DWTS Season 14, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

I’m the only one in my family that is into DWTS. This season, my little sister decided to start watching because she knows I work on two websites that are related to it. She’s taken to texting me during the show, but we have little to no discussion about it on a regular basis. But you can tell we’re from the same family. 🙂 Here is a direct quote from my little sister regarding the team dances:

Please mention on your websites that the gratuitous shirtlessness is getting ridiculous and kind of insulting – as if they take off their shirts and we silly women would be dumb enough to vote for that reason alone. Pathetic manipulation pisses me off. Just dance, stupid.

And that pretty much sums up the team dances. She and I neither live in the same town, nor talk on twitter. She wasn’t even a fan of DWTS before this season. Team Tango was so superior to Team Paso that I can’t even believe there was only one point between them. Mark, Derek and Kym’s fingerprints were all over that…saw some of Derek/Kym’s standard moves for teams with a few new nuances that seemed like Mark. Have no idea if Chelsie is in there or not, but it’s clear that all four of them worked in harmony – with the blessing of their celeb partners. Mark can’t get Katherine to do something, so Derek gives it a try. Nice team work. Team Paso, on the other hand, seems to have gotten caught up in their own hype – and frankly, kudos to the men (William and Donald) who made at least token protests against going shirtless. How about you choreograph the damn dance AND pay attention to your partners??? It was sloppy, it borrowed from last season’s team Paso…it just wasn’t as good as it was scored. You know, I have no problem with shirtless men – Derek never did it before his Lambada with Joanna but has done it occasionally after that; maybe once or twice a season. Never really minded when Maks did it, even though I likely made several sarcastic comments about it. 🙂 Dmitry?? Always has his shirt way open – Always – he’s very proud. Yes, I do tend to mock that. But last night it seemed like their WHOLE entire goal was to get the shirts off those men, in hopes that “us stupid wimmen” would just fall over, enraptured. Ummm…no. It was SO predictable that it annoyed me.

Anyway, I was rather shocked that Katherine did the rumba that I expected but was scored rather appropriately. Shocking. 🙂 Major props to her and Mark for their lovely reaction to Maria and Derek’s dance and scores – I love seeing stuff like that. It’s a shame the dance duel works against that sort of camaraderie.  I am in agreement with Courtney when she says that some couples (Melissa and Maks in particular) got totally screwed by the music.  Derek and Maria worked very well within their musical framework, but I don’t see a way that Maks could do the same for his dance.   Don’t know what the hell was going on during Roshon’s dance, but I don’t feel he was totally underscored this week…but who can say when several seconds were lost with a view of the giant mirror ball?

Let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

You may or may not realize, but the more points they hand out, the smaller the margins actually get – especially with fewer dancers. That helps Melissa, for sure…and it makes me wonder what will actually happen tonight. Two weeks ago, when they only had one dance, a three point difference between dancers translated to about 13,400 votes per million votes cast. That’s what Melissa had to get to beat Jaleel back then, and she did. This week, there is a four point difference between Melissa and Jaleel, but it translates to only 10,900 votes per million votes cast. So, to those of you who were asking me about the judges retaining their power and the viewers losing theirs?? I think it’s actually reversed. The judges created a bigger point difference between Melissa and Jaleel, but since more points total were given out, the spread is smaller. Anyway, for Melissa to stay out of the bottom two, she needs TWO of the following things to happen:

–          Melissa needs 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Jaleel, or:

–          Melissa needs 13,650 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, OR;

–          Melissa needs 16,350 more votes per million votes cast than either Donald or William, OR;

–          Melissa needs 19,100 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;

–          Melissa needs 27,250 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.

Melissa has demonstrated in past weeks that she can beat those margins over Jaleel and Roshon, both. In week 5, she beat a more than 13k spread to stay out of the bottom two over Jaleel. And in week 4, Roshon fell into the bottom two with Sherri, meaning that Melissa had to get more than 17k more votes per million votes cast than he did. The spread is smaller now, but there’s another problem as well. All the people who were voting for Gavin, Sherri, Martina, and Jack may now be voting for someone else. Someone other than Melissa. Roshon and Jaleel might be recognized now as better dancers and are getting more votes that Melissa.  It’s very hard to say.

Of course, the spreads are small enough now that just about anyone could end up in the bottom two…even Maria. That’s the thing about having a real bottom two and a dance duel…fewer people are protecting you from that happening. Instead of just ONE thing having to happen for someone to be safe (ie, that person gets the votes to beat ONE other person), now that someone has to have TWO things happen. It’s not enough for Melissa to just beat Jaleel…she has to beat BOTH Jaleel and Roshon, or Jaleel and Donald…she has to beat TWO people.  Can she do it?? Beats me.

How safe is Jaleel?? Not very. He’s already been in the bottom two and this week he has no protection from it. For him to be safe, he needs TWO of the following things to happen:

–          He needs for Melissa to NOT cover the spread outlined above, AND;

–          He needs 2,730 more votes per million votes cast than Roshon, OR;

–          He needs 5,450 more votes per million votes cast than either Donald or William, OR;

–          He needs 8,175 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;

–          He needs 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.

Yeah, Jaleel isn’t very safe, but neither are Roshon, Donald or William. Those are some little, tiny, numbers. That’s not even very much for Katherine.  That’s actually a bit frightening…or exciting, depending on your POV.  🙂 That said, Jaleel has already been in the bottom and I don’t see him having a sudden resurgence with the people who vote. Why would they?? His most memorable move last night was being bleeped (twice) in the team practice.  And that brings us to Roshon…he needs TWO of the following things to happen for him to stay out of the bottom two:

–          He needs Melissa to not cover the spread, AND/OR;

–          He needs Jaleel to not cover the spread, AND/OR;

–          He needs to get 2,725 more votes per million votes cast than either Donald or William, OR;

–          He needs to get 5,450 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;

–          He needs to get 13,625 more votes per million votes cast then Maria.

If Katherine isn’t getting the votes, this is the week that it may become apparent.  It all depends on just how poorly Jaleel and Roshon (and Melissa) are doing.  If there are any weak vote getters who have been at the top of the leader board, there could be a surprise…and that includes Maria. She’s obviously the safest of the bunch, but those are still not huge spreads. For her to end up in the bottom two would be surprising, because while Melissa might be able to get those numbers, I don’t think Roshon and Jaleel are, as evidenced by their appearances in the bottom two. I think Maria made enough of a splash last night to be safe. And honestly, I think Donald is getting the votes too.   But let’s look at Donald and William – they are tied for third place. What do they need in order to stay out of the bottom two?? Two of the following:

–          Melissa doesn’t cover the spread between them, AND/OR;

–          Jaleel doesn’t cover the spread between them, AND/OR;

–          Roshon doesn’t cover the spread between them, AND/OR;

–          William or Donald gets ONE more vote than the other, OR;

–          Either one of them gets 2,725 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;

–          Either one of them gets 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.

Now, personally, I don’t think either William or Donald have to worry. I don’t think that Jaleel or Roshon are going to cover that spread, and I don’t really think Melissa will either. If it’s NOT some combination of Jaleel/Roshon/Melissa in the bottom two, I think Katherine, and to a much lesser extent, Maria could be in danger. For Katherine to fall into the bottom two, All but one of the following things would have to happen:

–          Melissa gets 19,100 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;

–          Jaleel gets 8,175 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;

–          Roshon gets 5,450 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;

–          Donald AND William get 2,725 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;

–          Katherine DOESN’T get 8,175 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.

The reason I say “all but one” is because, obviously, that “one” will be the other person in the bottom two. All of those numbers above are REALLY scary small numbers for Katherine fans. That said, it’s much less scary since Roshon and Jaleel have already been in the bottom two. What we don’t know is how well Katherine (Or Maria, Donald and William for that matter) are doing in terms of votes.  My guess is that it will be some combination of Roshon/Jaleel/Melissa in the bottom two. But let’s see what has to happen for Maria to fall down into a dance duel. Same as Katherine, ALL but one of the following would have to happen:

–          Melissa gets 27,250 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, AND;

–          Jaleel gets 16,400 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, AND;

–          Roshon gets 13,625 more votes per million votes cast then Maria, AND;

–          Donald AND William each get 10,900 more votes per million votes cast than Maria, and;

–          Katherine gets 8,175 more votes per million votes cast than Maria.

Based on all of the above, I think that Maria, Donald and William are safe. I think Donald and William are getting enough votes to prevent Roshon and Jaleel (at least) from covering the spread. I think that Maria has enough of a margin of safety that Roshon and Jaleel can’t cover that spread either. And really, if that’s true, it doesn’t matter what Melissa is getting as long as she’s covering Jaleel and Roshon’s spread. And I think she might be. She has before – but you never know when all the lesser but popular dancers drop out, where the votes are going to go…if anywhere.

I think Katherine is PROBABLY safe.  I think Melissa is covering the small spread of Roshon and Jaleel.  I think the bottom two is likely to be Roshon versus Jaleel, with Jaleel winning the dance duel.  If it’s not Roshon versus Jaleel, then I think it will be Jaleel versus Melissa, with Jaleel winning.  If Tom starts tweeting about a “shocking” bottom two, start looking at Katherine.