DWTS Season 28, Weeks 5 and 6 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I decided to run some numbers this week since no one was eliminated last week and this week’s scores and votes will be added together. We know the dancers a bit now, so I figured I would make some educated guesses on how they’ll do based on what they’re dancing Monday, then add them to this past weeks scores and run the numbers from there. Those with samba (Hannah, James) lost a point or two. Karamo lost a point due to rumba, while Lauren gained four due to contemporary. I also gave Sailor an additional three points because of Jazz. I dipped Ally a couple points because she’s dancing Quickstep this week while she had contemporary last week. Kel dipped a point because of Quickstep as well. I gave Kate an additional three points this week because she’s doing V. Waltz, at which she will likely excel. You know who stayed exactly the same, although he shouldn’t have had a 19 last week. More like a 15. I don’t expect the judges to do better this week, regardless of what good dancer we could lose.

Of course, because our judges have learned absolutely nothing from last season, I fully expect to be way off base in my guesses and some seriously wacky stuff will go down.

Anyway, in my scenario, Ally remains in first place by one point and there is a four-way tie for second place. Lauren moves up, Hannah moves down and Karamo and S___ are still the bottom two, at least score-wise.


Now, as you’ve heard Courtney and I preach ad nauseum. When you add all those scores together, you decrease the margins. But there is ONE benefit, particularly if they score them like I think they will. It doesn’t matter who the top 7 are if the scores are just similar to what I have above. Why? Well, shit gets interesting

Now, as you can see from this rather knarly table above, if the judges score things like this, you have the top 7 all within 7,000 votes per million votes cast from each other. It leaves Sean and Karamo all by themselves with a whole buncha votes they have to get to take out any of the top 7. You say “but S___ won’t be in the bottom two, someone like Kel and/or Sailor will be and he’ll be safe once again.” I say, “ah yes, young grasshopper, but at the halfway point of the competition, they kinda need to have a double elimination. They could have it this coming week and reveal a bottom three or four. At which point, it’s more likely that S___ is in that group and can be eliminated by the judges (probably along with Karamo).” If the bottom four is, for example, Sailor, Kel, Karamo and SS, who are they going to eliminate. Only a bunch of morons would eliminate Sailor and Kel. Ta Da!! See, this is the SMART thing to do. They’ve gotten their (shady, slimy, disgusting) PR from his presence and now he can be safely eliminated. He is easily the worst dancer left in the competition so it’s not like it would be “rigged”. And this dude and his friends have a serious habit of overestimating crowd size – maybe he ain’t getting the votes. 🙂 But YOU gotta vote to make my scenario a reality. See, when NO ONE other than the super fans of a corrupt politician are voting, he wins. In DWTS AND life.

:::sigh::: Of course, we have to rely on judges who aren’t that bright and producers who don’t care that we don’t watch DWTS to see failed, extremely controversial politicians who make Nixon look like a saint. So, am I likely to get this dream scenario to play out? Probably not. But it could happen in the coming weeks when there is nobody but great dancers and S___ left in the competition.

Let’s say that James and Hannah kill the Samba, Lauren and Sailor still do very well with their contemporary and Jazz, and Kel kills the quickstep.  Just for fun, I wanted to look at another set of numbers….

As you can see, James and Ally are now in first place for the night, Kel in second, and a three way tie between Sailor, Hannah and Kate for third place. Lauren is in fourth, followed by Karamo and SS. The difference is, this time, there is more work for SS to do to get past Karamo, and the top three are even more insulated from the bottom.

S___ needs a good bit more votes per million to get past everyone except Lauren (and that difference is negligible), mainly because everyone’s score increased or stayed the same from week 5 to week 6. The first set of numbers had the top 6 roughly 30k or more above SS, while this second set only has the top 5 roughly 30k or or more above him.

In the long run, unless James, Hannah, Kate, and Ally screw up, they should be relatively safe. No, I don’t think they’re pimping Ally, I think they’re more likely protecting her – not to mention she’s done very well so far.  Same for the other 3 – all decent dancers and fun partnerships. Karamo and Kel are likely in trouble regardless of how well they do because both have been in the bottom two before. Lauren and Sailor?? Well, A lot hinges on this week.  I’m not sure what to think about Lauren; on the one hand she has Bobby Bones pimping her every week – but I don’t vote for people Derek tells me to vote for, so I don’t know that Bones’ fans are any different.  And I can’t root for her because I can’t stand Gleb and I don’t want to see him rewarded. Sailor has Val…but both seem lost in the shuffle to me.  I think both ladies need to score well on Monday night.

Heck, maybe they all do except for you know who. Like I said, if no one other than SS fans are voting, any of them could be the bottom. Including the “favorites” on this web site.