DWTS Season 20, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Here we are, week 4 going into week 5 and the scoring wasn’t too horrendous. There was one glaring error in what was otherwise a relatively decent scoring/ranking by the judges and that was Willow’s 39. Now, don’t get me wrong. I like Willow. I liked the dance. My comments on the dance weren’t on the dance quality but the fact that I had hard time following it with all the other dancers involved.  In terms of dance quality, I defy anyone to convince me (won’t happen) that Willow’s dance was 3 points better than that amazing AT from Nastia or 4 points better than Rumer’s Waltz-ish dance. Was Willow on par with Nastia and Rumer?? Sure, I would buy that. She did a damn good job, in spite of my problems with the production. But 3 or 4 points *better*??  Um, no. Especially when you consider that there are fewer strict rules in a contemporary routine, which means it’s marginally easier to do.  Even if you claim that “Nastia is boring” or “Rumer is one note” that still doesn’t equate to 3 or 4 points difference. Or it shouldn’t.

So, why a 39? Was it that much more spectacular than that Argentine Tango? No, even Mark said it should be straight 10’s and Tony also said there should have been more 10s.  Even if they were just looking for a new leader…3 points? So what is their goal? Protecting Willow? These are the questions I ask myself when looking at the leader board. Since “protection” is a stunt they’ve pulled numerous times before, it begs the question.  And when you see the point spread, you will wonder too. Anyway, let’s look at all the scores:

DWTS 20 Wk 4 Table 1

Much like last week, we have a guy on the lower end of the board (Chris) with icons above him (Suzanne and Patti) and we have to ask ourselves – how powerful are the icons?? How powerful is Bachelor Nation?? Oy veh.  How much trouble is Chris in?

DWTS 20 Wk 4 Table 2

As you can see from above, Chris needs to beat ONE of those vote margins to be safe. He only needs less than 3,100 more votes per million votes cast to stay over Suzanne – that’s a tiny, tiny number.  He needs less than 9,300 to stay over Patti or about 15.4k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Noah. I think the only one he has a chance of beating is Suzanne, at this point. For the sake of argument, let’s say he beats Suzanne in the voting by the required margin. What does Suzanne have to do to stay?

DWTS 20 Wk 4 Table 3

I really doubt she’s beating anyone above her with those vote totals. But you see why I wonder about Willow’s score? Just look at the margins between Chris and Willow and Suzanne and Willow. And the margin between Patti and Willow is nothing to sneeze at. What if Willow was down with Nastia and/or Rumer? With her supposedly very young fanbase (and possibly smaller fanbase), she’s probably in a far worse position than Bethany was last season.  Combine that with them putting her in jeopardy this past week and you have to wonder.  Giving her first place on the leader board does a couple things – it insulates her a good bit from a shocking elimination, and it convinces the sheeple that she’s a contender (and maybe she is, in terms of dance). As much as people root for underdogs, they also like to vote for winners.  But this is all speculation on my part. We won’t know what the deal was until or if she is eliminated and maybe not until the season is well over.  Combine jeopardy with first place and she may well be safe for a couple weeks. As long as she keeps her dance at a high level.

Anyway, I digress. I think, looking at those margins, most reasonable people will agree that Willow, Nastia, Rumer, Riker and Noah are going nowhere. Robert probably isn’t either, but he’s one guy I really like but have no idea how he’s playing to the larger audience. I would bet that Patti might beat him. How is Patti doing, anyway?

DWTS 20 Wk 4 Table 4

Now, Patti could be beating Robert and/or Riker, but I don’t think she’s beating Noah or Rumer – and she doesn’t have to, because I can’t believe that Chris is beating the margin to pass her. And I don’t think that Suzanne beats the margin to pass Patti. So, I think Patti is also safe.

That leave us with Robert. Is he in any danger at all? Well, I tend to doubt it, but if there is a “shocking elimination” this week, I’m leaning toward Robert (longshot – Riker). I don’t think there will be one, but if it comes, it might be at this level.  What are Robert’s margins?

DWTS 20 Wk 4 Table 5

 

Now, in plain terms, what has to happen for Robert to be eliminated (since they are tied, the same applies to Riker) – ALL of the following has to happen:

  • Chris would have to get 21.6k more votes per million votes cast than Robert(Riker), AND;
  • Suzanne would have to get 18.5k more votes per million votes cast than Robert(Riker), AND;
  • Patti would have to get 12.4k more votes per million votes cast than Robert(Riker), AND;
  • Noah would have to get 6.2k more votes per million votes cast than Robert(Riker), AND;
  • Robert can’t beat the spread of any of the people shown in Table 5.

Now, maybe Suzanne, Patti and Noah can beat those numbers (doubt it on Suzanne’s part, but you never know), and I doubt that Robert is beating the spread of those people above him on the leader board – but I don’t see any way that Chris is getting the required votes to beat Robert or Riker. So, for that reason, I think that Robert is safe. As is Riker, like I said above.

That brings me back to Chris and Suzanne. I’m going to guess that Chris is going home, mainly because I don’t think that Chris can beat Suzanne. If it’s not Chris, then I think it will be Suzanne. Third choice is Robert, based on how the leader board is stacked, but I don’t really think Robert is in any danger.  Suzanne just has to get too many votes.

So, Chris is my guess. At some point I’m going to be shocked by something, but I don’t think we’re there just yet.

In case anyone was wondering, I’m currently 2 for 3. Not bad at all.  And the one I missed was Redfoo, but he was my second choice. I expect for my record to get much worse as we go along.