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DWTS Season 14, Week 4 – Just What Caused That “Shocking” Elimination??

I always see lots of wild theories flying around after (and this time BEFORE) a DWTS Results show about why someone got eliminated. My future former husband, Tom Bergeron, was one of the people acting a bit cray cray – or he hit his head at the same time Melissa did. 🙂

Seriously, the only thing shocking the other night was that Roshon  in the bottom two on a night with such a nice spread. So, let’s take a look at what all had to happen for Sherri to leave and for Roshon to find himself in a real bottom 2 situation.

The Sherri deal is pretty easy to explain.  Gladys got at least 4,300 more vote per million votes cast than Sherri did. Not a huge number and, considering she’s Gladys Knight, not at all shocking or surprising. The woman is an icon, fer cryin’ out loud.  The other part of Sherri’s equation is the other contestants. The important thing to remember is BOTH sides of the equation…it’s not that they might be getting more votes than Sherri at all. She might have been getting similar numbers  of votes as all of them, BUT because she had a lower score, it’s not enough to get “the same” number of votes as everyone else, she had to get MORE. That’s what I’m talking about every week in my numbers posts. She has to cover the spread and beat it by a vote.  And this week, that was 4,300 votes to surpass either William, Jaleel or Melissa – the next closest competitors.

Let me explain it another way: say that Melissa gets 10,000 votes on Monday night and Gladys knocks it out of the park, getting a ton of votes. In order for Sherri to stay, she would have had to get 14,300 votes. Period. It’s that simple, really.  If Sherri is getting MORE votes than Melissa, she can still go home if she doesn’t cover that spread. If Melissa is getting 10,000 votes and Sherri gets 14,000, Sherri still goes home.  Now, the reason why the judges are actually important and why it’s important that they do their job well is because the voters don’t do that good of a job either.  I don’t find it impossible to believe that Sherri was getting more votes than several dancers…just not ENOUGH more. If that makes sense. 🙂 THIS is why it’s not a good idea to leave it up to just the viewers or just the judges – they balance each other’s crazy. 🙂 Read more..

April 12, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

PureDWTS Season 14 Las Vegas Odds For April 12th: Do you agree with the odds makers?

We’ve got another twist this week in the Las Vegas Odds. According to Las Vegas Sports Betting, William Levy (for the first time) has made a dip to 2nd/3rd place (for however you want to read it) compared to first place in previous weeks since the season started. They’ve tied Katherine and Donald in a strong 1st position. Maria is in a 3rd/4th place postition with close to same odds that she had last week….

Donald Driver 2/1
Katherine Jenkins 2/1
William Levy 9/4
Maria Menounos 8/1
Jaleel White 15/1
Roshon Fegan 25/1
Melissa Gilbert 30/1
Gavin DeGraw 75/1
Gladys Knight 100/1

So, what do you think? Do the odds makers have it correct this time? I agree with them for the most part except for Roshon. They are totally underestimating his ability to dance in my opinion. I also think Jaleel needs to be lower on the list. Maria should be ahead of William as well. Let’s get my girls Heidi and Courtney’s thoughts? Be sure you let us know your thoughts as well in the comments section.

Heidi: These odds dudes have to be going insane. 🙂  They had William at 7/2 after the first dance (first place) and had Katherine at 7/2.  After the second dance, William shot to 2/1 and now he falls again.  Maria has remained relatively unchanged, but everyone else has been all over the place. And I’m sorry, but if Roshon falls into the bottom 2 with a high score, I sure wouldn’t be saying he’s 25/1.  It’s not just about the dancing!  These guys need to hire us.  What’s really weird is that this is the highest Katherine has ever been…on her worst week. Crack is wack. 🙂

Courtney: I’m just marveling at what a profit these bookies stand to make regardless of the outcome of this season – see, these odds add up to more than 100% (the total probability of of someone winning DWTS), so the percentage over 100% – the “overround” is proportional to the profit the bookie stands to make, based on how much is being staked (betted).  Unless Gladys or Gavin manages to come from behind and win this season, and there was a lot of money being bet on them, these bookies are sitting pretty 🙂 Just a short little peek into the fascinating world of fixed odds betting.  But anywho! I think the oddsmakers are finally starting to calibrate with the rhythm of this season, as these seem to be the most plausible odds we’ve seen from them yet.  I still think they’re overestimating William, and also Roshon – unless they’ve already started to anticipate how the judges might vote in the dance duel, in which case I think they could be more on-the-money.  Based on the judges’ critiques, I’m guessing those two will probably both spared by the judges, should they fall into the bottom 2 – unless it’t with Katherine, Maria, or each other. It will be interesting to see how the odds change after the first dance duel next week – the judges’ behavior could throw the odds into a tailspin. It’s something the oddsmakers haven’t really had to take into account for awhile.

I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Weeks 1 thru 4 Scorecard

So I’ve been asked a few times if I would do a scorecard of my predictions up to this point since about a third of the season has gone by. I figured: “Why not?” It would be interesting to see just how off the calculated predictions are.

To get started if you noticed there are the initials “P – A – D” this is simply: “Predicted – Actual – Difference”
– Predicted: this is the original calculated predicted scores
– Actual: this is the score that the celeb/pro pairing actually received on the show
– Difference: is the point difference between the predicted and actual scores

So lets look at Week 1:

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April 11, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS14 Week 4 Interviews After The Elimination, Next Week’s Latin Dances Revealed (Videos)

George Pennacchio of On The Red Carpet interviewed some of the couples last night after the elimination. He gets their thoughts on Sherri and Val. He also asks them on their comfort zones and next week’s “latin” dance. Let’s see what he found out….

First, Peta and Donald tell George it’s just “crazy” and “awful” for how Sherri was eliminated. Peta is sad and tears it up. It could be anyone to leave including them. It’s Latin week next week and they have the Argentine Tango. They are going to work hard. Donald is ready for the challenge in getting out of his comfort zone as always.

Maks explains what happened Monday night when Melissa got hurt. At this time, he doesn’t know how he is going to approach their upcoming dance and future. He questions everything and doesn’t want to hurt her. He also talks of Val and Sherri’s elimination and feels sorry for them. He says Val feels like it’s his fault and feels bad for them.

Roshon says he had no idea he’d be at this level on Dancing With The Stars. He’s learning so much and hopes to keep doing so. They talk of how hard it was to see Sherri go. Next week’s dance for these two will be the Salsa. Chelsie wants to refine his salsa technique. It will be sexy. They are going for 10’s next week as they never want to be in the bottom two again.

Katherine is glad she was able to get out of her comfort zone this week and it was one of the best experiences ever. The Argentine Tango is their next dance. Katherine is the most excited about learning this dance. Mark says he hopes to tell a very passionate story and keep it straight edge. They have nothing but kind words for Val and Sherri.

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I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.

SPOILERS!!! DWTS Season 14, Week 4 – Who Got the Boot??

Well, Tom warned us it was a shocking elimination, that’s for sure.  I predicted they would call Gavin safe very early. Just sayin’. 🙂 That’s the only thing I got right tonight, but it’s something.

Eliminated in the fourth week?  Sherri and Val. Shocker. Not from a number standpoint…from a popularity standpoint.

Here are our predictions for who was going home:

Heidi: After a good bit of waffeling, I predicted Jaleel going home with either Melissa or Gladys in the bottom two with him.

Courtney: Had Gavin in her bottom spot in the power rankings, along with Melissa.

John: Called Jaleel on Twitter…AFTER I posted my numbers. Cheater cheater pumpkin eater. 😀

We were ALL wrong.

Anyway, Roshon in the bottom two and Gladys safe…do you know how many votes Gladys had to get?? An assload more than Roshon did, that’s for sure. To be precise, 27,500 votes more per million votes cast. Now that doesn’t necessarily mean Gladys was getting a ton of votes…it might just mean that that Roshon was getting none.  I may just do a post on this elimination so that people understand what it took.

I would be lying if I said I wasn’t hoping for a different person to be eliminated. I’m not a Sherri fan, but she LOVED this show and everything about it…she appreciated every moment and was obviously happy every week. She is what this show is all about.

I’m unhappy.  I’m imagine I will be unhappy most weeks from here on out. 🙁

 

April 10, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 14, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, well, well….as predicted, the real judges came back to life and gave a few of our couples a little dash of reality. Sherri and William being most notable. Of course, next week is Latin week so I expect William will regain something of his status, since it plays to his strenghts. Sherri too, for that matter.  If both are still around next week…and there is no guarantee.  Didn’t seem to me that William was getting as much love from the audience this week either.  We’ll see.  The benefit of this REAL scoring is that Gavin isn’t at the bottom of the score board and we know he’s been in the real bottom two the last two weeks…so now we will REALLY see who the other weak links are. 🙂  I also get the sense that Gavin is gaining in popularity – I LOLed at his “Absolutely not” in answer to Brooke’s question about if he did enough to stay out of the bottom two. I can’t be the only one who is finding him totally endearing.

Let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Donald  27 11.59
2. Maria  26 11.16
2. Roshon 26 11.16
4. Katherine 24 10.30
5. Gavin 23 9.87
6. Melissa 22 9.44
6. William 22 9.44
6. Jaleel 22 9.44
9. Sherri 21 9.01
10. Gladys 20 8.58

Despite what some fans were claiming on twitter, we actually have a real live spread this week between the high and low scores.  Now, our bottom position is Gladys…and I just don’t have a feel for how she’s doing with the voters. She is sooo amazing and sweet…but her dance was a bit of a train wreck. So what does Gladys need in order to stick around? She needs ONE of the following things:

–          Gladys needs 4,300 more votes per million votes cast than Sherri, OR;

–          Gladys needs 8,600 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER William, Jaleel or Melissa, OR;

–          Gladys needs 12,880 more votes per million votes cast than Gavin, OR;

–          Gladys needs 17,170 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;

–          Gladys needs 25,760 more votes per million votes cast than either Maria or Roshon, OR;

–          Gladys needs 30,050 more votes per million votes cast than Donald.

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I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing With The Stars 14 Week 4 Media After The Dance Part 2 (Videos)

How is your Tuesday going so far? I hope super. Do you need some more interviews after last night’s dance? If so, here we are again with a recap and a review from Good Morning America with Cameron Mathison and Carson Kressley. Carson picks Gladys or Jaleel to go home which I totally agree with and hopefully, it’s the latter. 😯

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Louis Van Amstel also reviewed the night in a new blog for Good Morning America. He is the most worried for Gladys tonight. I think he is wrong about Donald and Peta. They deserved more than a 7 and two 8’s. No way did Gavin deserve three 8’s, but hey. 🙂 See if you agree or disagree with him?

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I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.

PureDWTS Season 14 Week 4 Media After The Dance Part 1 (Videos)

We’ve got lots of new interviews to weed through this morning after this week’s dance. Let’s get right to it with George Pennacchio of On The Red Carpet. George asks the dance couples on their injuries and the new “Dance Off” which starts next week where they have to learn two dances. Note how their is a technical issue with the interview with Kym and Jaleel. Hopefully, they will fix that later. Also, there isn’t an interview with Maks and Melissa since they had to rush her to the hospital after their dance which you can read about in a previous posting here.

First up, Donald and Peta!! George comments that Donald is a “new kind of sex symbol”. They are excited about their performance and to be at the top of the leaderboard. They talk of the ‘dance off’ and how it will come down to “technique” versus the ‘performance’ factor for who would make it in the bottom two. Aren’t their costumes awesome? I love that color!

George asks Maria about her injuries. Derek brings up Melissa and how injuries happen. Maria has a whole new respect for dancers for what they go through physically. They are so excited about their scores. They agree with the “dance off” hoping it will support the better dancers and good dancers don’t get voted off.

Roshon is “burning up” about being called the best male dancer. He’s nervous about the dance off, but, hopes he never is in the bottom two. So far, so good he hasn’t suffered from any injuries. He didn’t know much about Melissa’s injury, but, says she’s awesome and a hard worker.

Cheryl talks of how William stepped on her foot and her shoe wasn’t on right for the rest of the dance just like what happened to Kirstie Alley. William says they are working hard and he wants to continue to be positive. Cheryl isn’t wild about the ‘dance off’ since now they have to learn two dances for next week. William looks at her like she’s nuts. lol

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I Written By

"Dance is the hidden language of the soul" ~ Martha Graham. That's what DWTS makes me think of every Monday night. To read more about me and my other interests, see Lisa Kay Photography. You can also follow me at Voguerista Twitter & Voguerista Soundcloud.

DWTS 14 Week 4 Power Rankings

After tonight, I’m kinda left thinking that “Rock Week” should have been abandoned after the disaster that was “Rock Week” in season 11.  There were a few standouts that I thoroughly enjoyed, but for the most part, the performances ranged from “meh” to just painful to watch…and I have to say, I think rock music is a bit of a punishment for these couples.  Why? Because rock music seems to embody all that is raw & wild – and yet, they have to do these dances with such control & precision.  Of course some of them are going to lose some performance quality – they’re going to look like they’re in slo-mo compared to the music!

One positive to come out of tonight, though: the judges seemed to finally start cracking down and scoring seriously.  Still a bit of overscoring going on, but I think they’ve finally taken off the rose (or vagina) colored glasses and started seeing some of the couples’ weaknesses.  Let’s hope it works to eliminate the couples in a fair fashion!

1.) Donald & Peta – And in week 4, we finally get to see the potential this couple developed in weeks 1-3 really pay off 😀 I could not stop smiling during Donald’s paso, which was the best of the night for me – you could tell he was having the time of his life out there, and his energy was electric.  Loved all the “rock” faces he was pulling – Jimmy Hendrix would be so proud! And in reality, his technique wasn’t too shabby either – paso really seemed to suit him, being the “hunky dunky” football player that he is 😉 And that crazy spin Donald threw Peta into at the end???!!! BRILLIANT.  I think this week just may have taken Donald from “dark horse” to “force to be reckoned with”.  I think this couple is doing everything right – they’re working hard, steadily improving, and maintaining a great chemistry that makes them really likeable.  Plus, I think Carrie Ann has a new crush now – and we know that can’t hurt.

2.) Maria & Derek – Broken foot? Psssh…just spray some Windex on it and walk it off.  That’s the Maria philosophy, and man – if that’s how she does a tango with a broken foot (and some healing ribs), then GIVE ME MORE, dammit! I definitely think Maria had the best tango of the night – clean & controlled, but still with enough impact to fit the song well and put on an entertaining performance.  I just get mesmerized watching the way she moves her torso – she just gets such a nice stretch through her upper body, and those arms just look GORGEOUS.  I know everyone talks about how Katherine’s posture is so awesome, but Maria’s definitely giving her a run for her money.

3.) Katherine & Mark – I think we all knew that Katherine would eventually have an off-week, and this may have been it – I had a hard time believing that our graceful, gorgeous English rose would channel the aggression necessary to really attack this paso head-on.  But I had an interesting problem with her paso, that I didn’t really expect: I actually thought she was better OUT of hold this week, even though many of us have gushed over how great she is IN hold.  It was strange – every time she let go of Mark, the attitude and the sassiness seemed to come out, and I really believed her aggression…loved the stalking walks and cape work with her skirt.  But then she’d reach out and go back into hold with Mark, and seemed to lose a little bit of the magic…plus she seemed to fumble a bit more than usual when Mark brought her in and out of turns.  But for having an “off week”, this was still a pretty damn good paso – never missed steps, and did them all with conviction.  I just hope Mark gives her the chance to really shine on her own in the future, because she did seem to really enjoy her solo work.

4.) Roshon & Chelsie – Truth be told, I started to freak out a bit tonight by how much I found myself agreeing with Carrie Ann – and I agree with her wholeheartedly that Roshon is the best male dancer (in terms of technique!) this season.  I don’t think he’s quite mastered the same athleticism Donald dances with, or the charisma that Jaleel dances with, but I think he’s mastered the technique better than any of the other guys.  And his greatest asset may also be his greatest downfall: his flexibility.  I love how he manages to extend his arms and really move his legs with ease – but I do notice that sometimes he moves a little too fast and somehow gets his feet kinda tangled up, and there’s a bit of a hiccup when he tries to straighten them out.  But man, this kid is impressing me – I think he had the hardest dance to contend with, given that it was Rock week.  What the heck was he supposed to do with such a graceful, flowing dance when everyone else is stomping and kicking around in pasos, tangos, and jives? Granted, the song they gave him was BARELY a rock song (I’m of the opinion that, if you came from American Idol and your name is not Chris Daughtry, you are NOT a rock artist), but I feel like he really attacked the dance head on and gave quite a valiant effort – and the result was lovely.  Now here’s the problem: I have absolutely NO IDEA how he’s doing in terms of votes.  All we know for sure is that he hasn’t been in the bottom 2 so far, and he’s been getting good-ish scores…but is he getting the votes, too? I’m gonna guess that the points spread will keep him safe this week, but I think he’s still gotta appeal to the middle-aged female demographic in order to stick around for awhile. Read more..

April 9, 2012 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, baker, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble.