Dancing with the Stars Season 22, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, this is going to be a tough one, folks, cuz all the low hanging fruit is gone. And double eliminations are doubly difficult. Any number of people could be on the chopping block.

Those who don’t have to worry this week are likely Nyle and Wanya.  And I guess Antonio, as much as it pains me to say so.  Everyone else? Well, this will be the week where we find out (partially) who isn’t getting the votes.  Here are the scores and percentages:

DWTS 22 Wk 6 Table 1

I’ve seen people on twitter using the typical hyperbole and they really don’t know what they’re talking about. “Ooooo…the scores are so tight it could be anyone.” Well, that’s not really true.  “We will probably get a shocking elimination.”  Yeah, that’s ONLY true if you’re a neophyte who has never seen this show before and you just came out of your cave in a loincloth. The ONLY truly shocking elimination this coming Monday would be either Wanya or Nyle.  No one else really qualifies…not even Antonio, really. I would be somewhat shocked, I guess, just because of his fanbase, but really shocked? Nah. It’s a double elimination and he’s widely been rumored to be a d*ck, so there you go.  Don’t think we’ll get that lucky though. 🙂

So why is the “It could be anyone” crowd wrong? Well, see below.

DWTS 22 Wk 6 Table 2

See, Kim, Von and Ginger would ALL have to get more than 22k more votes per million votes cast EACH than Wanya in order for him to be eliminated. Does anyone really see that happening? I don’t.  Not to mention that Jodie and Nyle would both have to get a ton of votes to get past him.  Everyone in the cast would have to be covering a margin of some sort or another to beat him. I don’t see that happening. Hence, not “anyone” can be eliminated. 🙂

It’s when you move beyond Wanya that it starts to get a bit tricky. I’m going to say that Nyle is still safe, despite the hatchet job they did on him this past week.  If he was in any danger of leaving, they probably wouldn’t have done the hatchet job to begin with.

Since they acted like rainbows shot out of Antonio’s ass, I’m also going to say he’s safe – well, thanks to that and Steeler Nation, whose members seem to feel that they must win everything, deserving or not.  So, if we eliminate Wanya, Nyle and Antonio from consideration, that leaves us with Paige, Jodie, Kim, Ginger and Von.

Anything strike you about this group of remaining celebs? Well, sans Von they are all female. Want to bet that at the end of the team dances they tell the men “You’re all SAFE!!!”  I would almost put money on it. I’m trying to find a reason why they wanted to do Men versus Women – this is one of my reasons. That, and a little bit of good ole fashioned DRAMA when you put all the men in one room and all the women in another.

Anyway, as you can see from Table 2, four of the five possible eliminees are scrunched around the bottom of the leaderboard.  Essentially, Kim, Von and Ginger all need TWO of the following things to be safe on Monday night, thanks to the double elimination:

  • They need to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than TWO of the others in their trio, OR;
  • They need to get about 4,410 more votes per million votes cast than either Jodie or Nyle, OR;
  • They need to get 13,220 more votes per million votes cast than Antonio, OR;
  • They need to get 17,622 more votes per million votes cast than Paige.
  • Some combination of the above that leads to two people being below them in total score.

Now you see why Paige got a ten that some feel was premature. Girlfriend is an excellent dancer, but that wasn’t quite a ten.  So. I’ve already said that I think Antonio is safe. And I don’t THINK that Paige is going anywhere. I’m nervous, but I don’t think it’s her time yet. That’s still a good number of votes and I wager that one of them isn’t making the cut. The question is, are TWO of them not making the cut?  I’m going to guess that she’s still safe. I’ll be extremely bummed to be wrong.

We’ll come back to Paige in a minute. Back to Kim, Von and Ginger. Personally, I think that Von has got to be getting more votes than either Kim or Ginger based on his football fanbase, but it’s really hard to say. He was also placed in jeopardy last week. Jodie has been in jeopardy TWICE and Paige once.  So, Von might be getting the votes to get past both Kim and Ginger.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’s got the one vote over either of them.  I would also bet that Von is doing better than Jodie – but damn.  But look at it this way, Von only needs a vote more than both Kim and Ginger and only 4.4k more than Jodie. I’m willing to bet that at least two of those are true, which would make him safe.

So, if I’m right about Von for one more week, that leaves us with Kim, Jodie and Ginger. And really, these are the three that aren’t really making an impact, that are riding the middle of the pack and who are only average dancers. In Kim’s case, it’s not that she’s not nice, fun, lovely and all that – but it doesn’t really seem to be making a dent. Jodie? Same thing.  As for Ginger…well, she has a daily pimping platform in GMA and they’ve been making the most of it. But it’s SO transparent!

It comes down to this: in order to be SAFE, there has to be TWO people with a combined total lower than you. I think that Von is doing better than Ginger, Jodie and Kim, so he’s safe.  I’m inclined to think that Ginger’s GMA connection is going to push her past Jodie by the required 4.4k more votes per million votes cast.

And that leaves us with Kim and Jodie. But what about Paige? I said we’d come back to her. And I already implied I thought she would be safe this week. ALL of the following things would have to happen in order for her to be eliminated:

  • Kim, Ginger and Von would ALL have to get 17.7k more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Jodie AND Nyle would both have to get 13.3k more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Antonio would have to get 4.4k more vote per million votes cast than her.

Now, that’s a good number of votes. We’ve seen it happen before, with Audrina Patridge and those numbers were far larger. But my sense is that none of the other ladies are beating that spread.

I’ve already discussed Kim and Ginger, along with Von…but why do I think Jodie over Ginger? I already mentioned GMA being one of the deciding factors, but also there is the pro factor. I don’t think Val is any better a pro than either Keo or Sasha, but he does have a more established fan base. I suspect that Mark is getting the lion’s share of the Derek vote. So Ginger has GMA and Val, while Jodie and Kim have their own fanbases. Honestly, it could go any number of ways. For Jodie to be eliminated, ALL of the following things have to happen:

  • Two or more of Kim, Ginger and Von get 4.4k more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Nyle gets ONE more vote per million votes cast than her, AND:
  • Jodie DOESN’T get 8.8k more votes per million votes cast than Antonio, AND;
  • Jodie doesn’t get 13.3k more votes per million votes cast than Paige, AND;
  • Jodie doesn’t get 17.7k more votes per million votes cast than Wanya.

You might be inclined to think that Kim is getting the votes to get past Jodie. Doesn’t matter, she has to get past TWO people to be safe. Since I don’t think Kim is getting past both Ginger and Von AND Jodie, I think she will be eliminated.

I could go around and around on this all day long, but ultimately I think it comes down to Jodie, Kim and Ginger, with Jodie and Kim being eliminated.

If the Berg doesn’t call all the men safe, then I’ll start to think that it’s Kim and Von going home. But my final guess is Jodie and Kim. With so many people bunched at the bottom, it’s a very tough call and my odds of being wrong are way high this week, besides my good record so far this season.  Odds are good that I’ll be writing an elimination post mortem early next week. 🙂

What do you all think?