DWTS Season 26, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, last week’s results certainly seem to indicate that a lack of PR is a killer. Arike was ahead of FOUR people in scores, not counting Kareem and she was eliminated. And that’s a shame because I certainly liked her more than Jennie. Ah well. That’s the way it goes. Kareem couldn’t cover a small spread to stay over Jennie and Josh, and Arike just wasn’t getting any votes, judging by how many votes those below her needed to stay. Kinda surprising.
So, let’s take a look at where everyone stands on the leader board. Unfortunately, we can only use this as a guess because if they continue to use the show day scores to determine who goes home on that night, then these numbers are essentially meaningless. It’s only a bit instructive. To top it off, the judges can easily base their scores on who they want to go home – if they know who has the votes. They can take away the public’s power. And that sucks. But it is what it is.
What I will say is that we kind of have to base everything on how people are doing in general and make the assumption that there won’t be any huge changes. And so far, the only changes in trend are that Josh was scored lower due to going first, and Arike jumped in the standings by a good bit. Mirai and Adam stayed at the top, Tonya dropped a bit to tie with Chris and Jennie is with Josh in the bottom. I’m sure it’s totally a coincidence that the are three two way ties remaining and the dancers are neatly ranked exactly as you would expect, even though everyone was “randomly” split into teams. I’m sure it wasn’t planned at all. :::rolls eyes:::
Once Arike and Kareem left, Josh and Jennie are the low folks on the leaderboard. It does make you wonder though, if they are really using same day scores – because I just can’t believe that Jennie pulled it off over Arike. Which makes me wonder when the teams were decided and if it was really a schoolyard pick. Doubtful. Totally a coincidence that the two people who didn’t tie with anyone are the ones who went home. I don’t even know what that means, because those judges scores are done, right? It will be this past weeks votes with the coming weeks judges scores to determine who dances in the finale.
So, as I noted above, Josh and Jennie needed roughly 13k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Arike and they apparently got those votes. Chris and Tonya needed 7.5k more votes per million votes cast – it’s far less surprising that they got those votes than Jennie getting them. But what’s going to happen this coming week? Who the hell knows. If I was betting I would say that Mirai and Adam stay at the top of the leader board. I would also bet that the producers prefer Tonya over Josh (ratings! PR!!), hence she might rise on the leaderboard as well – it might also depend on who’s getting the votes. Judges like to be right, after all.
Let’s assume the standings remain relatively the same after the judges score on Monday, the possible exception being Josh rising on the leaderboard – I would bet Jennie or Chris go first, and get the lower score. But let’s use last weeks scores and you can switch Josh with Jennie or Chris to see how he might do if he rises on the board. What do Jennie/Josh need to do to make it to the finale?
Note I removed Kareem and Arike’s scores from the totals to make it more realistic, seeing as how they won’t be scored on Monday night. As you can see, Jennie and Josh theoretically need only 7.4k more votes per million votes cast in order to pass Chris and Tonya – that is not much. But this Monday you need to beat THREE people in order to make it to the finale, so Jennie (for example) would need to get ONE more vote than Josh AND get the 7.4k more votes per million votes cast to beat BOTH Chris and Tonya. One won’t do it – to stay you have to beat all three people. I doubt very much that Jennie beats any of those three (and definitely not all three), regardless of what order they are in.
But, perhaps a better way to look at it is who is most likely to NOT get beaten or who is likely getting the votes. How are Mirai and Adam looking? If you look again at table 3, you’ll note that if the spreads stay the same and Adam and Mirai remain firmly at the top of the leaderboard, it will take a lot of votes to dislodge them. In second place are Chris and Tonya – I think one of those two might get replaced with Josh.
Anyway, do you think than Jennie can beat out any of Josh, Chris or Tonya? I don’t. I think she’s low woman on the leader board. That leaves Tonya, Josh and Chris. Of those three, who is most likely to be the top dog? Depends on the spread, of course, but I think it goes one of two ways. One: Josh regains his standing from week 1 and goes to the finale with Mirai and Adam. Two: I’m not alone in my dislike of Mirai and she’s a shocking elimination, opening the door for both Tonya and Josh to go to the finale with Adam. Of course, the third possibility is that Tonya is killing it and she goes to the finale with Mirai and Adam.
Too much depends on crappy judging – it’s impossible to tell. If they continue true to form, I tend to think that number one is most likely…but I’m hoping for number two. 😉
I feel like Jennie isn’t going to make the finale but I did notice a trend: a lot of baseball fans that were rooting for Johnny Damon did switch to her after he was eliminated. Saying that, my dream final three would be Adam, mirai, and chris but I also really like josh so that last spot going to him would be great too.
I agree, Jennie is definitely getting eliminated, there’s no scenario in which she makes it to the finals. Also, I don’t think producers will allow an ALL THREE skater finale, and in my opinion, as you said, Mirai doesn’t seem too popular with the public, heck I’m seeing waaay more love for Tonya so I’m betting on Mirai being a shock elimination. I really think the final spot is between Chris and Josh, and down to the fact that he has a bigger fanbase with NFL, I do think Josh will get more votes and have a sort of comeback package next week and rise with scores, therefore IMO the final 3 will be: Adam, Tonya and Josh!:
Also did anyone notice how the ballroom dance offs were grouped?
Adam vs Mirai
Tonya vs Jennie
Josh vs Chris
I really do think one couple from each dance off will advance to the finals
Great job at giving this a go Heidi, my head is spinning for you 🙂
I’m going to stick with my gut and say we will not be seeing an all ice skater final (hoping not it’s too predictable if all 3 make it). I believe Adam is a lock, so it’s between Mirai or Tonya who are going to miss the cut. I expect 2/3 skaters in the finale.
I’m going to agree, I do not think Jennie has the votes (even if she scores better this week) to beat Josh, Chris or Tonya.
It’s all about the scores this week and unfortunately Josh took a dip in scores last week by going first, so I say he has a better chance to redeem himself and his score, especially since he has contemporary. I think Chris is most likely going to have another good week with his foxtrot, considering ballroom clearly works better than Latin style for him. Question is he got 9s last week is this foxtrot going to be 10 worthy? (I expect Josh’s contemporary to be better than his 7 scores last week). Then it comes down to these two facing off in the salsa. Chris does have the upper hand as he already learned salsa, and Josh has not, BUT I was not a fan of his salsa week 1..so I’m going with Josh, I expect salsa to suit him well like Cha Cha did.
Tonya is up in the air for me. I think she’s dancing very well but I legit have no idea how much support she’s getting verses the negativity she gets for her past. I have a feeling she may sneak in the final over Mirai (if Mirai goes first Monday) because I already guarantee Tonya will win the dance off against Jennie.
My final prediction: Adam, Tonya & Josh finale
Princess Heidi, What effect, if any, do you think having David Ross judge will have on the standings? Also don’t you think Adam and Josh both got a boost by getting contemporary which has no real rules and Tonya got hosed with Rumba which is full of rules so is much harder to get a high score on?
My feeling for the final is the three skaters. Adam is a lock, Mirai is really good (both annoy me somehow) and Tonya has done very well and brings the drama. Anything could happen, but I am confident in saying Jennie goes home and Adam is a finalist, the rest could all shift.
I definitely agree Jennie is the weak link. I feel she would have done better in a full season where she had time to grow and we had time to get to know her better.
I know people don’t like Mirai but I really do. I here some chatter about vote splitting with Adam causing her to go home but I think that’s probably affecting them less in this shortened format.
On the other hand I don’t find Josh as Appealing as everyone else does. I also did not care for that Paso at all.
What I’m hoping is Mirai and Adam make the final with Chris sliding into that last spot. If that’s the final three any one of them could win and I would be happy. This is the first season I have ever been able to say that. I usually have a firm favorite. I would also be okay with Tonya being the third.
I think Mirai could be the ‘shocking elimination’ And if Josh has the type of night week 3 that he did week 1, I think he could get in the finale. Yes, his Paso wasn’t near as good as his Cha Cha, but those scores last week don’t even matter this week. My prediction is Adam, Tonya, and Josh for the finals.
What I WANT to happen: Adam, Chris and either Mirai or Josh make the finals.
What I THINK will happen: I have a feeling Adam and Tonya are both killing it in the votes and will advance to the finals. I also think Jennie is now the low woman on the totem poll in terms of votes (and possibly scores next week) and will be eliminated along with Mirai, who I think is probably getting the second-lowest amount of votes right now. The last spot in the finals is between Chris and Josh and I think it will probably come down to whoever has a better showing next week. I’m gonna say Josh has a big comeback next week and makes it over Chris.
I hadn’t noticed that, S Omen – and it is interesting. I do think that the left half of the couples might be the the preferred finalists.
You only have an advantage with contemporary if you can pull it off, PJC. I think Adam pull it off. Josh? Jury is definitely out on that one. Ice skater versus football player. Tonya did get a bit hosed with the rumba, but I think she can pull it off.
[…] at PureDWTS, they admit that this season is tough to forecast when it comes to eliminations. They note that they feel confident that Adam and Jenna […]
I think Tonya will be the standout with rumba this week. They want her in the finals and looks to me like she has the support.
I can only tolerate both Adam and Mirai in small doses so I’d be fine with neither in the finals, but I think it will be both, unless the judges decide to hose Mirai — which wouldn’t surprise me.
My only reason for sticking this one out, really, is Josh so on the off-chance that one of the above doesn’t make it, I think he does.
Hoping Adam, Mirai and Josh (or Chris) make the Finals. Unfortunately, for me, they do seem to want Tonya in the Finals and I think she’ll make it in.
I still think the best use of this very short season would have been an all-star season. That said, I’ve enjoyed getting to know (even briefly) these contestants.
As for Tonya, in the interest of fairness I’ve spent some time reviewing a large amount of the old articles and interviews, as well as more recent material. In particular I watched the ’98 Breaking the Ice program where Tonya and Nancy sat down with James Brown. As I remembered, the apology she gave Nancy was, in my opinion, not a real apology. I’m glad I watched the whole thing again, though, because right after the non-apology, she told Nancy that if she’d known anything about the attack beforehand, she would have done anything she could; would have given up anything she had; to stop it. For 24 years she’s claimed she had no prior knowledge of the attack. Then I watched the interview she did with ABC (Truth and Lies) in January of this year. That Tonya is much closer to the Tonya I remember; and, of course, a very different Tonya than the one she’s portraying on DWTS. And, there it was, almost at the very end of the interview, with her movie in the can and long after the statute of limitations has passed on being able to charge her; she said that she “knew something was up” and that she heard “them” talking about “taking somebody out” about a month or two before the attack. And a moment later she stammered when asked a question about the timing…I guess she realized her mistake.
I stand by my original position that casting Tonya was a bad idea; but, so be it. She hasn’t, and won’t, get a single vote from me. She does appear to have support from the showrunners, though. The throwing of the flowers by the audience after her first dance, as is done at skating competitions, was a telltale sign.