cover the spread??  They need TWO of the following to happen:

–          He/She needs 3,060 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, AND/OR;

–          He/She needs 6,120 more votes per million votes cast than William, AND/OR;

–          He/She needs ONE more vote that Him/Her. 🙂

–          He/She needs neither Melissa nor Maria to cover their respective spreads.

Okay. I think Katherine clearly beats Roshon. But I don’t think she’s beating William OR Donald. But she doesn’t have to as long as she’s beating Roshon and either Melissa or Maria isn’t covering the spread.

So, at the end of the day, I think that only Donald and William are safe, but even then, William’s safety is not a sure thing.   But let’s guess that William and Donald are safe – I’m relatively comfortable with that, thanks to the judges ridiculous pimping of William. But that same pimping also makes me wonder – what are they afraid of?

Again, I digress. I can’t seem to help it this week.  I can’t help but think that Roshon is going to go home. He was in the bottom two three times and his being in the bottom two didn’t seem to help his standings at all. Meaning that he continued to fall into the bottom two even AFTER his fans got “scared” by nearly being eliminated. That hasn’t pulled him out of the bottom two. Tonight the spreads are smaller than ever and he’s not as protected as one might think. Last week, Melissa only needed 13.7k to beat Roshon and she got it. This week? She only needs 15.3k – that’s more, but this guy has been in the bottom two three times – Melissa has never been there.

Maria has never been there either, and for the same reason listed above, I think she beats Roshon. The question is – how is she doing against the rest?? I have no clue. At all.   For whatever reason, I look at those numbers and think it’s going to be Katherine and Roshon – that’s just my gut instinct.  My brain keeps telling me Katherine….now maybe it’s Roshon that I’m wrong about and it will be either Katherine and Maria or Katherine and Melissa.  But then I go back to all the times that Roshon’s been in the bottom two…can he really pull it out this time when the numbers are smaller for everyone except Melissa?  Here’s what the people below him collectively need for Roshon to be eliminated:

–          Melissa  needs 15,300 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon;

–          Maria needs 9,180 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon;

–         Katherine (or Donald)  needs 3,060 more vote per million votes cast than Roshon.

Hmmm…..this is a tough one. Katherine can certainly get the votes to beat Roshon. The problem here isn’t that – it’s what Melissa and Maria have in terms of voters. Since it’s a double elimination, it’s not enough for Katherine to beat Roshon, she also needs Melissa and Maria to NOT cover their spreads.  If both of them do, then Katherine goes home in this scenario.

The big question marks here are really Katherine, Maria and Melissa.  We know all three have beaten Roshon at least once for Roshon to fall into the bottom two. Melissa was scored lower than Roshon two out of the three times he fell into the bottom two – she’s proven against him. But she’s not proven against the other two ladies and the other two ladies aren’t as solid against Roshon. Maria was tied with Roshon one of the three times he was in the bottom two, but the other two times she was scored higher. This time she’s scored lower…so she’s in real danger here. It depends on how pissed off people were by Len’s scoring. Katherine? She’s a little more solid, theoretically, against Roshon than Maria is, since she was actually 2 points lower than Roshon one of the weeks he was in the bottom two. The other two weeks she was well head of him in scores.  So, it’s very likely that Roshon is in the bottom two again – but it’s not a sure thing.  Realistically, since Maria and Katherine had very little or no votes to get to pass Roshon such that he fell into the bottom two the previous three times, it might be that they weren’t getting that many more votes than him, they were just protected. Neither is protected this time and have to make up a margin. The question is, can they?

Melissa? Like I said, she’s proven against Roshon…but that’s not enough because of the double elimination. We have no idea how she stacks up against Katherine and Maria and both ladies are ahead of her in judges scores.  Has she worn out her welcome? Or is her fanbase too strong for Maria and Katherine?  Was Len’s tongue lashing and low scoring of Maria a galvanizing factor getting people to vote for Maria? Ah, great DWTS mysteries. 🙂

At the end of the day, I have to make a guess and I think Roshon is going to be in the bottom two.  I would like for it to be Melissa there with him. But NO combination of Roshon, Katherine, Melissa or Maria would surprise me in the slightest.   But, since I have to make a guess, I’m going to say Roshon and Katherine will be leaving us, based mainly on Melissa being well known and Derek/Maria fans being pissed off.  My second guess would be Roshon and Melissa.  My third guess would be Melissa and Maria.  How’s that for lack of commitment?? 🙂

I have two wagers for how it will go down tonight: ONE  is them calling Maria and Melissa safe FIRST (the two low scorers), leaving the other four in jeopardy with Roshon and Katherine going home; TWO is them calling Roshon and Melissa safe first (bottom two regular and low scorer, respectively), which means that Maria and Katherine will go home.  If my number two choice for elimination is correct, then neither of the two scenarios will happen. So….I’m conflicted.  🙂

ETA: Len is partly forgiven for calling Derek “a genius”.  And for feeling bad after the 7. Not that that will help if she goes home.