DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Weeks 1 thru 4 Scorecard
So I’ve been asked a few times if I would do a scorecard of my predictions up to this point since about a third of the season has gone by. I figured: “Why not?” It would be interesting to see just how off the calculated predictions are.
To get started if you noticed there are the initials “P – A – D” this is simply: “Predicted – Actual – Difference”
– Predicted: this is the original calculated predicted scores
– Actual: this is the score that the celeb/pro pairing actually received on the show
– Difference: is the point difference between the predicted and actual scores
So it would appear that on average the calculated predicted scores was off by 3 points. That’s a massive point spread. Once in a while it would be spot on: Martina/Tony and Gavin/Karina. Or it would have come close: Melissa/Maksim and Maria/Derek. While the largest point spread seems to come from Jaleel/Kym, Gladys/Tristan and Katherine/Mark.
At first glance there doesn’t seem to be any real correlation between the point difference and the couples’ running order. Except the largest point spreads have all occurred to the three couples that danced towards the end of the show (Katherine, Gladys and Jaleel)… interesting…
The average point difference between the predicted and actual scores have decreased to 2.25 points in Week 2. Unfortunately there doesn’t seem to be much of a (blatant) correlation between the differences of scores and the running order.
The only commonality that I see if that Katherine/Mark once again have one of the largest score difference.
If we were to look at the average point differences between Week 1 and Week 2 for each of the celebs:
– Gavin/Karina: 0 & 0 = 0
– Donald/Driver: 3 & 2 = 2.5
– Roshon/Chelsie: 3 & 4 = 3.5
– Melissa/Maks: 1 & 1 = 1
– Katherine/Mark: 5 & 5 = 5
– Gladys/Tristan: 6 & 2 = 4
– William/Cheryl: 4 & 2 = 3
– Maria/Derek: 1 & 3 = 2
– Martina/Tony: 0 & 3 = 1.5
– Sherri/Val: 4 & 3 = 3.5
– Jack/Anna: 4 & 1 = 2.5
– Jaleel/Kym: 6 & 1 = 3.5
The largest point difference occurs for Katherine/Mark and Gladys/Tristan while Gavin/Karina and Melissa/Maks has had almost no major point difference. One thing I noticed is that the couple that DID get eliminated: Martina/Tony had a score difference average of 1.5 points between Week 1 and Week 2.
So how does this all look at Week 3?
Wow, none of the predicted scores were right in any capacity, with the average point spread of 4. The closest point difference would be Gavin/Karina, Gladys/Tristan, Sherri/Val and Jaleel/Kym all with a point difference of 2 points.
On the other end of the spectrum there is the insane point difference of
– William/Cheryl: 9 points
Followed by:
– Jack/Anna: 7 points
– Katherine/Mark: 6 points
– Donald/Peta: 5 points
Granted with Week 3 being the most memorable year, somehow it kind of makes sense that the celebs would give it their all to the dances that mean the most to them emotionally. Unfortunately it seems to skew the points values too.
And in a case of fortunes reversed, Jack Wagner that had a large point difference in Week 3 was the one that got eliminated in the end as opposed to someone with a smaller point spread as was the case in Week 2.
Since Week 4 was also a “themed week”, did that have any affect on the scores?
And we’re back to a 2 point score difference spread with some scores being close/spot on versus scores that were way off. For three weeks Katherine/Mark was getting the largest score difference (5 – 5 – 6) and now they have virtually none.
So far Gavin seems the most steady to history with another zero (0) point difference week.
There also seems to be a shift happening with the largest point difference:
– Roshon/Chelsie: 5 points
– Donald/Peta: 4 points
And remember the elimination predictions before the season started?
So far nothing has gone totally as planned… however the ones that have been eliminated from the show thus far were already in the bottom four places:
– Martina/Tony: predicted to be 10th
– Jack/Anna: predicted to be 9th
– Sherri/Val: predicted to be 12th
I would laugh if Donald/Peta ends up leaving in Week 5… because even though the predictions won’t be exact, they would be close.
So there you have it, a little bit of a comparison of what has been going on behind the scenes, what do you think? Would you want to see a visual graph of each pairing as they leave to see how they progressed? Let me know what you want to see in relation to these predicted scores vs actual.
If it is not too much work I would love to see these each week.
Thank you. It will be interesting to see with William does end up in 3rd and Roshon in 4th given that he was in the bottom 2 this week.
I love how unpredictable this season is truning out to be 🙂 Its a good change from the predictability of other reality shows. I jsut really hope that Roshon being in the bottom two was a one time thing. Hopefully the next four to go (in no particular order) are Gladys, Melissa, Jaleel, and William) then we have a really tight competition.
Also, someone told me that dances were revealed for next week: (Gavin has samba, donald has argentine tango, roshon and melissa have salsa, katehrine has aregentine tango, gladys has samba, william ahs an argentien tango, maria has a salsa, and jaleel has samba). he said he saw it on the red carept videos he saw online. Personally, I feel like one more arentine tango would have worked instead of so many salsas though.)
Fascinating Marianya and you didn’t do bad imo…especially for how close the competition is this season!!
And yes, I’d love to see a visual graph of each pairing as they leave to see how they progressed?
Vin, we posted a media post with the On The Red Carpet videos and dances for next week. Did you see it?
Wow, what a great post; love all of your posts, Marianya.
Would love to see anything you can find time to post.
This season it very interesting, a lot more fun to watch when things are so unpredictable.
In the last part, what does ‘normalised’ mean?
@Sarah – “normalized” is the placement in a 10-point scale. I needed to do that since not all seasons are the same size. So I just adjusted all seasons into a 10-point scale and used that as a basis for calculation.
This season is by far the most exciting, but I am a Willaim and Katherine fan. I think they both are great and will go far. But William you need to connect with Cheryl just like all the other dancers do. Forget the people around you, if you were able to do steamy love scenes as an actor I’m sure giving yourself to your dance partner and focusing on her will come easy.
William if your dancing a tango next week remember how passionate karinas was. Get lost in your tango and blow us away. Can’t wait to see it.
@Voguerista: I didn’t see that actually. gotta go check that out. Thanks 🙂 I love the red carpet stuff (especially when hthe couples are all excited and happy about there scores 🙂 )
I have a feeling that Marianya’s past season predictions were a lot closer – the overscoring has been rampant this season. I’ll be curious to see how it tightens up as we go through this season.
Wow, what a year with DWTS. Just amazing most everyone is happy which is great.Hoping Melissa is coming back we need her for Maks.So, sorry Sherri went home. She had the personality of a dancer. I would know,I was a dancer too.I would love to compete on DWTS.I HOPE YOU READ THIS! I would love one more time in my life to dance. With all the bells and whistles. I still dance a bit in classes like tap, ballet and a little jazz.I can still Hoof it! Why can’t you take a normal everyday person for once and see what happens on DWTS like me I’m 50ish.I sure would like a try on DWTS.If not me try my daughter she has some dance experience Gregg Russell who choreography for her and lived across the street from us in little Ohio.I have been out to LA. many, many,many ,times for my daughter with dance.We’ve also been in London for dance.You all work so hard and It is truly a full time job.My daughter says she gave up H .S. for the love of dance. Went to College dance taught dance lessons graduated in four years. Left LA. Went to N.C. and is living there with her husband and daughter.Please think about an ordinary person like myself or daughter.She ‘s an accountant and both her and I would love to do DWTS. Please think about a everyday person. Take her before me even though It would kill me not to be picked.PLEASE TAKE A REGULAR PERSON FOR ONCE ON DWTS. Good Luck to everyone. I hope you will read my comments.I know I’m just the little person trying to get a regular person like me on DWTS.Thank you for your time reading this and hoping you’ll pick me or my daughter for DWTS.LOVE YOU ALL AND THANKS FOR YOUR COMMITMENT TO DANCE WHICH IS ONE OF THE HARDEST JOBS THERE IS. YOUR BODY REMINDS YOU EVERDAY OF THE COMMITMENT YOU MAKE!!!!
I saved this one for last this morning, because numbers give me a headache. But, as I read these analysis posts, I’m beginning to understand better. Marianya and Princess Heidi are to be commended for putting so much effort out into these comparison and theoretical sheets for us. And for making it possible for mathematical illiterates like me to grasp it. It will interesting to see how the new dance off figures into these equations.
Ladies and Gents, so much work in number crunching = very interesting.
uh…….do people know this is a bloggy-blog and not a platform for getting on the show? 🙂
please don’t misinterpret – not meant as snarky mean, just sayin.
I really hope Gavin improves w his scores. Don;t get me wrong, he isn’t great but I always think he deserves 24 each week just based on entertainment and just pure drive to do good.
Also, I don;t know why I thought of this the other day but wouldn’t it be cool to see the male pros dance with the male contestants at one point and the same fro the female pros and contestants. They are all so godo this season and it would really show how good they are this season.
@vin – they did… back in Season 3 for a results show. Steve Guttenburg’s partner Anna Trebunskaya was ill for a fair amount of the week so her husband stepped him to help teach Steve the Tango. Anna got better in time for Monday’s live taping, but for the results show TPTB had Steve and Jonathan dance together.
I am definately going to watch that!
Marianya – Thank you for posting that! 😀 I’d forgotten how much it makes me laugh!!!!
A hilarious performance! lol Had to tweet it!
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