Dancing with the Stars Season 22, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Okay, once again Von and Antonio have exactly the same score. Am I supposed to believe this is coincidence?? And in WHAT universe is Paige a point behind Ginger?  One where Black Hole Asshattery Judging (tm Susan1) rules the day– that universe.

Oy veh. El stupidos know not what they do…or they do and they don’t care because they WANT a “shocking” elimination. They improved Jodie’s and Kim’s position – but not by enough for it to possibly matter!! And in the process they put a few more people at risk.  When just looking at the leaderboard, it looks fairly innocuous.

DWTS Season 22 wk 5 Table 1

But then you start looking at the matchups and you can see quickly where a big problem might arise. Low man on the totem pole was Doug, who has survived all the way to week 6, so clearly he has something going for him. He’s a beloved sports figure. The only problem I see is that he doesn’t seem to be having fun. People might not vote for you if you don’t seem like you really want to be there. But if they ARE voting for Doug, we could be in for a surprise come Monday night. Why? Check it:

DWTS Season 22 wk 5 Table 2

Now, you might think that 13.5k between Doug and Kim is a good number for Kim…and maybe it is. I don’t know. But if Doug IS killing it, look at how close together Kim, Von, Antonio and Jodie are!!

DWTS Season 22 wk 5 Table 3

Ho-LEE crap. Kim, Von, Antonio and Jodie are all within less than 4k of each other. IF Doug is doing really well – well enough to pass any of these folks – Jodie may be in deep do do. Why Jodie? Well, how many obvious signals does one need to realize that people may not be voting for her?? In jeopardy two weeks in a row and then Maks’ crack about her reminding him of Sabrina – Sabrina the very talented dancer who was a shocking elimination not once but TWICE!! She could be in trouble.

But first, let’s back up and narrow the folks in danger a bit. First, one more table:

DWTS Season 22 wk 5 Table 4

Now, I think that Nyle, Ginger, Paige and Wanya are safe. Doug needs more than at least 20k to get past any of them. On top of that, because they’re at the top of the leaderboard, EVERYONE else would have to get past Ginger and Nyle. I find this to be unlikely – this week. As for Paige and Wanya, even if Doug is getting past them, I very much doubt that all four of Kim, Jodie, Von and Antonio are – but this is why this week is risky. Look at those numbers! For Paige to be eliminated, ALL of the following would have to happen:

  • Doug would have to get 25.2k more votes per million votes cast than Paige, AND;
  • Kim would have to get 11.2k more votes per million votes cast than Paige, AND;
  • Von AND Antonio would have to get 10k more votes per millon votes cast than Paige, AND;
  • Jodie would have to get 8.5k more votes per million votes cast than Paige, AND;
  • Wanya would have to get 3.4k more votes per million votes cast than Paige, AND;
  • Paige would have to NOT get the votes she would need to get past Ginger and Nyle.

These are not big numbers, with the exception of Doug’s – but even those aren’t huge. All that said, I think Paige is going to be okay this week. I think there is at least one person who isn’t doing as well as her and that’s all it takes.

So, if Paige, Ginger, Nyle and Wanya are safe, that leaves us with Doug, Kim, Von, Antonio and Jodie. I *think* that Von and Antonio both have another week in them, thanks to their football fans. Kim needs less than 2k to get past one or both of them, but I just don’t know if that’s going to happen. I don’t think it is. Yet.

That leaves us with Doug, Kim and Jodie…and the news ain’t good. As you see up in table 2, IF Doug, Kim and Jodie are the ones in danger, Doug needs ONE of the following things to happen in order to be safe:

  • Doug needs about 13.5k more votes per million votes cast than Kim, OR;
  • Doug needs about 16.8k more votes per million votes cast than Jodie.

It’s always possible he getting the votes to put someone else in danger from the people above him, but I think Kim and Jodie are the two most likely at this point.

So, let’s say he makes it. Table 3 tells us what it will take for Kim to be safe. She needs ONE of the following things to happen. Just ONE and she’s safe:

  • Kim needs for Doug to NOT get the 13.5k more votes per million votes cast than her, OR;
  • Kim needs to get 1,700 more votes per million votes cast than either Von or Antonio, OR;
  • Kim needs to get 3,400 more votes per million votes cast than Jodie, OR;
  • Kim needs to get 8,500 more votes per million votes cast than Wanya…and so on.

I don’t think she’s probably getting past either Von or Antonio, like I said, but I would not be at all surprised to see her beat Jodie. Both are stars from iconic shows. While Jodie might be a bit more current, she’s dancing with Keo who (IMO) will have a tough time against Sasha. I think Sasha is getting some of Derek’s fans. Other than that, I think the two women are fairly equal on paper.  The fact that they keep begging people (essentially) to vote for Jodie, it seems she needs help. The question is…did it work??

Something else to consider is that Jodie dance a very good dance with Val this past week – his fans may or may not be smart enough to vote for GINGER and not Jodie just because he danced with her. I’m going to lean towards not. I just don’t know if it will be enough. AND, the judges spoke very kindly to Doug, while Maks shredded Keo (insecure, Maks?) and Sasha – I suspect that they got some additional votes because of that shredding.

I still think it will come down to Doug and Jodie.  Based on the judges overall tone when scoring Doug versus Kim and Jodie, I’m leaning toward that influence, plus the votes he needs to get past Jodie and Kim, as being too much for him.

I’ve rewritten this part twice now, but I’m going to lock it in as Doug being the one eliminated on Monday night. What do you think?