Dancing with the Stars Season 26, Week 1 – LIVE BLOG (SPOILERS)

All right all ya’ll – check in if you’re watching this season with us. I don’t want to be all alone here, bemoaning the crap or greatness – take your pick. 🙂

T-minus 15 minutes….

Ooooooo…..interesting and dramatic opening!!

Okay, I loved that in all it’s cheesy glory. 🙂

Chris is cute as hell and has some potential. Not necessarily for dancing but….potential. 😉

Damn. That was a lot of Salsa and a lot of lifts for week 1!!

Close your shirt, Bruno. Chris getting good comments from the judges for the most part.

And he pulls three 7s! Kinda predictable, but worthy.

Kareeeeeeeeem!!! He is the legend and the big name for the main demo for this show. And if anyone can work with this Lindsey can.

Kareem the maypole. 😉 Damn that dude is TALL!!But such rhythm!!

That was cute. I love them. Judges are being kind, but they were right about that rhythm part. That was fun.

He gets a 17. Numbers in a minute.

Okay, here’s how I’m doing the numbers tonight. I put in Chris and Kareem’s scores and the remaining 8 dance spots have a range between 21 and 26 in order to estimate a total number of points giving out by the judges. As dancers dance, I will replace one of those estimates with an actual score. I do this in order to get a feeling for how the dancers have to do in votes in order to survive through the night. So, obviously, the vote totals will change throughout the night until we get to the end.

Gag. I was promised a Chmerkovskiy free season. Stap it.

Anyway, Chris is currently about 20k votes per million votes cast ahead of Kareem.

Next up, Jennie and Keo – she seems very sweet.

I think she has a lot of potential, she just needs to smooth it out a bit. He dragged her in a few spots, but I really like her!

She gets a 21 from the judges which makes the numbers easy. As of right now, Kareem needs 20k more votes per million votes cast to stay over Jennie or Chris. Since two are getting eliminated, this will get difficult later in the show.

Jamie and Artem…who has thankfully gotten rid of the blonde hair…have the V. Waltz. Poor girl. Not a good dance to make a first impression. Artem is dragging her a bit. And this song is stupid as hell for this dance. Jesus, DWTS.

Liked it more toward the end when she got a bit smoother.

Len and Bruno call out the skippy, choppy part – she’s another one with potential.

And she gets a 19!! That’s pretty good.

NUMBERS: Kareem just got a bit of a break. With Jamie getting a 19, he now only needs about 10k more votes per million votes cast to beat Jamie. BUT, since two people are going home, he would have to get 10k more than Jamie AND 20k more than either Jennie or Chris in order to be safe.

NUMBERS 2: If neither Jamie can’t get the votes to pass Jennie and Chris, and Kareem doesn’t get the votes, then both Chris and Jennie will be safe. Right at this moment, I think that Jamie is in big trouble.

I hope Mirai has a big fan base because the valley girl thing is kind of annoying. I’ll give her a chance thought.

Shit. Girl can dance. Of course, she and Adam are the ringers for the season. This girl is Kristi Yamaguchi good. Week 1?? Alan gives her good choreography too, although not sure how Len will feel.

Holy crap. That’s your winner folks, unless she rubs people the wrong way.

Give me a break, Bruno – that was a 9 dance. Nit picky comments from CAI. That girl deserves three times the score the other couples did. Bet she only gets 8s though.

A 7???? CAI, the trying to keep a level playing field agenda is kinda obvious. A 7 on that dance is damn near criminal. She is kinda annoying though, so that will bring her down to earth.

NUMBERS UPDATE: Okay, Mirai *should* be safe at the end of the night, based on the standings right now. Here’s where we’re at:

Kareem needs 10k to pass Jamie, 20k to pass either Jennie or Chris, and 30k to get past Mirai.

Jamie needs for Kareem to not get the 10k and she needs 10k to pass Jennie or Chris and 20k to pass Mirai.

Jennie and Chris will be safe if neither Kareem nor Jamie get the votes to pass them, or they get 10k to pass Mirai (unlikely).

Okay, back to dancing. Arike and Gleb are doing a pretty good job…and she’s so young. She seems to be having a good time and Gleb has given her choreo she seems to like, so she did a good job with it!! That was a fun dance!!

Arike gets a decent 20. Numbers in a minute, but first – Adam. Mirai’s likely only competition.

Okay, Adam and Jenna’s meeting was cute as hell with all the screaming. She’s needs to lay off the spray tan a bit, though. 😉 Okay, I might love him.

Love the wings! Cool. I was worried from the rehearsal video, but he’s doing quite well. Not as good a dancer as Mirai, but much more personable and likeable. And I love the choreo that Jenna is giving him – very funky. And the ending was killer. Jenna will win the choreo battle between the two couples, IMO. He gets some votes from me, I think.

And Adam gets a 24. Like I said, Mirai was cleaner, but I liked Adam so much more!! Mirai got a bit hosed – not that it matters. Both are likely safe.

NUMBERS: Okay, the standings are as follows:

Kareem: Still on the bottom, but it is doable. He needs 10k to beat Jamie, 15k to get past Arike, 20k to beat either Jennie or Chris, 30k to beat Mirai and 35k to beat Adam. I think he can take Jamie and Jennie, at this moment. Subject to change.

Jamie: Needs for Kareem to not get that 10k. If he does, she needs 5k to beat Arike, 10k to beat either Jennie or Chris, 20k to beat Mirai or 25k to beat Adam. She could beat Arike, but I think that’s it for right now.

Arike: She has two people below her, Kareem and Jamie – Kareem might beat her but I don’t think Jamie will. She needs someone else to tank.

Back to dancing….Emma up with Johnny. Johnny is doing pretty well with Emma. Nice choreo from our girl Emma. This is where Jamie and Jennie will be in trouble. Johnny is better known and the male celebs tend to have an easier time of it with the audience. Sometimes. 🙂

This guy has a great smile – very charming and cute kids? The score is critical here for him.

Looking better for Kareem – he needs 4.8k to beat Johnny and 9.7k to beat Arike. This is doable. More in a minute.

Tonya is up next and talking about her skating career ending. This is going to be interesting. I hope she toughs it out.

Love the dress, love the opening. Foxtrot was a good choice for her, I think. Nice move, Sasha – pretty choreo. If nothing else she looks like she’s having fun. BTW, I think they chopped her package for time, and that’s not a bad thing in this case. Anyway, Good job!!

23 for Tonya which might be a tiny bit overstored – but they need her to stick eh?

I’m thinking by virtue of scores, that Tonya, Mirai and Adam are going to be safe.

Kareem: His shot lies with Johnny and Arike…possibly Jennie and Jamie because they are two blondes I feel are lovely but kinda forgettable around everyone else.

Johnny needs 5k, 9k or 14k to beat Jamie, Arike, or Chris/Jennie – and for Kareem not to get the 5k to beat HIM – in order to be safe. I think, like Kareem, his best shot lies in beating Jamie/Jennie. But I could be wrong. 🙂

Jamie: needs 5k or 9k to beat either Arike or Chris/Jennie. I dunno. Kareem will likely get the votes to pass her.

Arike: She needs Kareem to not get the 14k to beat her…and I’ve lost track of the other. 🙂 Too many numbers is a very short period of time.

Totally missed Sharna and Josh, but he’s safe with a 24 – that’s how they compensate for the lack of voting time.

I’m thinking that Jennie and Jamie are the two most likely. Of course, Arike is not well known either.

Someone with a J will go home. 🙂

Jeopardy Number 1: Jamie and Artem

Jeopardy Number 2: Johnny and Emma

Jeopardy Number 3: Tonya and Sasha

I’m calling it Jamie and Johnny.

SAFE: Tonya and Sasha. Damn. I’m good. 😉 Okay, so I only kinda called Johnny. But still – numbers on the fly ain’t no easy thing.

Since the phone lines are open to determine who goes home next week, I will be doing a numbers post on wednesday or thereabouts. And no, I don’t think Tonya will be going home. Right at this moment I’m thinking Jennie and Arike. But we’ll see if I change my mind on rewatching the show.

Is this where I say “I told you so” about both Kareem and Tonya?? I think it is…. 😉