DWTS Season 26, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

After the show, I started writing this post and re-looking at the numbers once Jamie and Johnny were eliminated…and realized that I’m going to have a hard time wrapping my mind around the fact that there are only three more weeks and two more people go home next week. That’s…crazy. There are only 8 couples left and not a ton of low hanging fruit. Interesting.

Well, this show needs a bit of a shake up in any case. 😊

Who’s my favorite thus far?? Well, I have to say, I really love what Jenna did with Adam. That was a ton of fun. I’m not particularly a Sharna fan and…hold on…I need to go actually watch that dance.

Okay…after that I AM a Josh Norman fan!! That was pretty hot. I still think that Mirai is the best dancer and Adam is a close second with a choreographic advantage…but that doesn’t mean either of them will necessarily win this season. Josh is right up there with them and could win this thing. We’ll see!! I also don’t think Tonya should be counted out.

This season is going to be incredibly tough from a numbers standpoint – I don’t feel like many of the typical metrics I use to GUESS who might be going home are actually there this season. I feel like so much of how well people do this season will depend on nearly instantaneous impressions that people have of a given couple. Typically, that impression is aided by their “fame” at some level prior to the show. Athletes who have been on this show in the past have VERY specific fanbases, unlike actors, models and other types of celebs. When it comes to these athletes, Kareem, the ice skaters and the football player have the odds in their favor with the average viewer – largely due to the popularity of their sport and the name recognition. Coincidentally (or not) the ice skaters and the football player also happen to be the best dancers…and Kareem is an icon. So, I suspect that the ice skaters and the football player are more likely to last to the end. Kareem might not due to lower scores.

Anyway, let’s refresh our memories on how everyone did in terms of scores.


Now, if I remember this correctly, the live voting during the show plus judges scores were used to eliminate Jamie and Johnny. The judges scores and the voting after the show by phone and online will result in two more people being eliminated this coming week. Who will it be??
Well, I feel reasonably confident that it will be either Kareem, Arike or Jennie. Of course, no one can be sure. Kareem survived week 1, but he didn’t have to do that much to make it.

As you can see above, he only needed 5k and 10k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Johnny and Jamie, respectively. In order to stay this week he needs 14k more than Arike AND nearly 20k more than Chris or Jennie. Two people going home, means he has to beat two people. I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could do that – half the battle is name recognition and he’s got it where Arike, Chris and Jennie don’t really. It will be tough though. And if he manages to do it, I think it will be Arike and Jenny.

So let’s say that Kareem gets past Arike and Jennie. What do they need to do in order to be safe?

Chris is tied with Jennie as you recall. Well, he only needs ONE more vote than her to be safe. And he needs for Arike to not get 4.8k more votes per million votes cast than him. I don’t think that will be a problem. Personally, I think Arike beats Jennie – she was just more memorable. Problem is, she needs to beat TWO people. I don’t think she gets the votes to get past Mirai, Tonya, Adam or Josh, so she needs to beat BOTH Chris and Jennie, or she needs to beat one of them and have Kareem not cover the spread.

And this is where it’s really hard. I hate double eliminations. My gut is kinda telling me that Arike and Jennie are going to be eliminated – mainly because I think that Kareem can beat Arike and that everyone beats Jennie….which would mean that Jennie and Arike are the two who would be eliminated.

What do you all think?? Am I half right like I was week one? Or completely wrong?