Dancing with the Stars Season 22, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers
Well, this is going to be a tough one, folks, cuz all the low hanging fruit is gone. And double eliminations are doubly difficult. Any number of people could be on the chopping block.
Those who don’t have to worry this week are likely Nyle and Wanya. And I guess Antonio, as much as it pains me to say so. Everyone else? Well, this will be the week where we find out (partially) who isn’t getting the votes. Here are the scores and percentages:
I’ve seen people on twitter using the typical hyperbole and they really don’t know what they’re talking about. “Ooooo…the scores are so tight it could be anyone.” Well, that’s not really true. “We will probably get a shocking elimination.” Yeah, that’s ONLY true if you’re a neophyte who has never seen this show before and you just came out of your cave in a loincloth. The ONLY truly shocking elimination this coming Monday would be either Wanya or Nyle. No one else really qualifies…not even Antonio, really. I would be somewhat shocked, I guess, just because of his fanbase, but really shocked? Nah. It’s a double elimination and he’s widely been rumored to be a d*ck, so there you go. Don’t think we’ll get that lucky though. 🙂
So why is the “It could be anyone” crowd wrong? Well, see below.
See, Kim, Von and Ginger would ALL have to get more than 22k more votes per million votes cast EACH than Wanya in order for him to be eliminated. Does anyone really see that happening? I don’t. Not to mention that Jodie and Nyle would both have to get a ton of votes to get past him. Everyone in the cast would have to be covering a margin of some sort or another to beat him. I don’t see that happening. Hence, not “anyone” can be eliminated. 🙂
It’s when you move beyond Wanya that it starts to get a bit tricky. I’m going to say that Nyle is still safe, despite the hatchet job they did on him this past week. If he was in any danger of leaving, they probably wouldn’t have done the hatchet job to begin with.
Since they acted like rainbows shot out of Antonio’s ass, I’m also going to say he’s safe – well, thanks to that and Steeler Nation, whose members seem to feel that they must win everything, deserving or not. So, if we eliminate Wanya, Nyle and Antonio from consideration, that leaves us with Paige, Jodie, Kim, Ginger and Von.
Anything strike you about this group of remaining celebs? Well, sans Von they are all female. Want to bet that at the end of the team dances they tell the men “You’re all SAFE!!!” I would almost put money on it. I’m trying to find a reason why they wanted to do Men versus Women – this is one of my reasons. That, and a little bit of good ole fashioned DRAMA when you put all the men in one room and all the women in another.
Anyway, as you can see from Table 2, four of the five possible eliminees are scrunched around the bottom of the leaderboard. Essentially, Kim, Von and Ginger all need TWO of the following things to be safe on Monday night, thanks to the double elimination:
- They need to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than TWO of the others in their trio, OR;
- They need to get about 4,410 more votes per million votes cast than either Jodie or Nyle, OR;
- They need to get 13,220 more votes per million votes cast than Antonio, OR;
- They need to get 17,622 more votes per million votes cast than Paige.
- Some combination of the above that leads to two people being below them in total score.
Now you see why Paige got a ten that some feel was premature. Girlfriend is an excellent dancer, but that wasn’t quite a ten. So. I’ve already said that I think Antonio is safe. And I don’t THINK that Paige is going anywhere. I’m nervous, but I don’t think it’s her time yet. That’s still a good number of votes and I wager that one of them isn’t making the cut. The question is, are TWO of them not making the cut? I’m going to guess that she’s still safe. I’ll be extremely bummed to be wrong.
We’ll come back to Paige in a minute. Back to Kim, Von and Ginger. Personally, I think that Von has got to be getting more votes than either Kim or Ginger based on his football fanbase, but it’s really hard to say. He was also placed in jeopardy last week. Jodie has been in jeopardy TWICE and Paige once. So, Von might be getting the votes to get past both Kim and Ginger. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s got the one vote over either of them. I would also bet that Von is doing better than Jodie – but damn. But look at it this way, Von only needs a vote more than both Kim and Ginger and only 4.4k more than Jodie. I’m willing to bet that at least two of those are true, which would make him safe.
So, if I’m right about Von for one more week, that leaves us with Kim, Jodie and Ginger. And really, these are the three that aren’t really making an impact, that are riding the middle of the pack and who are only average dancers. In Kim’s case, it’s not that she’s not nice, fun, lovely and all that – but it doesn’t really seem to be making a dent. Jodie? Same thing. As for Ginger…well, she has a daily pimping platform in GMA and they’ve been making the most of it. But it’s SO transparent!
It comes down to this: in order to be SAFE, there has to be TWO people with a combined total lower than you. I think that Von is doing better than Ginger, Jodie and Kim, so he’s safe. I’m inclined to think that Ginger’s GMA connection is going to push her past Jodie by the required 4.4k more votes per million votes cast.
And that leaves us with Kim and Jodie. But what about Paige? I said we’d come back to her. And I already implied I thought she would be safe this week. ALL of the following things would have to happen in order for her to be eliminated:
- Kim, Ginger and Von would ALL have to get 17.7k more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Jodie AND Nyle would both have to get 13.3k more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Antonio would have to get 4.4k more vote per million votes cast than her.
Now, that’s a good number of votes. We’ve seen it happen before, with Audrina Patridge and those numbers were far larger. But my sense is that none of the other ladies are beating that spread.
I’ve already discussed Kim and Ginger, along with Von…but why do I think Jodie over Ginger? I already mentioned GMA being one of the deciding factors, but also there is the pro factor. I don’t think Val is any better a pro than either Keo or Sasha, but he does have a more established fan base. I suspect that Mark is getting the lion’s share of the Derek vote. So Ginger has GMA and Val, while Jodie and Kim have their own fanbases. Honestly, it could go any number of ways. For Jodie to be eliminated, ALL of the following things have to happen:
- Two or more of Kim, Ginger and Von get 4.4k more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Nyle gets ONE more vote per million votes cast than her, AND:
- Jodie DOESN’T get 8.8k more votes per million votes cast than Antonio, AND;
- Jodie doesn’t get 13.3k more votes per million votes cast than Paige, AND;
- Jodie doesn’t get 17.7k more votes per million votes cast than Wanya.
You might be inclined to think that Kim is getting the votes to get past Jodie. Doesn’t matter, she has to get past TWO people to be safe. Since I don’t think Kim is getting past both Ginger and Von AND Jodie, I think she will be eliminated.
I could go around and around on this all day long, but ultimately I think it comes down to Jodie, Kim and Ginger, with Jodie and Kim being eliminated.
If the Berg doesn’t call all the men safe, then I’ll start to think that it’s Kim and Von going home. But my final guess is Jodie and Kim. With so many people bunched at the bottom, it’s a very tough call and my odds of being wrong are way high this week, besides my good record so far this season. Odds are good that I’ll be writing an elimination post mortem early next week. 🙂
What do you all think?
Can we just toss out Antonio instead? I’m sick of him! That being said, the only definite person, for me, who’s getting eliminated is Kim. The 2nd person is a bit harder. I hope it’s not Jodie but rather Ginger. I’m sick of her too (and her hubby). I’ve been voting pretty hard to have Jodie stick around a bit more. Fingers crossed…
I give Jodie the edge over Ginger this week because she was injured and her dance was significantly better than Ginger’s. So my guess is that Ginger and Kim will be eliminated.
Sadly I agree with you, Kim and Jodie. I wanted Sasha to get to go farther. And I’m kind of a Keo supporter now after him being so harshly trashed by an ass. And Kim and Jodie are both working hard and imo, there for the right reasons.
I’m with Marin.. I feel like Jodie made a bigger impact this week with her Contemporary and her injury might get her some sympathy votes.
I’m not sure Ginger is getting much love from the audience as Jodie is.. Seems to me like Ginger’s dancing isn’t impressing a lot of people (just based on some tweets, facebook posts and YouTube comments..) but then like PH mentions, Ginger has Val whose fanbase is bigger than Keo’s so that could work in Ginger’s favor.
My final guess is Kim and Ginger going home but Jodie instead of Ginger is for sure my second guess.
I’m also keeping every limb crossed that Paige managed to get plenty of votes after being put in Jeopardy. I REALLY want her in the finals but with all the “Antonio” mania, I’m thinking they’re reserving the third spot for him.. Barf.
I’m going with Von and Kim, and maybe Ginger actually like people are usually are blind to the pimping when it comes to their favorites but just from reading all the fb comments people are really noticing her excessive pimping. But then again, if she was on the verge on elimination we would have seen some major over scoring last week but for once she got a score she deserved while Paige got a 10 (which I think she deserved) but she IMO has been underscored alot this season so why now? Anyways love the number breakdown interesting how it all plays out and I agree with you I think the producers are expecting two from the same gender to be out and yes the female fan bases seem more likely!
So you think that Nyle’s misunderstood comment won’t affect him this week?
I knew what he meant, but SM comments reveal others think differently
Heidi, once again…so excellent. You make me think as always! I have a feeling I’m going to cry with the double eliminations coming up as I’m loving them all in different ways …including Antonio. As jerky as he’s been at times, I think he’s on a journey and learning a lot personally from doing DWTS. It’s been good for him(which I hope he admits to someday). Anyway, this is going to be hard, but, I’m with you again. I think it’s Kim and Jody to go too.
My thoughts are basically the same as yours, Heidi, but its always fascinating to read the numbers behind the predictions.
I honestly would have pegged Von for elimination, but I think being put in Jeopardy might have helped him squeak by. I hope so, because I’m really starting to like him. As far as Paige is concerned, her jeopardy concerned me, and I ended up sending her all my votes instead of splitting between her and Wanya like I usually do. I’m wondering if others did the same thing.
I’m actually leaning towards a Kim/ Ginger elimination, although your reasoning makes more sense than my gut feeling. I think if Ginger was with most other pros she would be gone, but I do feel like she has made a lot less impact than Jodie in the past couple weeks. I’m hoping that Kim can somehow make it through, but I have little hope of that. In my ideal world Antonio and Ginger would be gone, but I 100% agree that it will be some combination of Kim/Ginger/Jodie.
Social media isn’t everything. Squeaky wheels and all that. We’ll have to wait and see, but I think he has enough going for him that it won’t hurt him this week. If it happens again, or if he has a really bad dance, he could go. I do think it could prevent him from winning, for sure.
I would not be AT ALL surprised to be wrong and see him go home this week – I just think that being forgettable is a bigger problem and that the three women are in a race to the bottom.
This is a tough one. Gut hunch that Ginger could be someone who slipped through the cracks in a double-elimination. Normally the Val-Maks fans should be able to get Val’s partners through the earlier weeks, plus Ginger’s got the GMA support. But Ginger’s dance wasn’t one of her better performances at a time when giving off vibes that she may have bitten off more than she can chew in trying to do cross country travel every week so soon after having a baby. She even took time off from work to regroup, and that could have viewers thinking she needs rest more than she needs a mirror ball trophy.
So I’ll go with Ginger for one of the eliminations.
I’m hoping the other isn’t Jodie or Kim because I’ve been giving votes to both, along with Wanya and some weeks Nyle.
The football fan vote has been enough to support all three football players through the first month, so no reason to think it couldn’t support two. But Von and Witney aren’t one of the better matched couples, so I’m going to guess (okay, and hope) that Jodie and Kim did both manage to meet one of the criteria that would allow them to stay ahead of Von.
Don’t get me wrong, ya’ll – I’m FAR less sure this week than I have been in the past. It certainly COULD be Ginger – I would RATHER it be Ginger – but when looking at all the factors (and the pros are a big factor), I think Ginger has a slight edge. Hope I’m wrong. I would love for it to be Ginger/Antonio, but I KNOW I ain’t that lucky. 🙂
Thanks for another awesome Numbers post, Heidi. I love reading through your reasoning behind your predictions every week, even if I don’t always comment. I think you could be right about it being Kim/Jodie, although I’d much rather see Ginger (and Antonio) in there.
It’s a tough one but I am thinking it might be Ginger and Kim too. Jodie had a pretty good dance Ginger not so much. Ginger’s package showed her as being worn out whereas Jodie was seen as powering through her injuries. Then I have also seen a lot of negative comments about Ginger receiving so much publicity. Is all that enough to give her less votes? I don’t know but it seems possible.
I have a feeling that there may be some hurt over Monday’s eliminations! I’m with most everyone else, if I had anything to say about it, I’d love for Antonio and Ginger to go home, but I’ve never been known for being lucky?.
I had been splitting my votes between Wayna and Paige, but with her being in jeopardy, I threw them all to Paige; hopefully there were enough of us that did that, so that she will be safe! I’ll be shocked if Kim isnt eliminated, which is too bad since in any other season she probably would make it deeper in the competition and I love the relationship between she and Sasha! As to the other elimination, I keep waffling between Jodie, Ginger and Von.
I agree with you P.H. if nothing has been said about any elimination and the men dance first, my bet is that they are all told they are safe and that makes the women dance their team dance knowing two of them are going home! TPTB love nothing more than putting people under pressure and drama. Of course, when they decided to do the men versus women thing, they had no idea how the voting would play out from last week; if Von and Paige were truly the other bottom two did that change after being in jeopardy?
I sure wish the AB train would go off the rails, but I’m bracing myself for him making a pep talk on the importance of teamwork, so people will continue to think he’s all that and a aside of fries! UGH!
Thanks PH for the thorough analysis. I anxiously wait for this post evey week! My gut is telling me the same thing – Ginger will be safe 1 more week given the strength of Val’s fan base. If she wants to stay, next week’s dance will need to be very strong.
My feeling is Kim, who while sweet never broke out from the others, and either Jodie or Von.
I love Kim and Von… I hate to lose either one.
Since Antonio and Ginger are my least favorite I’m going to pick them for elimination. Wishful thinking.
I have the same wish as you Heidi for a Antonio/Ginger elimination! 😀
However, in reality I think of those two at least Antonio will be safe this week. Based on what I’ve seen I don’t think he picked up too many NEW voters but he probably convinced some who were thinking about switching allegiance to another contestant to stand by him and I think he’s had a lot of voters anyway so he should be fine this week.
A lot of people-and I mean CASUAL viewers-seem wise to the GMA propaganda machine for Ginger (and most of these same people did NOT see through the package edits this week). I don’t think it’s making as big an impact as possibly expected. If Val were not Ginger’s partner she’d probably be going home on Monday but since he is she has a decent chance of safety. However, it’s worth noting that I’ve seen a lot of “I love Val but I think Ginger is annoying so I’m not voting for her!” comments around, so maybe she isn’t getting as much support from the “Valenteam” as his partner normally would.
I think Kim will almost certainly be eliminated which makes me sad. 🙁 I say “almost” certainly because stranger things have happened (and I don’t like to make definite predictions in general). 😛 I hope she has a good week this week and TPTB wise up and keep Sasha as a pro this time now that we know he can dance fine with someone as tall as Paige (I think so anyway). 😛 Just my opinion though. 🙂
The other will probably come down to Jodie and Von, with an outside chance of Ginger. And while I suppose Jodie makes a bit more sense based on Heidi’s reasoning I’ve been kind of surprised how much of a non-impact Von seems to be having. I mean, he’s the Super-Bowl MVP and has had a lot of media coverage surrounding that and DWTS! I use Facebook to take the temperature of the general audience and hardly anyone talks about him. (Most of the discussion over there tends to surround Nyle, Jodie, and Ginger, and this week more people started talking about Paige.) Videos of a couple of his dances were posted on Facebook and the top comments on them had nothing to do with him. When Paige was announced in jeopardy this week people went nuts over there. The same thing happened both times Jodie was in that position. But Von? *crickets* No one seemed surprised, and I didn’t see any cries of “We have to rally behind Von and send him more votes!” like they did with the ladies. I guess we’re about to find out how telling (or not) the DWTS Facebook page really is.
Then there’s Jodie. Her being in jeopardy twice makes me wonder just how many votes she’s getting, so I think she could be leaving on Monday. She didn’t get a great running order position and wasn’t in jeopardy, which could lead to trouble this week. However, her dance seemed to have a bigger and more positive impact than the three below her, and her package was probably also more memorable than any of theirs. Plus I’ve seen a lot of support for her on Facebook, an almost surprisingly large amount. But maybe she’s the Hayes Grier of the season: lots of support on social media but not as many actual votes as some other couples. I’ll also throw it out there that she and Keo were on Ellen Monday (probably the best day for a DWTS couple to make an appearance on another show; might help said couple stick out in more people’s minds). I know Ginger and Val have been on a lot of shows in comparison and have no idea how big an impact that’s been having but I figured I’d mention it since I mentioned Von’s media coverage (he and Witney were also on the show a few weeks back).
It’ll probably be Kim leaving on Monday along with either Jodie or Von but no idea which one.
By a large degree, I’d prefer for Ginger and Antonio to leave. I do think Ginger is going home on Monday, despite Val’s fans. I don’t know a single person that likes their partnership, and I think because Val won relatively recently that his fans may be more lackadaisical. Combine that with Ginger being tired, a dance that wasn’t at all memorable, and even the general public catching onto the GMA pimpage – I think she’s actually the most likely to leave.
Antonio was literally resurrected by the edit and overly-glowing reviews last week because I am confident he was dead in the water before that. I think he bought himself another couple of weeks – but fingers crossed that he didn’t.
I’ve been fearing a Kim elimination for some time, and I think this is the week. The only thing that might change that is that she does have such a visible joy when she dances and in her partnership with Sasha. That stuff goes a long way – but will it be enough to save her? Probably not, but I’m hoping for a long shot.
I think Jodie and Keo did a solid enough performance – and because their fans are on high alert – that they will be okay. I’d prefer for Jodie to leave over Kim, but not confident that would be the case so I’ll call her safe.
I think without that jeopardy last week, Von would have been in big trouble. Although I personally like him a lot and thought his dance was cute – I think their performance might have been a very overlooked one. If the Broncos fans aren’t voting in full force, he’s my other choice for elimination.
Nyle, Wanya, and even Paige are safe. So that leaves me with Ginger leaving as the most likely candidate, and Kim, then Von, then Jodie making up the other half. But I HOPE it’s Antonio, despite the odds.
I’m really, really bummed to lose Kim and Sasha but this is an extraordinary season. I’ve been counting off their weeks since the start. I’m ready to commute my worrying and hand wringing to Paige and Mark.
More than ever, I wish we could just vote someone off ’cause damn it, Antonio hasn’t earned a spot in the finals and he’s an SOB to boot!
To add to my comment above – I really don’t get a sense that Val’s fans really love Ginger the way other Val partners have been loved. I also notice that Val isn’t Tweeting as much for her as he’s done in the past. I dunno – the whole partnership just seems so flat and boring to me – not an exciting partnership for Val and his fans I think.
Excellent analysis – gotta agree that Kim and Sasha will be gone. And if it’s also Jodie and Keo, I will be really disappointed. I’m “digging” your theory that the men will all be declared safe, though I personally think both Antonio and Von should go before any of the women.
Great numbers as usual! I would love to see Jodie and Kim stay but I really think that Antonio’s comeback & Ginger’s GMA connection will put them through. I voted for Paige and Mark bc I felt like they needed the votes the most.
Carrie – I definitely agree about Val’s fans not warming up to this partnership. To me, you’re a Val fan if you like intensity/drama/showmance. This couple has none of that – nor do they have positives like growth/evolving together – or even separately. I wanted Val to get a different type of partner – someone with a positive attitude and no drama – but it doesn’t seem like Ginger was the RIGHT one. I will be surprised if they’re not eliminated on Monday – although perhaps this is all just wishful thinking on my part.
Clearly from this week forward eliminations will be tough. I can see Kim being eliminated, although it makes me sad (I love her partnership with Shasha). I’m still glad they got this far and I hope Sasha remains a pro for future seasons, he did a fantastic job.
On the other hand, although I agree that the other elimination might be Jodie, I can’t believe she is really at risk of leaving so early. I mean, any other season (and with another partner) she could win this thing and would definitely be a lock for the finals. But I think that this season the competition is tough (both in talent and fan bases) and honestly I think paring her with Keo hindered her. I believe Keo has grown something as a pro and choreographer this season but, I’m sure he is not bringing out the best in Jodie. I hope producers realize he needs some time in the Troupe. I can’t imagine that after this season they would still use Keo as a pro before Sasha ever again (of course there are other factors, such as height, to consider).
In addition to not bringing out her full dancing potential, I get a “not very okey” feeling with that couple. Like, sometimes I feel that the emotional and personal experience that we love celebrities to have on this show (and probably the reason that so many celebrities remain connected to the show long after their seasons end) is also not happening 100% for Jodie. And I think it has to do with their partnership. I don’t know, maybe I’m biased. But as an audience member I feel that pairing Jodie with Keo robbed be of some amazing performances she is capable of producing and to some degree and I think that deep inside she might know that (especially with so many talented dancers and great performances to compare this season). I like Keo as a dancer and maybe he just needs time to grow and develop his choreographic and teaching techniques (hey apparently it works! Look at Lindsey!).
So, although I will not be surprised if it is Jodie I will be sad and left feeling that we did not see the best of her.
Great work PH. It’s really a crazy one to call, isn’t it?
It just seems like Kim’s done-for this week which makes me very sad. I’d love to be proved wrong.
I’m worried about Von because I think Broncos fans realize there’s more to life than football and don’t give a hoot about Von being on DWTS. However, your suggestion that the men vs. women team dances is a convenient set-up for an easy, time-saving “you’re all safe” call gives me hope.
Hopefully we can get rid of GMA Ginger. That would somewhat ease the pain of losing Kim and Sasha.
Guess I’ll see how TPTB present the couples this week and how the double elim plays out. Even though I still like a number of the couples, I gotta admit I’m very close to checking out of this season.
Leigh, they could have had an idea of how it was going to work out if the vote disparities are regularly large between the top half (Nyle, Wanya, etc) and everyone else.
But my thought was they would have the men’s team dance LAST and then while they are all getting their scores tell them they are safe. I doubt they will do it your way – although it seems they have done it once in the past…
My fear, Frabs, is that I’m right about Ginger being safe and then she turns it on a pulls out a good enough dance to take out Paige next week. That…would suck.
Heh, Julia – they find Ginger annoying because of the lack of a showmance. Many of his fans seems to need/want showmances in order to enjoy any dancing.
Val hasn’t been really motivated, nor has he come up with any notable choreography, ever since he won the MBT. So he’s got a MBT and his own tour…is he just coasting until the next showmance/ringer with a guarantee come along??
Dang PH, bite your tongue! Lose Paige and keep Ginger? Hearsay!
Unfortunately, I believe your predictions are going to be right Monday night. I would really prefer to lose Antonio/Ginger over Kim and Jodie. I tossed some votes last week to Von and Jodie, so maybe Ginger will go home over either Kim or Jodie.
I see what your saying, P.H. About the vote disparity and maybe that was what they are banking on.
I guess I just remember the times they have told someone they are in jeopardy and then made them dance and I could see them just loving the drama of telling a team that half of them are going home and then the added pressure of making them perform. I hope I’m wrong, but nothing would surprise me at this point.
How I would love this week elimination to be Ginger & Antonio. but sadly I do not think that is the case.
I think it will be between Von, Kim & Ginger with an outside chance of Jodie
@Leigh – How about when Diana Nyad was eliminated even before she had a chance to dance. I loved it when she spoke up and said she wanted to dance. You go girl!!
Thank you for these weekly numbers, they are always extremely interesting. I hope you are right and I’m wrong…
I think Kim is absolutely nailed on to be eliminated. One thing I noticed last week was Ginger wasn’t called in jeopardy at the end. Is she getting lots of votes or do TPTB see her as expendable over the likes of Paige. I think Von will be okay and it will be between Jodie or Ginger for the second elimination. Personally I don’t mind who it is. Neither are very memorable and I expect both to be eliminated by the quarter finals.
Thanks for this post and hard work Heidi. My gut says Kim is going. The other is a toss up. I wouldn’t put it past TPTB to call the men all safe. DRAMA!!! I’d love Antonio to go but his kiss and make up with Sharna (and her taking one for Team Not Boomin) makes me feel he is sadly safe. Ginger I think is safe, never in jeopardy, GMA pimping and Val’s fans. Now one thing that does interest me is Von. Von doesn’t have a contract in place with the Broncos and has refused their latest offer. So it makes me wonder are Broncos fans showing the love (votes) to a player that while MVP is talking with other teams? If not I could see him possibly going. But I think it will be Kim and likely Jodie.
Great post as always, Heidi! I’ve been thinking about all the scenarios about how Monday’s night elimination would go.. lol. I think you’re right about Kim being one of the ones eliminated.. as far as the second person it will probably be between Jodie, Von and Ginger.
@M8, well.. they do it to Derek often where they don’t call any of his partners in jeopardy and then when they do, they get eliminated. (For ex: Bethany and Nastia). But, they had him and Bindi in jeopardy last season and won. So to me, in a way jeopardy sometimes helps a couple out because I think sometimes people take for granted that their favorite is safe.. Jeopardy tends to give them a wake up call, like with Paige this week.
You can’t really tell what jeopardy means in a given season until that season is over and you can go back and study it. But about 50% of the time or slightly more, jeopardy does mean you are in trouble. Now, I haven’s studied it in a few seasons – it could mean even more now.
I have been reading a lot of comments of people saying they are sick of ginger she’s not that great and tired of her being pimped 24/7 on the show and by gma on Facebook on each post, so hopefully it’s her, I like Kim but she needs to take care of her injuries and maybe her being eliminated will be okay too. But you’re right Heidi it’s so hard to tell what can possibly happen Monday night. But it sounds very much like the show if they call one group safe and the other are all in jeopardy. I just hope it’s not Paige and hope people got a wake up call to vote for her after that, hope all the Derek fans pull through with it!
Just a thought, could they call all the women safe and eliminate Von and Antonio? As much as I am not a fan of Ginger, I would rather see the two football players gone. Have not been a fan of Von and Witney this season and even less of Antonio and Sharna especially after last weeks package. Kim and Jodie seem more dedicated and committed and deserve to stay another week or two. Ginger can go next week. I’m tired of seeing and hearing her and Val on the View and GMA and how great they are doing. Well I guess we can wish all we want, and we will find out the verdict Monday night. Hopefully it will be Von and Antonio.
@LeannC, I’d be gobsmacked if they called all the women safe and eliminated Von and Antonio. You might not be a fan of either footballer, but Antonio has Steelers Nation voting for him as well as TPTB’s (rather bizarre) support, and Von must have some Broncos fan support as well as a lot of name recognition with the average football fan/DWTS viewer. He seems to have won over some loyal DWTS fans (based on comments on this site and my own evolving affection for him). That said, I while I could see Von getting the shove on Monday, I just don’t think there’s a hope in hell Antonio would be going with him.
Double eliminations are always so hard but I wonder if they aren’t easier on the couples than if they were eliminated individually.
Yeah I think Kim and Sasha will definitely be going. I’m sad to see them go but didn’t connect with them they way I thought I would.
Jodie really got my attention with her paso and I think she rocked that contemporary. I`d love to see her and Keo stay.
I think Von will survive this week. I like him but he`s not really standing out. It`s funny how Antonio behaves badly and gets more attention than Von who seems to be a gentleman.
I`d like to see Ginger go as I felt both her salsa (her not the choreo) and her Nasty dance were so BORING.
So I am going to say Ginger and Kim.
# Cidra one can only wish. It’s not a matter of not being a football fan, it is just the fact of not being impressed with Von as a dancer not his football performance. As far as Antonio is concern I don’t find his attitude and lateness to be worthy of continuing on with this competition. There are other contestants who give 100+ percent and have earned a chance to continue. Again this is only my opinion.
It would be nice, LeannC, but that would truly be shocking. I have a feeling that the DWTS version of shocking won’t really be.
@LeannC, You posed a question — namely could all the women be called safe and Von and Antonio be the two who were eliminated. I gave you my answer, which is (of course) just my opinion. Your being a football fan or not a football fan had no bearing on my response. All I was saying is I’d be very surprised if both Von and Antonio were eliminated on Monday. Von could go, but (unfortunately) Antonio seems to be sitting pretty. I’d love to see him gone.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they pulled the “one of the lowest scorers from last week is safe” game early on in the show to make it dramatic since it’s a double elim. I can also see calling the boys all safe after the team dance, but if Von is leaving that won’t happen.
I have a bad feeling about Wanya for some reason. With Nyle’s bad week and everyone trying to save those at the bottom.
I know it’s highly unlikely for Wanya to go home, logically. I just can’t shake it. I’ve been extremely busy and didn’t make time to vote this this week so that’s probably the source of my guilt.
That being said, I hope it’s Antonio and Ginger that goes home. But I’m going to go with Jodie and Kim as my guess
Tina, that seems to be the producers’ favorite game so would not at all be surprised if they called one of the low scorers safe first, or a whole team for that matter spas PH mentioned.
Im with Danielle re Wanya. They have purposely downplayed him for whatever reason and he doesn’t seem to have a significant SM footprint like some of the others. I really believe he should win it all, but if he doesn’t make the finals I’m done this season lol.
Any elimination will be sad this week. I may have to hide after saying this, but I like Antonio too. He seems like a good person. I hope after the last couple of weeks he understands the commitment he made to DWTS. I don’t think Sharna was completely blameless either.
Like many, I think this week it will be Kim and Von. I think Von is much more entertaining than Ginger, but the GMA supporters and Val’s fans will probably pull through for now. If they call a whole team safe I think Jodie will go before Ginger.
I think ardent fan bases will determine the outcome this season, that and the judges’ pick.
Unfortunately, I agree with you PH. It will probably be Kim and Jodie leaving but oh how I wish it was Antonio and Ginger. That would truly make me happy. Antonio doesn’t deserve it and I don’t think he’s going to change his attitude and work ethic at all. He has the TPTB on his side and the crazy Steeler fans. Sharna doesn’t need to be handed a trophy like Val, Maks and Tony were because “it’s her turn.” I would think she’s better than that. And Ginger is just boring and I’m tired of her getting pimped every day on GMA. And when she leaves, she takes Val with her.
Antonio can’t expect to throw his baby tantrum halfway through the season and then expect everybody to say, wow, we’ve been so wrong about him. No, we haven’t. And someone like that doesn’t change overnight, he hasn’t had an epiphany, and he needs to go.
Von deserves to stay. There’s no way Wanya and Nyle are going anywhere and I’m hoping even after being in jeopardy, Paige stays. Those are who the final three should be, and if that were to happen, I would be happy with whoever wins.
In fact, I would be fine with whoever the winner is as long as it isn’t Antonio. He doesn’t deserve it for so many reasons.
Well, Rose, the ardent fanbases always determine the outcome, along with the judges. It’s just that it’s not *established* fanbases, but those developed over the course of the show. Like Derek and Bindi.
I think another reason there isn’t so much “heat” around Val and his partner this season is that Derek isn’t here to get their blood boiling about whatever.
I do think that Von and Paige were put in jeopardy because TPTB want to keep them around. I tend to think they were not the bottom. It occurred to me that Ginger might not be doing that great in votes, but as she doesn’t seem to add much of anything to the broadcast, instead of trying to save her, maybe TPTB have decided that the best use to which she can be put is as a shocking elimination. And with that hope-infused reasoning, I’ll say it’s Kim and Ginger.
Oh Suzy I never thought of that maybe Ginger is getting so little votes she’s helpless so being a shocking elimination will give her more buzz than just being that celeb that finishes only week 7. I can see the judges giving her 10’s next week and that whoop she’s eliminated. What a “shocker” It may be a lot of over thinking but I do think and hope that it is possible.
Yes your right Tina, that’s why I said Ginger is either getting enough votes to not be in trouble, or TPTB have decided that saving Paige is more important than Ginger hence calling her in jeopardy instead of both Ginger and Jodie even if it risks either of them getting eliminated.
I’m hoping Kim is getting Emma’s fans as well as some of Derek’s :))
I’d like to see Ginger and Antonio go, but I can see TPTB wanting Sharna to hoist that MBT up…or Val ::insert eye roll::
It’s a tough one this week I do think Kim will be going home the 2nd one is up for grabs I too really hope it’s not Jodie but being paired with Keo makes me nervous as people tend to vote for the pro more than the star which is why I think Ginger will be safe. I don’t think Paige is going anywhere anytime soon I really think she will be in the finals A finale without Mark and or Val would not be good for DWTS I would love to see Antonio and his attitude go home but I think it will sadly be Jodie just because Keo is not as popular as Witney or Val
I’m a firm believer that most of the viewers of the show had already chosen their favorite way before smug Antonio made his stupid comeback. Unless your diehard Steeler fan I really don’t think Antonio is picking up many new fans.
And Sharna has not earned a MBT this season. And if they hand her one I am going to be pissed. If the TPTB want a first time MBT winner it should be Lindsay. Without question.
Happy Monday guys! Tonight should be very interesting.. I’m excited but I’m also dreading the elimination. As long as Paige, Wanya and Nyle are safe, I don’t care who leaves, honestly.
Oh and I just had a thought. I wonder how they’re going to do elimination tonight since there are team dances? If I recall correctly, didn’t they eliminate 1 couple about the middle of the show and then one at the end in previous seasons? Curious at how they’re going to do it tonight. I know they’ll probably call some people safe early, but it wouldn’t make sense to eliminate someone during the show since there will then be an uneven number for team dances, and not fair to that person since they rehearsed it all week.
Just because they’ve done it that way once, Tina, doesn’t mean they’ll do it that way again. And they may not call anyone safe early – that’s a once in a while thing too. I think my scenario is more likely.
It’s MONDAY…… and no not football, but dancing!!!! I’m good with your basic math, but I get lost with these percentages and votes per million. Not so much lost in the translation, but in the method. Cudos to Heidi. My take is that Kim gets eliminated, UNLESS she is pulling in Emma voters since she dates Sasha. I am praying that Ginger is getting a good share of votes on her own, BUT, I think she will pull out not only Val’s fans but votes from the Max fan base as well. Who do I WANT to be eliminated? Usually at this point in the season I have made up my mind who will stay and who will go. But damn, it’s so close between Kim, Ginger and Jodie. I do not dislike any remaining stars/pros. Which is also a first at this point in the season for me. But I’m going to predict Kim and Jodie go. And I think it will be because of what I’ve read about Keo from SO many sources/fans. I do not see the negative attitude that they see in Keo. I love Keo, but when it comes to his fan base it is pretty low. What I’ve looked at are the numbers of replies, likes, on IG. And it seems Keo and Jodie have a lot less than Ginger. Kim and Sasha’s are lower than Ginger’s as well. If Ginger could have been “nasty” last week, I would say she would be safe for sure. The dance itself was very well done by her. I’ve watched it repeatedly, as I do all of them each week, and she was SO in sync with the rest of the dancers, it was impressive. Even the judges loved that part of the dance. I honestly thought she deserved 9’s, only dropping her one point for her non-nasty ability. I do not see Von or Antonio going home purely based on their fans. As for Nyle, when he said what he did last week about Val being his competition, and Len’s scolding of him, I was kind of turned off by that. I felt it was quite arrogant. HOWEVER, I realized after I heard him explain what he meant, or perhaps just trying to do damage control, I gave him the benefit of the doubt. In that he is hearing impaired, my biggest question is, are his, or anyone’s, translators for that matter, able to translate the emotion with which it is being said. I would love to know the answer to that. Because if they can, then I think his translator could have put it in better context.
So now, what do I want to have happen? I guess I will be hoping Kim and Jodie go home. And I really like them and their partners. I love Ginger’s ability to even have the energy to dance given her schedule. And because Val (and Max) are my two favorite pros(past and present). I know they have haters, but I’m pretty positive they have more lovers. All I know for sure, is I am n the Pacific Time Zone, and rather wait and watch it at eight o’clock here, I follow online what is going down and I already know who is going home. I’m a sports fanatic (especially IndyCar and NASCAR) and there are many times I have to know who wins before I decide whether to watch it on tape!!!! My heart literally can’t take it. So far this season of DWTS, I’ve waited to watch it when it comes on at eight here. But tonight I’m gonna be WAY too nervous and curious to wait, and will read along the live performance via the Internet. That way if Ginger goes home I can be somewhat calmed down before watching it. My poor husband. He hates that I do that, even though I never tell him who gets the boot, and I don’t let him see my reaction. I just calmly sit through the show and let him be surprised.
Ok I think I can get down off my soap box now that I’ve said pretty much everything I wanted to cover.
Happy Happy Happy Dancing Monday, and may we all agree come tomorrow that at least it was a great show. Thanks for your time.