Well, another season, another mis-placed Maks blow up. Oy veh.  It’s a shame – he had me until the sky box. Where he lost me. And then he apparently unfollows Derek because Derek speaks his mind for a change?? Hypocrisy, thy name is Maks. Dude, if you want the freedom to speak your mind, you have to give the same freedom to everyone else.  I find it most shocking of all that he doesn’t SEE all this. Any thinking being would say, well, he’s free to air his opinions, good or bad.  And that’s true. But where does it say that he gets that freedom, yet Derek (or Len, or Carrie Ann or Karina or Bruno) doesn’t?  And, if you’re going to air your opinions loudly on TV, you have to take the responses you get, good and bad. We all do. Instead, he un-follows Derek and his fans lambaste Derek on twitter – um, who was the ass on TV again?? Hint: it wasn’t Derek. Or Karina. Or JR. Or Nancy – all of whom expressed opinions similar to Derek’s, or at least displeasure.

Were the judges badly behaved? Bruno was, in his comments to Chaz, whose feelings I think were terribly hurt. It’s a cumulative effect – there’s only so long you can take those comments. I don’t think Len deserved what he got. We’ve all discussed how the judges can suck – but we’ve known this for YEARS.  For the love of god, this isn’t new and the complainers have certainly benefited from them being wacky in the past – and will in the future, most likely. There is a lot to be said for professionalism…and as Maks himself said, he’s been on the show long enough to know how this game works. Or he should.

Unfortunately, Maks will likely come out the winner in all this. Gain followers through controversy, gain sympathy votes, gain another week – maybe even gain a role in Dirty Dancing for being a complete ass, since the director was in the audience. Mission accomplished?? We’ll see.

As for the rest of the cast? Well, the cynical side of me wonders if Maks does this with half a mind to getting attention for him and Hope because the rest of them seem to be an afterthought, with the exception of Derek and his brouhaha. Have a bad dance and need votes?? Instigate massive, attention getting fight, thus getting your fans all riled up on your behalf.

Seriously  – conspiracy theories generally don’t fly with me. Occam’s Razor – the simplest explanation is likely the correct one (in a nutshell).  He was probably just having a blow after bottling it in for years (um, theoretically?).  :-)  Just a momentary flight of fancy on my part.  I do think that Evaine and her sparkle/glitter crew need to give Maks a twirl and a glitter shower. I think she’s up for the task.

Apart from the blow out, Hope certainly got the personality of the dance right – and I actually liked her more last night than I have before. But the girl is not a great dancer, no matter what Maks is trying to sell. I don’t think the judges were that far off the mark, personally.

Nancy!! Hurray for Nancy!! Don’t think she deserved a 9, but Len balanced it out. Of course, that damn song is stuck in my head forever now.  And I’m whistling a lot. Hurray for Tristan too – that was some nice, bright, choreography. I think they both had a breakthrough.

Ricki and JR – both fantastic dances. My only concern is the same as it always is – the top of the leaderboard, combined with a massive fight between another couple and the judges, can lead to a lack of votes for other dancers – just through sheer neglect. I don’t think either of them will be in trouble, but it could spell trouble for someone like David or Nancy.

David, Rob and Chaz – I’ll be honest and say that I don’t remember much about their dances. Is the dance the problem or everything that followed? Hard to say.  Oh, but go back and watch over Tom’s shoulder in the third tier of seats – before Chaz dances. Hilarious. Anyway, enough blather.

Let’s look at the numbers.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

I think it’s safe to say that JR and Ricki are safe. Even the frightening prospect of being neglected in the face of controversy is tempered by the seriously HUGE number of votes that everyone else would have to get for one of them to go home.  But who’s really in danger??  Lord, if I only knew. That blow up throws everything into disarray. You can’t gauge how the average viewer is going to view that. Then you have Derek fans pissed off, Maks fans pissed off, Chaz fans pissed off, Karina, JR and Nancy all on the same page as Derek, Chaz has hurt feelings….how does all this play into that relatively tight packed group below Ricki and JR?

Crap shoot.

Anyway, let’s start with the low man on the totem pole, Chaz. What does he need to do to stick around for another week??  He needs ONE of the following things:

-          He needs 6,024 more votes per million votes cast than Hope, OR;

-          He needs 18,100 more votes per million votes cast than Rob, OR;

-          He needs 24,100 more votes per million votes cast than David, OR;

-          He needs 30,150 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, OR;

-          He needs 60,240 more votes per million votes cast than either JR or Ricki.

So, what do you wager the size of Chaz’s fanbase is??  If he stays over Hope, then we still have no clear idea. Six thousand votes isn’t all that much. However, if either David or Nancy go home, you’ll have your answer – it’s serious.  Rob is in the middle – not a huge number, but not small either.  Let’s pretend that Chaz beats Hope. What does Hope then need to stick around?? She needs ONE of the following:

-          She needs 12,050 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Rob, OR;

-          She needs 18,075 more votes per million votes cast to stay over David, OR;

-          She needs 24,100 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Nancy, OR;

-          She needs 54,220 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Ricki OR JR.

Hmmm…those are slightly larger numbers. No idea. Let’s carry this through a bit farther and see how it shakes out. If Chaz got a lot of votes and Hope got a lot of votes, Rob is next in line. What does he need in order to stay another week (besides keeping the harpies at home)?  He needs ONE of the following:

-          Either Chaz or Hope doesn’t get the votes to pass him, OR;

-          Rob gets 6,025 more votes per million votes cast than David, OR;

-          Rob gets 12,050 more vote per million votes cast than Nancy, OR;

-          Rob gets 42,250 more votes per million votes cast than either JR or Ricki.

Okay, so based on the people we discuss above I have to say that I think Nancy is safe. I’ll be shocked if I’m wrong on this one, but look at the votes the people below her have to get for her to go home. Chaz needs more than 30k, Hope needs more than 24k and Rob would need more than 12K. Then there’s  David, he needs more too. I think Nancy’s dance was fun – and I’ll admit that I’m biased toward anything including Spamalot – and she and Tristan both had a breakthrough of sorts. My gut says she’s safe along with Ricki and JR.

Anyway, back to David.  If Chaz, Hope and Rob all get the votes they need, David goes home unless he gets ONE of the following:

-          David gets 6,025 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy, OR;

-          David gets 36,200 more votes per million votes cast than either Ricki OR JR.

He’s pretty close to Nancy, but I’m not sure I see that happening. This is the guy that was in a real bottom two at one point and there are plenty of people still annoyed with him. But do I think he’ll go home?? Not really.

I think at the end of the day it’s between Hope and Chaz, with Rob a possible casualty due to the nasty air around Chaz and Hope. Although that could apply to any of them, really. Whenever the judges hurt someone’s feelings or get in a fight with a couple, people have a tendency to rally around that person, whether it was warranted or not.  That puts Rob, David and Nancy in some danger. Or, does the sympathy vote get split between Chaz and Hope??

My gut instinct is that Chaz gets the paltry 6k that he needs to stay over Hope and that Hope goes home, but if I’m being perfectly honest, only JR or Ricki leaving would surprise me at this point.