DWTS Season 21, Week SEVEN – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, sh*t’s about to get REAL. And figuring out who’s going home this week is not easy, between the close scores and the stoopid immunity stuff.

Speaking of immunity, watch out for Bindi and Nick. If one of them gets a 28 or 29 and they dance early in the show, someone else is most likely getting immunity. It’ll likely be REAL fishy and I’d almost put money on it happening – I’m thinking either Tamar or Alexa.   I also expect the producers to try real hard to get Carlos vs. Alexa and Derek vs. Val. Yes, I used the pro names for a REASON. Derek don’t play, but Val makes it very easy for them.

I *think* from the press release the immunity is for Week 9, but it’s so poorly written that I can’t be sure.  Of course, the natural question is – what if the person winning immunity is the person who has already been determined to have the lowest combined score and who should be going home Monday night?  Well, that’s a question I don’t know the answer to and I’m afraid it will only piss me off. 🙂  After Monday is over, if that is a possibility, I’ll do a follow up to this post. 

Anyway, forgetting immunity for a while, who is going to go home? Here’s the leaderboard right now:

Yeah, this is a tight one. Only five points separating Bindi at the top and Alek at the bottom. Which means anyone could go – except possibly Bindi and Nick. I think everyone else is fair game.

But Alek is our low man on the totem pole. And I think he’s going to survive, don’t you? I mean, look at how few votes he needs to get past Tamar, Alexa and Carlos/Andy.

My gut is telling me he’s safe. Now, if the margins were more…normal…he might be in serious trouble, what with the package and all. But it was only one bad package and he’s still our military hero and that’s usually good for at least the semi-finals. I don’t know that he’ll last that long, since the judges are very determined to score him low. Are these scores inappropriate? Not really, IMO, but hey – people love him. They will likely vote to keep him around one more week. I will also say, at the risk of being politically incorrect, Alek doesn’t wear his military service as a physical reminder in the way that JR and Noah did, so he might not last as long. All I mean by that is that you could NEVER forget what JR and Noah both contributed to our country. It was always visible. That is not the case with Alek, and people (the sheeple) aren’t being reminded of it every week by the producers AND they gave him a crappy edit (I would say package, but from what I’ve seen it’s NOT crappy 😉 ) on top of that. So…people forget. We’ll see. But I’m thinking he’s got one more week in him.

That brings us to Tamar and Nick. Hmmmm…like I said, I don’t think Nick is going anywhere but Tamar could be in trouble. Monday night could be very interesting.

Holy moley, those are SMALL numbers. Crikey!! 😉 Now, Alexa has really, really grown on me the last couple weeks. Tamar, not so much. But dang. Okay, honestly, I could see Tamar, Alexa, Carlos or Andy going home – it could be any of them in my opinion so I’m really guessing this week. Time for a bit of talking it out. 🙂 For that we will need the rest of the numbers…

Okay, so, Tamar needs less than 2,300 votes per million to get past Alexa. Is she doing it? She needs less than 4,600 more than either Andy or Carlos to get past them. I don’t think she’s touching Bindi (and I’m sure Nick is getting the ONE more vote than her that he needs) so we’ll leave her out of this. I tend to think that if she’s beating any of them, she’s beating Andy. Andy has Allison who has a built-in fanbase from SYTYCD, but I don’t know it’s as large or as passionate as either Val’s or Mark’s fanbases, not to mention Tamar and Alexa.

If Tamar is beating Andy and Alexa, that leaves us with Andy, Alexa and Carlos. I feel somewhat confident that Carlos is getting the one point more than Andy, which would make Carlos safe – boy bander beats new guy on the music scene. I think. 🙂 As you can see, Alexa needs less than 2,300 votes per million to beat Andy. That’s nothing.

Ultimately, when the numbers are this small, I have to make a wild assed guess. And, after thinking about it (a lot) and juggling Alek, Tamar, Alexa, Carlos and Andy around in my head (what else can you do when it’s so close it’s probably within the margin of error?), I keep thinking it’s going to come down to Tamar, Alexa and Andy. One of those three is going to go home.

My gut is saying Andy. If not Andy, then Alexa. But I’m almost certain to be wrong, with number like this.

Well, what do you think?