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DWTS 12 Stat Class: Who has the Edge?

So… before the start of last season I attempted to place the “stars” via a long series of calculations in hopes to predict who would leave when during the course of the season.

Needless to say, although I was off in some cases I was also spot on in other cases.

In case you have forgotten what factors I’ve used to calculate the placement of the stars here’s a bit of a refresher: DWTS Season 11 Stat Class

Now it would be interesting to note how the last season affecting the standings of each pro… so below is what the pro ranks are AFTER Season 11 followed by what they were PRIOR to Season 11:
1. 1.) Derek Hough – 7 Seasons
2. 2.) Julianne Hough – 5 Seasons
3. 4.) Lacey Schwimmer – 4 Seasons
4. 3.) Cheryl Burke – 10 Seasons
5. 7.) Dmitry Chaplin – 2 Seasons
6. 10.) Mark Ballas – 7 Seasons
7. 13.) Maksim Chmerkovskiy – 9 Seasons
8. 5.) Kym Johnson – 8 Seasons
9. 11.) Tony Dovolani – 10 Seasons
10. 14.) Anna Trebunskaya – 6 Seasons
11. 8.) Karina Smirnoff – 8 Seasons
12. 9.) Louis van Amstel – 7 Seasons
13. 6.) Chelsie Hightower – 4 Seasons
14. 12.) Corky Ballas – 2 Season
15. 15.) Edyta Sliwinska – 10 Seasons
16. 16.) Alec Mazo – 5 Seasons
17. 17.) Ashly Costa (nee DelGrosso) – 4 Seasons
18. 18.) Jonathan Roberts – 7 Seasons

As one could see, even if a pro does not participate in a season their overall rank is still affected based on those that are participating.

And for sake of completeness here is how the various age groups rank after Season 11:
1. Teens (below 20 years)
2. 20s (20 thru 29)
3. 30s (30 thru 39)
4. 60s (60 thru 69)
5. 40s (40 thru 49)
6. 70s (70 thru 79)
7. 50s (60 thru 69)
8. 80s (above 79 years)

Now it is important to note that the ages represent the age that a celeb is at while they are participating in the show. So if someone is 29 when they were on the show and is in their early-30s now the age group they are representing is that of their 20s.

And finally we have occupations. I tried to use the primary occupation that a celeb is most known for since we do have a lot of crossover celebrities. This category probably contains the most variables when attempting to calculate ranks:
1. NFL athlete
2. Olympian (one that has been to the Olympics AND medaled)
3. Band Member (ie 98 Degrees, Spice Girls, NKOTB, etc)
4. Disney (anyone that got their start w/ Disney, Billy Ray Cyrus is NOT part of this group)
5. Entertainer (ie Wayne Newton, Marie and Donny Osmond)
6. Soap Opera Star
7. Singer (Master P, Billy Ray Cyrus, Toni Braxton, Lil Kim, Aaron Carter, Michael Bolton)
8. Actor
9. Athlete (ie Helio, Monica Seles, Ty Murray, Chuck Liddell, Louie)
10. Host (ie Kenny Mayne, Jerry Springer, Lezza Gibbons, Brooke Burke, Erin Andrews)
11. Actress
12. NBA athlete
13. Boxer (ie Evander Holyfield, Laila Ali, Floyd Mayweather)
14. Reality TV Star
15. Other (anyone that does not fit in any other category)
16. Model
17. Comedian

Now that we know which celebs are part of Season 12, it is time to calculate and attempt to predict how they would place in the upcoming season.

For issues of time and ease of understanding I am only going notate which group each celeb fits per category and their rank, as well as their overall rank.

Age: 50s (Rank: 11)
Occupation: Boxer (Rank: 9)
Pro Partner: Anna Trebunskaya (Rank: 8 )
I really don’t know what to say about this. I mean Anna has done well recently, but for every high placement she has a low placement. Other than Laila Ali, Boxers typically do not rank high in their season despite the natural fast feet. But the first to go? I could see others more likely to fit that bill…

Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Tony Dovolani (Rank: 7)
Female hosts tend to do better than male hosts in the overall standings, but that is also dependent on what they have come in with and if memory serves most of those female hosts has had some prior dance experience, be it ballet, contemporary, etc. Does Wendy have any of that? Not to my knowledge but things could change. Still, personally, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see her as one of the first to go.

Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Actor (Rank: 4)
Pro Partner: Karina Smirnoff (Rank: 9)
Actors tend to do better than actresses, granted that’s mainly in part of the viewing demographic. However with other better eye candy on the horizon, does he really stand a chance?

Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Reality TV Star (Rank: 10)
Pro Partner: Louis van Amstel (Rank: 10)
Another bunny decides that she wanted to come out and play. Thank goodness her first dance isn’t the quickstep, else I may have to walk away do to some distraction or another. I mean, having a bounce is one thing, but bouncing all over the place is quite another. Still the ChaCHa isn’t exactly an improvement in the bounce department, unless Louis knows how to keep the puppies tame. Being young has its advantages, but that only goes so far.

Age: 60s (Rank: 7)
Occupation: Actress (Rank: 8 )
Pro Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy (Rank: 5)
Maksim has had his taste in the top three for a few seasons now, but Kristie is coming up in her age. To me she’s the most “known” but that is only because I loved the “Look Whose Talking” movie series with John Travolta. It will be interesting to see what she comes up with.

Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Model (Rank: 11)
Pro Partner: Dmitry Chaplin (Rank: 3)
Ah yes, the prettiest couple. I am a Dmitry ‘groupie’, so any chance that he could stay on the show longer is a happy day for me. But models tend to do poorly when it comes to placement beating out comedians! Ah well, I’m crossing my fingers.

Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Singer (Rank: 3)
Pro Partner: Chelsie Hightower (Rank: 11)
YES!!! You have no idea how excited I was to hear that they asked him to come on this season. He has GOT to be an improvement over his dad. His pro partner is arguably an improvement (for those that have forgotten, when he was originally asked to join, his partner was slated Ashly DelGrosso now Costa but he was replaced by his dad due to injury). So I am very interested to see how this would pan out.

Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Athlete (Rank: 5)
Pro Partner: Cheryl Burke (Rank: 2)
As yes, Cheryl gets another athlete, there isn’t much to be said, because she knows how to get an athlete to work. So what’s the point?

Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Lacey Schwimmer (Rank: 1)
I don’t know him. Do you? I can’t comment on someone that I have no idea about, I’m sorry.

Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: NFL athlete (Rank: 1)
Pro Partner: Kym Johnson (Rank: 6)
NFL players have a tendency to finish in the top half of the season celebs, with a good number of them finishing near the top three. Hines has his work cut out with him if he is expected to keep the NFL legacy alive. At least he isn’t a quarterback. *evil cackle*

Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Disney (Rank: 2)
Pro Partner: Mark Ballas (Rank: 4)
Don’t ask me how this happened. But it has happened again. In last year’s pre-season ranking I had Bristol Palin and Kyle Massey in the top three and look what happened! I am just saying that at this point, anything can happen.

And there you have it, the final odds as calculated by my normalized calculations derived from the last eleven seasons. Normally I wouldn’t agree with a good number of these ranks, but as it stands, numbers don’t lie and last year just reminded me of that. So let’s just sit back, relax, and see what’s going to happen this season.


March 20, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 12 – Paparazzi, Twitter, And Facebook Round-up Before The Show Begins

Well, crunch time has finally arrived. How are all the celebrities and their pro partners feeling it right now? Take a look below.

From their official facebook page, Anna and Sugar are all smiles….

Louis yesterday pushing Kendra to her limits…..

Dimity excited to be dancing to music with Petra….

Wendy and Tony in New Jersey Friday before heading to California. I think he’s questioning the size of her make-up bag and if she really needs to carry that much lipstick everywhere she goes.

Kirstie’s reaction after Ronn Moss (of “Bold And The Beautiful”) told her to dance her “tanned butt off Monday” and that she’d do “wonderfully!”

Chris Jericho begs, “Feets don’t fail me now”. I’d like to know how many times I’ve said that to myself. 🙂

“Rometower…feel the power”….

Kym doesn’t say much at Twitter, but when she does, she does….

Lacey and Mike “hard at work” or is it more like “hardly working” or maybe both and then some for things we really don’t want to know about? 😯

I wonder what this was all about?

Ralph feeling all the motions and emotions….

Lastly, here is the Paparazzi catching our couples with some last minute thoughts in the rehearsal parking lot this weekend….

A small reminder: If you haven’t validated your email address and/or registered at ABC, be sure to do so as soon as you can or you won’t be able to vote on-line. As you know, every vote counts for your favorite contestant(s) and they need your votes to make it each week. If you think your votes don’t matter, you couldn’t be more wrong. So, please take action, do your part, and join in the voting fun >>>>HERE.

I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.

Dancing With The Stars 12 – Las Vegas Odds Before Showtime

As you can see from our last posting, the Las Vegas Odds have changed some once again. Kendra is definitely in the hot seat at #1. Mike Catherwood has made a big rise from when they first had him at the bottom of the pack several weeks ago. Ralph, Hines, Chelsea, and Sugar Ray continue to have high odds. Let the dancing begin I say! 🙂

Chelsea Kane 6/1
Chris Jericho 10/1
Hines Ward 11/2
Kendra Wilkinson 7/2
Kirsti Alley 10/1
Lil’ Romeo 8/1
Mike Catherwood 15/2
Petra Nemcova 18/1
Ralph Macchio 11/2
Sugar Ray Leonard 6/1
Wendy Williams 12/1

Source: SportsBoDog

I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.

DWTS Season 12, Week 1 – Who’s Dancing What…And When??

Whoo Hooo, it’s almost time!! And I am absurdly excited for the show to get started when you consider my favorite boy won’t be present. 🙂 I hope these peeps give us Cheesecake material – really, is it possible there WON’T be some?? 🙂

Anyway, our first dances of Season 12 are the Foxtrot and the Cha Cha Cha – who will be the poor sap to Cha Cha Cha onto the floor first?? Check back here often, I’ll add info as it becomes available. REMEMBER, just because someone is dancing first, it no longer is absolutely certain that will be their phone number. Last couple of seasons they’ve set the dance order, set the phone numbers, and then ended up switching up the dance order based on something they saw in camera blocking or for some other obscure reason.

Ralph and Karina – Foxtrot (per Karina’s twitter)
Voting Number: 800.VOTE4.08
Dancing 8th

Kenda and Louis – Cha Cha (per Louis’ twitter)
Voting Number: 800.VOTE4.07

Chelsea and Mark – Foxtrot (per Mark’s twitter)
Voting Number: 800.VOTE4.01

Mike and Lacey – Foxtrot (per Access Hollywood)
Voting Number: 1.800.VOTE4.10 (does not necessarily mean they are dancing in the #10 spot)

Wendy and Tony – Cha Cha
Voting Number: 800.VOTE4.02

Kirstie and Maks – Cha Cha (per Maks’ Blog)
Voting Number: 1.800.VOTE4.11

Romeo and Chelsie – Cha Cha (per Pap Video)
Voting Number: 800.VOTE4.05

Chris and Cheryl – Cha Cha
Voting Number: 1.800.VOTE4.09

Hines and Kym – Cha Cha (per First Rehearsal Video)
Voting Number: 800.VOTE4.03

Sugar Ray and Anna – Foxtrot (per Sugar Ray’s Twitter)
Voting Number: 1.800.VOTE4.06

Petra and Dmitry – Foxtrot
Voting Number: 1.800.VOTE4.04

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)