Dancing With The Stars Season 24, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!
So this week you have to ask yourself this question: Just how solid are Bonner and Sharna??
Are they getting a ton of votes or has everyone forgotten about them? You tell me, cuz I just don’t know. I’m leaning toward people have forgotten him. He hasn’t made much of an impact, whereas I feel like the other potentially low hanging fruit (Nick) has made more of one – for getting screwed more than anything else. 🙂 But let’s look at the numbers.
Raise your hand if you think the judges (for whatever reason) thought that Nick would be the one going home this week and accidentally gave him a higher score than what they would have if they thought he was staying. :::raises hand::: As you know, we’ve had much discussion over the last couple years about how much the judges know about the voting – if the producers tell them. I’ve always been of the mind that they tell LEN and Len sort of guides the narrative that the producers want to sell. Whether they tell him outright or they just give him hints, who knows? Anyway, I tend to think the judges buy their own BS half the time and had convinced themselves that Nick was leaving and that Erika was awesome. They really should read this blog – we’re right a good amount of the time. 😉
Anyway, Nick could actually make it through this week – it’s a tough call. I almost wonder if we’re in “shocking elimination” territory – and I’m looking at Heather. But I skip ahead. David is low man on the totem pole and I very seriously doubt he’s leaving just yet. Take a look.
David only needs about 3,300 more votes per million votes cast to beat Bonner and be safe – that should be a walk in the park for a guy who recently won a world series. Not only that, but he needs less than 10k to beat Rashad and about 16.5k to beat Nick and Heather. See, this is why it gets interesting this week – I think that David and Rashad are raking in the votes. I think Rashad is probably getting enough votes to beat the spread for everyone above him except maybe Normani and Simone…and maybe even them. I think David could well be beating Bonner, Nick and Heather…and if I’m right about both of those things, then suddenly Bonner, Nick and Heather are your bottom 3. And this whole shebang becomes very difficult to call.
So, is David beating Bonner? I think yes. Is he beating both Nick and Heather? No idea. I am leaning toward yes. So, let’s assume he’s safe. What does Bonner need to be safe?
See, this is why it’s hard this week. Is Bonner beating Rashad? No. But also, that 13.2k more votes per million votes cast to get him past Nick and Heather is a lot harder for him than the 16.5k probably is for David. Can he do it? He only has to beat one of them to be safe. Which one? Either? Neither?
Hmmmm. I’m really leaning towards neither, which means that Bonner would go home. I think that the Bachelor and Gleek beat a previously unknown bull rider…or at least Bonner can’t cover that spread. I kind of can’t see a way around it – David beats Bonner, Rashad beats nearly everyone, Bonner can’t overcome a 13k spread to get past Nick and Heather.
Just for a minute, let’s pretend that Bonner is safe. I’ve already said I think Rashad is going exactly nowhere. So, what about Nick and Heather? How safe are they?
Their safety hinges almost entirely on David and Bonner and the strength of their fanbases. Rashad has certainly blown past that 6.5k more votes to beat them (unless a lot of people fell for the “lets call him safe early in the show” ploy by the producers), so forget him for a minute. For Nick and Heather to be safe, they need ONE of the following things to happen:
- They need for David to NOT get 16,500 more votes per million votes cast than them, OR;
- They need for Bonner to NOT get 13,200 more votes per million votes cast than them, OR;
- They need for Rashad to NOT get 6,500 more votes per million votes cast than them, OR;
- One or both of them need to get 6,600 more votes per million votes cast than Nancy.
Okay, so I doubt that last one is happening but you never know. If it were, we are back to Bonner because there’s no way that Bonner is getting nearly 20k more votes than Nancy. The Rashad thing – no. David? Argh!!
Okay, my gut keeps saying that Bonner is the one going home. I think David beats Bonner, Rashad beats everyone except Simone and Normani, David may or may not beat Heather and Nick – but it doesn’t matter because I don’t think that Bonner does and David beats Bonner – clear as mud?
So, I’m going with Bonner being eliminated – mainly because 13.2k votes is kind of a lot for him. BUT, if Bonner, Rashad and David are all called safe, it comes down to Nick and Heather and are YOU certain that Heather is getting one more vote per million votes cast than Nick? I’m not positive. That’s when things could get interesting. Me thinking that Heather would be next is probably wishful thinking on my part and my second choice should be Nick. Should be. 😉
What do ya’ll think?
I agree I think it almost has to be Bonner. David and Rashad I believe are running away with votes and Nick being 4 pts ahead of Bonner and much more known about will probably keep his lead Although many times it comes down to the most popular pro Sharna vs Peta
I’m guessing it’s either Bonner, Nick, or Heather, in order of likelihood. Was a little worried about Nancy but the margins are wider than I thought so I think she’ll make it. 🙂
I agree that Bonner is going home this week. I think his problem is that he had pretty much no fanbase coming into the show, so he has to rely entirely on Sharna’s fanbase and getting the support of the unattached fans who watch every season. I don’t think he’s doing all that amazing with the unattached fans who watch every season because there’s just too much competition for those votes in a season that has Simone, Rashad, David, and Nancy. I’d be really surprised if he’s getting enough votes to put him past Heather or Nick (which is the only realistic way I seem him staying around, as I don’t think it’s likely at all that Rashad or David goes home this week).
Love Sharna, (still grieving over James) but am not voting for Bonner. He’s a nice guy & is trying but I feel he was brought in too soon post injury. He’s improving, yes, but the show needs to “vet” the stars a bit better. He may have had a real shot this fall, or spring 2018. Now was not his time.
Awesome analysis as always, I agree that Bonner is probably going home. Bonner really hasn’t made much of an impact on me, he’s an okay dancer but doesn’t seem to be improving that much
Even though I like David and admire the work Lindsey is doing this season, I wouldn’t mind seeing David go soon, but not before Heather. He’s doing this for fun, said he didn’t think he would last this long and he has a job waiting for him. He’s one of ESPN’s 2 new baseball commentators. So he’s another one that may not be available for a tour this year.
Sadly, I agree it’s probably Bonner. But still holding out hope we see our first “shocking” elimination by saying goodbye to Heather.
It probably will be Bonner, but I really wouldn’t mind if it is Heather that leaves. I don’t really get much entertainment from her dances.
Thank you so much for the breakdown. It never ceases to fascinate me how things stack up.
Because I’ve been so pissed that Heather was even on this season to begin with, I hope she goes next. However, I doubt it will happen.
Bonner really should be next. He’s as much fun to watch as paint drying.
As long as Bonner, Nick and Heather all go next (in whatever order they go in), I’ll be happy.
I see a finale of Rashad, Simone and Normani but I would love for Nancy and David to make it.
Judges scores will be critical for Heather after this week. One bad week and she could well be toast.
I think it would have been Nick next, if not for the inflated scores that have undoubtedly saved him. I expect Bonner will go Monday instead, and I won’t be surprised if they start pimping Nick in addition to Normani and Heather.
Unfortunately, I think David will go before Heather. The producers will see to it. I think they will do everything they can to get the the Cs into the finals. Julianne’s odd behavior has convinced me of that much.
Has Heather mentioned that she would be open to a DWTS tour? If so, then it may be that she won’t be going home soon. Plus her partner is a producer favorite. I bet Nick would want to go on tour since he really doesn’t have a job after DWTS, does he? I’m just wondering about the tour since it sometimes is used in producer’s manipulations.
It would be safe to pick that Bonner would be the next choice to go. Unless the country vote is strong to save him.
Regardless of whether they want to keep Heather around for tour reasons (although it hasn’t even been confirmed that there will be one this summer), C-bros reasons, or whatever other reasons, that is only possible if she’s doing somewhat okay in the votes. If she’s doing terribly, then the only way to get her to the finale would be to give her perfect scores AND give one of the other talented contestants some seriously awful scores. I really don’t think the producers would go that far to enact whatever agenda they have because that would be extremely transparent and shoot their credibility. I’m not saying they won’t manipulate things to buy her an extra week or two, I’m merely saying that if she’s not pulling the votes, they won’t do the manipulation they need to in order to get her to the finale because it would become too obvious what they were doing.
I still think that Normani and Heather are background-wise the same, except Normani sings as well as dances. The problem for Heather is she danced two Britney Spears songs on Glee. But, her no finals exit can be explained by having two partners in five weeks. That’s tough and every celebrity who had a similar experience said as much.
I think the producers really wanted an even gender split for this week, so a girl had to go, and all four girls remaining are strong enough to make the finals. Skill and personality factors, to me, takes out Nick and Bonner. Bonner first. Will Bonner supporters vote for Nick? Given last weeks scores, I expect the judges will pad both David and Rashad’s score. Still a lot of speculation that could go in different directions. But, I’m pulling for a Simone, Rashad and Nancy finals. David comes in 4th.
Tour guesses: Nick and Bonner will go, most of the girls will not for the full tour, but maybe a few shows.
Continuing with the tour angle, This weekend is the NFL draft in Philadelphia. Rashad is a free agent looking for a team. Even if he signs, there should be enough time for him to tour before reporting in July. Best of luck, Rashad!
I think Heather may go this week because I just don’t see her making the finals and this way it saves their precious Maks. He will be able to blame her failure on Alan and claim she would have had a chance to win if only he didn’t get hurt. I also don’t see Maks or Peta doing a tour with the baby so young (haven’t heard there will be a spring tour) so I wouldn’t factor that in. Bonner is sure to go soon, if not this week probably next, barring some real bad slip up by another celeb.
Definitely agree! Bonner should be the one going home next week, dancewise and based on voting/popularity. Will he? ?
I can see them calling all three-Bonner, Nick and Heather-in jeopardy but that would be soooo predictable. Something tells me David’s gonna be thrown the jeopardy card next week, or even Rashad for some drama ???
Not gonna lie-if we do see a surprise elimination this week and Heather does go home, I’m not shedding any tears LOL oh well is what it is-she wouldn’t be the first, won’t be the last ? But something tells me it’s not her time to go yet….
Roy, you’ve said the same thing about your opinion of Normani & Heather in nearly every post you’ve made. Find some new material.
I can’t see Bonner on the tour, to be honest Roy. His dance abilities are not up to par, he’s doesn’t have the personality to be chatty and engaging with the audience and I’m not sure his body can take the stress.
I’d really like to see Bonner outlast Heather (and possibly Nick), but I just don’t think that’s happening. I don’t even think Sharna’s fanbase can save him because from what I’ve seen, a sizeable chunk of her fans haven’t warmed to him (particularly the James/Sharna shippers). If Nick’s score wasn’t so cushy, I could see it. But that’s not the case.
@Evangelina – Time out. People are STILL trying to ship James & Sharna??? They must not follow James’ instagram very closely – the dude is clearly head over heels for his gf, who also happens to be his high school sweetheart that he reconnected with about 2 years ago. But they think he’d be better off with his former dance partner, who admits that they have more of a brotherly/sisterly bond? *shaking my head* I can’t…I just CANNOT with these fans sometimes…
I think the next eliminations will go like this Bonner, Nancy, Nick, & Heather. Since Maks is back, I just don’t see the show letting one of their fave C-bros go just yet.
David, Rashad, and Normani are all a toss up after the four I mentioned above are gone. I do think Simone is the only lock in for the final and to a lesser extent Rashad if the bussing doesn’t continue on Monday.
Even though I’m not a big fan of any bachelor or bachelorette doing the show, I would much rather have Nick stay than Heather. She’s done the same type of dance each week, no slow dances and her attitude, to me, is that she has this won. Between Maks and Val thinking they have it won, I’m sure they believe it’s going to be them in the finals.
Bonner hasn’t left any impact on me, so if he left, I wouldn’t miss him, but I would much rather see Heather or Normani (I know, Normani is a long shot) go first.
I agree that David, Rashad, Simone and Nancy are getting the votes and TPTB are not going to be able to manipulate around that.
I think the bottom 3 Monday are Bonner, Nick and Heather and it wouldn’t matter to me who left.
Like Heidi says, David definitely beats Bonner so really the elimination depends on how strong Bonners voting base is. I can’t see him beating Bachelor Nation, I think his only chance is beating Heather or Nancy. Heather had a forgettable dance in a bad running order spot and isn’t someone I see that is raking in the votes from the casual viewers/general demo of the show. Nancy had a better dance in a better running order spot but out of all the contestants she’s the one we really have no idea how popular she is or how many votes she’s getting. There’s definitely a risk that she is a lot of people’s 2nd or 3rd favourite and is therefore not getting the all important votes despite being well liked. Personally I think it comes down to those three. I feel like Rashad has definitely gained a support base after his most memorable year story which should come through for him and keep him around.
I think that Bonner may still get a boost from the impact of his MMY package/story. They’ve shown the gut-wrenching video of his accident several times, including last week, I think? I believe that will give him the edge over Heather and she will be eliminated. Despite Julianne’s repeated insistence that “ballroom is SO different” from Heather’s styles, the audience is regularly reminded that Heather is a pro dancer, so she really needed to be a more engaging personality to win over the audience (she’s just expected to dance well.)
I really believe Bonner is leaving us on Monday night. Nothing against him but he really hasn’t made an impact on me and he’s just a so-so dancer – even though I can see his improvement. Unfortunately, he isn’t James Hinchcliffe or even Noah Galloway. Sorry – it’s not Sharna’s “turn” to win IMO.
Even though I am no fan of Nick, I did enjoy his Pinocchio performance and that cute performance and the judge’s over inflated scores will keep him around a bit more.
As for Heather, I think she’ll be in jeopardy and she is another person who has made zero impact on me. Yes she’s a fantastic dancer but there’s something about her that I can’t quite warm up to. I’m beginning to think that this whole DWTS experience isn’t what she thought it would be, especially with the less than stellar scores, two partners, and easy choreo. We’ll see…
As long as Nancy, Shad, and Simone are safe (and to a lesser degree, David) I’ll be happy!
I think Bonner, Simone, and Heather are the most likely candidates for tour, unless Rashad isn’t drafted by an NFL team. Normani has 5H commitments, and David and Nancy don’t seem to want to spend a lot of time apart from their families. Heather may be the same but for some reason I can see her family travelling with them like Alfonso’s and Melissa’s did.
The other thing to consider is that every celebrity who’s been on tour since Season 19 (except Melissa but she was hosting not dancing) has had their partner there as well; Witney was on with Alfonso, Val with Rumer and Laurie, and Lindsay with Alek. I doubt Peta and Maks would go due to their wedding so I’d probably rule Nick as unlikely based on that, but Heather could dance with Alan. I’d imagine Sharna will go, but unsure about Emma and/or Sasha.
I’m not convinced there’s going to be a summer tour – I’m not sure they want to compete with Move Beyond. The last time they tried to do so, Move was selling out venues…and tickets to the DWTS tour stops were ending up on Groupon for half price.
This is why I love the numbers post. Bonner was my gut feeling, but I do think he is getting more support than people might think. Looking at the spread, however, I think the next likely candidates for ouster (Heather, Nick, and maybe even Nancy) are too far ahead of him. I love Sharna, but I don’t see Bonner improving much and he’s a nonentity on this show IMO so I’m fine with him going.
Even though I do think its Bonner, I would not be stunned if it turns out to be Heather or Nick. I also think they might put Rashad in jeopardy for the drama. If we do get a “shocking” elimination, I wouldn’t mind if it was Heather. Out of all the females left she does the least for me, and I’ve never gotten over the fact that she’s a professional dancer.
I agree with them probably not wanting to compete with Move, but if they WERE to do it there probably won’t be that much overlap. A DWTS summer tour would probably run mid-June to mid-August and I believe Move ends June 17th.
In addition to not wanting to compete with Move, I also wonder if DWTS is beginning to understand that it’s not really a great idea to do a tour after every single season, regardless of whether or not Derek and Julianne are doing Move at the same time. I would think that it would be a very small segment of the viewing audience of DWTS that likes it enough and cares enough to purchase tickets that aren’t very cheap to a live tour. If that is the case, it’s probably not very successful to hit up this small group of the viewing audience twice a year asking them to by tickets to the tour, meet and greets, and merchandise.
@m – Exactly – it’s a matter of oversaturation. And that’s exactly what happened to the first round of tours the show did, back around season 5/6 – the novelty quickly wore off, and the ticket sales dried up…fans didn’t want to shell out for two tours a year, and there wasn’t a ton of variation between the shows. And then when you throw the added competition of MOVE into the equation, it probably amounts to ticket sales dwindling even further. I’ve seen most fans of the show say they will go to either Move OR the DWTS – very few will go to both. And given that MOVE isn’t as frequent as the DWTS tours…I’m guessing more will probably go to MOVE this time around.
I get the vibe they’re attempting to put a summer tour together but they may be having trouble getting pros, venues, etc. in on it. I keep seeing dates and presale times popping up but nothing has come to real fruition yet. So I’m guessing it’s up in the air at the moment. If it does happen I suspect we may see a shift in the agenda depending on who signs on to go on it.
@Courtney my thoughts exactly! Between Sharna very vocally saying James feels like a long lost sibling, James’ repeated public declarations of love for Becky, AND Sharna’s talk about being close friends with Becky as well as well as James…I don’t understand the shipping. Yet I’ll STILL hop on tumblr and see people in the sharna tag trying to convince themselves that either 1. Everything is all an act so James and Sharna can fly under the radar or 2. James and Sharna will get together eventually since they can’t do so now. *eyeroll*
Going slightly back on topic, has their been any good feeler (on twitter or otherwise) for how Nick is actually faring with the fanbase? I always got the impression that a good chunk of Bachelor Nation wasn’t too fond of him. I agree with past opinions on this site that the likeable Nick we know is closer to the real thing, but I wonder if BN buys it and is voting for him. I’m hoping they are, simply because, since we probably can’t get Heather out this week, we can maybe get her out NEXT week.
I maybe so wrong, but I really don’t see a tour this soon. The tours seem to be getting a little old anyway. Same group of pros and troupe almost every time, old costumes and same venues. They need to mix it up and I see they really tried for the last tour, but Val can’t be your big gun all the time. They fall all over him, always last to take the ending bows and more time than any other pro with stage time. Do you see Derek, Mark or even Maks doing DWTS tours year after year?? Val’s got nothing better.
@PJC. I agree. I also don’t think if they did happen to do one, Peta would be there. Her wedding is the 2nd weekend in July. Girls gotta get ready at some point. Wedding planner or not, she’s got stuff to do.
@ Evangelina: oh man, the Sharna/James Shipping hit epic levels of weirdness! I recall searching for Team Stop-N-Go dance info online and stumbling over tons of fan fiction of the grown-up variety. File that under “Thing you can’t unsee!”
I hope it doesn’t end up being a curse for Sharna – everyone measuring her partners to standards set by James. But it’s Bonner’s turn to go.
While ticket sales are good PJC the cast or content of the tour is irrelevant. They sold out Radio City so people are more than happy paying out for the tour once a year. If they have two tours a year though it may be a different story as they are expensive tickets.
For some reason every time the tours hit NYC, like at Radio City or at the Beacon Theatre, they get sold out-why?! B/C of Val? Oh please!! ??????????
I happen to be New Yorker myself but there is ONE tour that I paid to go see and that was a summer that came to NYC when Mark was in it!! I ain’t paying to go see Val in any tour if it heads my way-sorry!!
I, personally, don’t believe there will be a summer tour-last year there wasn’t I don’t think?-but there are rumors of ticket sales so I don’t know. But these rumors are not, directly, from @dancingabc so if DWTS is not reporting it yet, I’m inclined to not believe it.
If there were to be one, obviously, Peta wouldn’t be in it LOL-she’s got the baby, she’s getting married, etc. Hell, the tour would have to accommodate for a lot of pros missing tour dates just to be in her wedding so….
NY is a big catchment area that’s why it always sells out there. Ditto for Chicago and all the Florida stops. Mohegan Sun always sells out as well because it’s so easy to get to from so many places. Val would love people to believe it sells out because it’s his hometown, but really that’s not the case.
Move is running through June, right? Yeah…not gonna happen. Jules & Brooks & Maks n Peta are getting married in July.. I know Maks and Peta are definitely getting married in July not sure about Julianne and Brooks. But in light of that I highly doubt there’s going to be a summer DWTS Tour…,leave it between the fall and spring seasons as it has been .
I really enjoy all of the smart comments here. I know nothing of dance but I’m right in the demo – 59 year old woman, etc. I have never watched a bachelor show but I have grown to like Nick! He seems to be hardworking and humble and I’m voting for him! I am hoping he outlasts Bonner (cute but not my favorite) and Heather (never watched glee) – did anyone else catch a facial expression during judging last week that was very disagreeable? I really miss Mark’s creativity. The Boy Band superiority will help Nick this week I think. I predict he stays another week. My. faves are Simone/Sasha and Rashad/Emma. Love Emma! She should be on the cover of People as most beautiful woman!!