Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

So, I think we all know what happened this week, but let me spell it out anyway. The scores from weeks 1 and 2 were combined, then divided by the total points awarded to give each contestant a percentage. That percentage was  50% of the total. The votes after week 1 for each contestant were divided by the total votes and for their percentage, which was the other 50%. When you combined the two, the contestant with the lowest combined total goes home. Keyshawn was ranked lowest and was therefore eliminated.  How did the scores and percentages look when the two weeks were added together, you ask? See below.

Table 1

In a nutshell, Bill Nye got at least 7.7k more votes per million votes cast than Keyshawn, and Keyshawn could NOT get the 7.7k more votes per million votes cast that he needed to beat Bill E. But there’s something else interesting to note before we move on. Maybe it’s important and maybe it’s not. But look back at Table 1, above: note how my predictions on scores roll out. I did pretty well, getting it either exactly right or only off by 1 point on 7 of 12 couples. The next three couples I was off by 2 points. And only on two people, Leah and Snookie, was I off by three points or more. Is it a coincidence that the two people who I was way off on are the ones likely to be getting lesser votes (Leah) and more votes (Snookie)??  Leah was way overscored, IMO, and Snookie underscored. Do you think the votes they are getting, or not getting, have anything to do with this? Well, look at it this way. See Table 2, below.

Table 2

You see in this table that the addition of Week 2’s scores to Week 1’s scores made it so that Leah was protected from elimination by 6 people, instead of just 4 like she had been after Week 1’s scores. Meaningful or meaningless?? Who knows? I just found it very interesting that the one person most people seemed to think was overscored AND who is not that likable (all anecdotal evidence, of course) is suddenly a lot safer than she was with only one week factored in. Considering that Snookie and Valerie are likely beating Leah easily in votes, it might be meaningless – but the point differential between Bill E and Leah did go from 3 points to 6 points, and that between Keyshawn and Leah from 4 points to 10 points. Just sayin’. Food for thought and all that.

Anyway, since we didn’t have a real bottom two, we don’t know how Bill E is really doing. I suspect that was a bottom two. I also suspect that Elizabeth was there in jeopardy as a portent of possible things to come, if her and Val’s fans don’t rally. Now is when it would be really handy if I had gotten my previous seasons elimination charts done. But, anecdotally, in the past there have been many, MANY instances where they started labeling someone as “in jeopardy” a week or two before they were actually eliminated. Apolo being one. Jacoby being another. Some troll was in here the other day proclaiming “Kellie was in jeopardy!! Zendaya never was.”  Actually, I don’t remember the former, but the latter is easy to look up. Zendaya was the last person to be called safe (meaning she was left standing up there next to the person who got eliminated – aka in “jeopardy”) in Week 9. Not Aly, not Jacoby, not Kellie – Zendaya. It may mean nothing, but…

What does that mean? Well, let’s take a quick look at who’s dancing what:

Christina and Amber – Charleston
Jack – Cha Cha Cha
Brant and Corbin – Quickstep
Bill N. – Jive
Bill E. – Paso
Valerie and Leah – rumba
Snookie – Paso (wearing the Paso skirt on Instagram)
Elizabeth – Jive (??)

I think Christina and Amber will be fine – and get about the same scores as this past week – with the Charleston. I also think that Brant will improve his score by a bit and Corbin will stay the same on the Quickstep.  Jack? Really not sure.  Valerie and Leah – probably both overscored to a huge degree. It doesn’t matter (yet) where Valerie is concerned, but I do think they are interested in protecting Leah for a bit, since she’s one of the bigger names. If Bill E is getting a ton of votes, they might change their minds on that. They’re not that stupid. But yes, I’m expecting Leah and Valerie to do AT LEAST as well in scores as they did this past week.  I also think that Bill E and Snicole have the potential to do better Paso’s than Leah does a rumba and both will get hosed on scores.  Elizabeth the huge ringer will handle anything thrown her way. But if I’m right about jeopardy? Her votes aren’t want they want them to be, which may contribute to the underscoring of Bill E and Snicole – those two, I think, are probably seen as disposable. And yes, this pisses me off.  Gotta have the hot guys, the popular women and great dancers – not sure that either Bill E or Snicole fall into either of those categories, although I think both are growing fanbases. So, underscore Bill and Snicole to make sure Elizabeth is safe.

I think Bill N., if he doesn’t exit due to his knee will never manage the Jive. But Bill N. is where it gets tricky. If he has a TON of people voting for him, like I suspect he does, he could still be safe because the votes from this past week are what’s going to count, in addition to the judges scores from this week. It’s tricky. If he doesn’t quit because of his knee – we’re going to see what his voting fanbase is made of, because I think he’s destined for 4’s. I don’t think the judges will miss the opportunity to get rid of a bad dancer if they have it – that might be a sign. If we were in the old show formula, week 3 might be where Bill N wears out his welcome – but we’re not, and in terms of votes it’s only week 2. That said, if they give Snicole and Bill E nice, great scores, look for Bill N. to dance last and end up not dancing at all but eliminating himself.  Which means the show will be short….hmmm….things could get interesting.

Okay, one of my many guesses is that they’ll show Bill’s rehearsal footage cuz he can’t dance on that night, they’ll go through the whole “you’re safe!!” or “you’re in jeopardy” and then Bill will end up dropping out anyway. Can’t have the show end at 9:45. Heh. :-)

Anyway, here are my estimates of the scores for week 3:

Table 3

That’s lots of ties, leaving Bill all alone at the bottom. Which, sad to say, is how it should be. If those numbers are close, here are the votes required for each of the bottom 4.

Table 4

As you can see, Bill would need 28k votes per million votes cast to get past Valerie. I don’t really see that happening. BUT, can he muster the 32k votes per million votes cast to get past either Snookie or Bill E? Possibly. Maybe. I’m thinking maybe not – both seem popular (anecdotally). But is there a shocker buried in there yet??  Christina and Elizabeth are still my potential candidates for a “shocking elimination” and Bill needs 48k and 52k votes per million votes cast, respectively. It can happen, it has happened before. Will it happen this week? I’m thinking no. I think that if they score similar to the above, one of the Bill’s will go home…probably Bill E if Bill N doesn’t drop out due to his knee.  The further along we get into the season, the better Bill E’s chances of being the one to spoil it for someone else – but I don’t think we’re there yet.

Keep in mind that if a miracle happens and Bill Nye manages a higher score – say a 17 – then that changes things dramatically. He suddenly only needs 12k to get past either Bill E. or Snookie, and only 28k to get past Leah/Brant/Jack. I think that dramatically increases the odds of Bill E or a shocker. Probably Bill E, as he’s lacking a bit in fanbase. For now. :-)

We’ll find out in a few days. :-D