DWTS Season 15 Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 7: What Do You Think?
Our apologies for being a little late with the Las Vegas Odds! For some reason, all the betting sites have been later than the norm posting them this week. Is this a sign the odds makers are overly undecided? šÆ I don’t know. None the less, below are Sports Bovada’s odds leading up to Week 7 of Dancing With The Stars. Note how the placements are the same, but, the numbers are tighter in some cases and/or the same or higher in others.
Shawn Johnson 10/11
Emmitt Smith 13/4
Gilles Marini 7/2
Apolo Anton Ono 9/1
Kelly Monaco 10/1
Melissa Rycroft 40/1
Kirstie Alley 66/1
Last week’s Las Vegas Odds going into Week 5 to compare:
Shawn Johnson 1/1
Emmitt Smith 7/2
Gilles Marini 9/2
Apolo Anton Ono 6/1
Kelly Monaco 10/1
Melissa Rycroft 33/1
Sabrina Bryan 50/1
Kirstie Alley 75/1
In my opinion, Apolo should be in second place (or even first?) and Emmitt in third. I don’t think Gilles is going to make the top three like many think. I mean…is his fan base really that big? My Dad (an avid fan to the show for about 4 or 5 years now) keeps asking me who Gilles, Melissa, and Kelly are and that to me is a little telling being he kept asking me who Sabrina was too and the next thing we know and regardless of scores and ability to dance, Sabrina is a goner. I also still think it’s a mistake to underestimate Kirstie in this competition. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her make it to atleast 4th place….that is, if she can still make some strong showings on the dance floor as she has the last couple of weeks.
Lets get Miss Heidi and Court’s thoughts on the new odds and be sure to let us know what you think too in comments….
Heidi: I just don’t get the Emmitt thing. I mean, he’s faded into the woodwork on this this show. Ā Are they basing their odds on how well football players have done in the past?? I agree with Vogue – I really think Apolo should be up at the top with Shawn. Of course, it’s my bias talking when I say I really want Gilles to be the next “shocking” elimination. š As for Shawn – she’s certainly capable of winning it, but I think it depends on if Len keeps it up with his games. Ā He did it with Nicole and it was very obvious as well – but I don’t think that Shawn can afford that sort of game playing in an all star season AND when they throw so many dances into one elimination, reducing the spread significantly. Ā This week is week 7. If history holds true, it’s week 8 when Len finally gives it up. I think he should give it up a bit earlier than normal, but the urge to make it a horse race is overwhelming. Ā Which brings us to Kirstie. Clearly the odds makers aren’t going on a week to week scoring basis because Kirstie is still in the bottom and Kelly is up there in 5th place. I don’t know – I think that (unfortunately) Ā the odds dudes have the bottom three correct, but I ‘m not sure that’s the order they should be in. I guess we’ll see.
Courtney: The Emmitt thing blows my mind – I get it, the guy is charming, but he’s also just been a relatively ho-hum dancer this season, who’s been ending up at the middle-to-lower end of the scoreboard pretty consistently.Ā He hasn’t done anything that has shown me that he’s suddenly a contender for the MBT.Ā And while the NFL fanbase is considerable, I don’t see it overtaking the Olympian fanbase.Ā And I’m not sure why Apolo’s odds dropped and Gilles’ rose, in a week where Apolo got a perfect score (and lavish praise from the judges) and Gilles performed a bizarre, androgynous dance that left the judges kind of puzzled.Ā Unless the oddsmakers are playing into the same fallacy that so many viewers seem to be playing into: that “in jeopardy” and “in the bottom 2” mean the same thing.Ā Couldn’t be further from the truth – for all we know, Apolo could have been the highest vote-getter last week, but hey, somebody’s got to be in jeopardy.Ā As for those hanging out at the bottom – I don’t think Kirstie’s going to get to the finale, or even the semifinals.Ā Sorry kids – but I don’t see her faring well in fusion dance, and I’m anticipating she’ll be first out in the marathon dance; as for next weekĀ – she’s likely going to end up with one of the waltzes (if it’s Viennese, she’s a goner, methinks) and the trio dance…and I’m not sure those dances really favor her, either.Ā Plus she’s the only contestant left that we know for sure has been in the bottom 2.Ā I think she’s probably going to be part of the week 8 double elim – and it’s going to beĀ a toss-up on who joins her there.Ā Maybe Melissa, maybe Kelly, hopefully Gilles.Ā Lord knows how anyone else is faring in the votes.
I agree that Apolo should be at second, (not first), still think this is Shawn’s to lose.
Agree that emmit is too high, but somehow I think he has a change for the third finale spot.
I saw this post yesterday in a forum:
Celeb search comparison – past 90 days – highest to lowest.
1. Shawn Johnson
2. Kelly Monaco
3. Kirstie Alley
4. Bristol Palin
5. Sabrina Bryan
6. Emmitt Smith
7. Melissa Rycroft
8. Apolo Ohno
= Gilles Marini
Looking at just the past 30 days it shuffles to 1. Kelly Monaco. 2 Shawn Johnson 3. Kirstie/Bristol 5. Sabrina 6. Melissa R. 7. Gilles 8. Emmitt 9. Apolo
I also did a search of all celebrities in season 15 for searches over the past 12 months. I found it funny that lo, this many years later Pamela Anderson is still WAY, WAY more searched for than any of the other celebrities.
Celeb search comparison over past 12 months
1. Pamela Anderson
2. Shawn Johnson
3. Kirstie Alley
4. Bristol Palin / Kelly Monaco
6. Emmitt Smith
7. Apolo Ohno
8. Melissa Rycroft / Sabrina Bryan
10. Gilles Marini
11. Joey Fatone
12. Drew Lachey
13. Helio Castroneves
Finishing up, I did a comparison of searches on the pros for the past 12 months.
Pro dancers – most searches past 12 months
1. Derek Hough
2. Karina Smirnoff
3. Cheryl Burke
4. Maksim Chmerkovskiy (most search for him as Maksim, rather than Maks)
5. Mark Ballas
6. Peta Murgatroyd / Kim Johnson
8. Chelsie Hightower
9. Tristan Macmanus
10. Val Chmerkovskiy (most of his searches are with this name rather than Valentin)
11. Anna Trebunskaya
12. Louis Van Amstel
13. Tony Dovolani
Still, at this point only a miracle will take the trophy away from shawn and Derek, even their fan twitter page has 5,542 followers.
It would be so romantic if Peta & Maks’s celebs get voted off in a double elimination together.
Yeah, the Apolo Google search,especially last 30 days, looks pretty disturbing.
Sherry, it would awesome, I’m really hoping that Kirstie and Gilles will go next.
#2 HAHAHAHAHAAHAAAHAAAAHAAAA…luuuuv that^^^^^^^^ !!!!
It’s even more disturbing that some other LV odds this week predict Gilles as a winner and Apolo taken 4th place.
I think a LOT of people have difficulty understanding the difference between “bottom two” and last to find out their results. If doesn’t seem very complicated but apparently it is, based on the majority of the news stories. That could explain some of the odds.
Not sure yet of how the postings are done. I am leaning toward Vogue did this post????? If so thanks for the post?? Still learning the methods on this site.
With that said:
I think Gilles is too high; he is forgetable this season. I do not enjoy Gilles or his pro.
Kirstie is long overdue to go also. Seen her sameness enough.
As the odds go, I would give them different odds.
But then I didn’t want Chelsie to leave the season or paired with Helio either.
All I want to say for now.
I am thinking that maybe the Google searches and the twitter followers and things like that go hand in hand, meaning the average DWTS viewer demographic does NONE of the above.
My next question is Emmitt who? He has faded into the woodwork, it’s midseason and I barely remember that he is on the show.
I still think Apolo is killing it in the votes, I don’t think that Shawn is a shoe-in for the win, for all we know she may not be doing as well as some may be thinking…. That’s the scary part, We really don’t know how well ANY of the contestants are doing in the voting.
Sheery and Laila:
We’ve been saying this about Kirstie and Gilles for how many weeks now?
Tired of the disappointments of those 2 not leaving so I stopped wishing for that!
Karen: That has nothing to do with the odds makers, they don’t care how Tom says it, they have their own methods and it is by the numbers.
I did say all for now then some people post right after I clicked submit
Ok Off now for other activities
Sweepster, I don’t think you realize how jerky you come off sometimes when you post. And I don’t think you can rule out how the oddsmakers create their numbers – I think they’re just as dumb as some of the viewers when it comes into the great “bottom 2 vs. in jeopardy” charade, and it probably does fool them into thinking some are in more trouble than they really are. Enjoy the rest of your activities.
Thanks Sandy for reiterating what I said in another thread by accident – that Google searches don’t mean sh*t in the great scheme of things. Just like YouTube hits and Twitter followers, they do absolutely NOTHING to indicate how the average viewer is voting. We’ve said it before: the average viewer doesn’t spend a lot of time on the internet, either voting or scouring for news on their favorites or following them on Twitter or watching them on YouTube. The 3rd, 4th, and 5th most searched names on the list are either already gone or have been in the bottom 2 at least once. Everyone below that is still here. You may as well find a voodoo lady and have her start forecasting the show with chicken bones, because that’s probably going to be a better indicator of who’s getting the votes than Google.
In following the theme that was taking place last results show of TPTB going from the *Lowest to the Highest Score*, then Apolo was inevitably placed in the top spot with Sabrina, therefore automatically dealing him the Jeopardy card. Hope so, anyway. š
Posted in the wrong place, sorry
Sandy and Courtney I agree that based on the demographics of the show, google search or youtube hits donāt mean much or anything sometimes, Twitter followers even last (Kim K.).
But I do think that in some cases it says the obvious, Like if you are doing really well in the show, and people already know that you and your partner have a big fanbase, you won and your partners won three times, I doesnāt surprise that they are pretty much the most searched pro and celeb and also have the most hits on youtube by a long mile.
But again, I agree that in the overall results of who win or who gets eliminated they donāt mean sh*t, because if people donāt vote you are going to win, and is so much easier to watch a youtube video than vote.
Laila, I would argue this: what do people use Google for more? Searching for info on someone they already know…or searching for info on someone they’ve never heard of? Food for thought.
Courtney- you made your point, but I will respectfully agree to disagree this time.
Cheryl Burke ā@CherylBurke
We dance second tomorrow!! Make sure u guys tune in from the beginning of the show to see our Rumba/Samba fusion..
I think that you can judge NOTHING on twitter followers OR on Google searches. I think twitter followers MIGHT be an indication of relative popularity – but only if the person in question isn’t buying followers like we know that Cheryl and Karina have done. So, sorry, nope.
As for google….I google Derek several times a day because I run a website. But most people don’t run websites. It’s a sign of some sort of interest…but no judgement can be made in ANY direction. You can’t logically say that they are googling because they are unknown and you can’t logically say they are googling because they are a favorite. There is no way to measure that. And it’s clearly not tied to how people vote.
And to add to the googling stuff, you dont’ know if the people have their Google Search personalizations turned on or not.
Honestly, the most I used Googling for are… Aches and pains, cleaning my stovetop (Which was my latest), and How to Bake Something….
Like I said, I don’t think google search means vote, what I said was that I’m not surprise that they are up in the google search since I do believe they are very popular and that they have the most hits on youtube overall. It might not mean that they are getting a ton of votes but It doesn’t hurt either.
Twitter is probably the worst in this case, Gilles got 40k followers in less than a week because apparently ABC (family) putted his twitter name on screen during the show on tv, the guy was begging for new followers since dwts started and he wasn’t getting none, even with tickets offering. And like Heidi mention there is always buying new followers.
The Vegas oddsmakers probably don’t care enough to do a lot of research. Maybe I’m way off base here, but compared to all the sports, I can’t imagine there’s much money at stake on DWTS. So there’s no point in spending resources doing a really accurate line on DWTS.
I know I’m biased in favor of Apolo, but I don’t see him 4th or his odds getting longer compared to Gilles after last week. To me there’s no question he and Shawn should be in the finals. The third spot should go to Melissa, in my opinion.
LOL Sandy. That damn stovetop, I’m with you there.
I do agree that by putting people in the bottom two who don’t belong there the show is sending a negative message. A lot of people feel it’s a waste of time to support that couple any more, or may even see them as losers when they’re anything but. It pisses me off big time. I also think the odds makers are swayed by both judges comments and how soon a couple is saved. Gilles and Emmitt have both been treated with kid gloves so I’m not surprised they’re high on the list.
Sheery, the thought of Gilles/Peta and Kirstie/Maks going out in a double elimination is indeed romantic. I don’t have a $300 bottle of wine in the house, but I’d uncork the best I’ve got with a special toast to commemorate the moment.
Do we know the final song selection for Team OhYes yet?
As a matter of fact, we do, Katarina. š
LOL
I kinda figured you did, Heidi lol.
Pitting Val against Maks in an elimination would make for an interestinbg last five minutes because we all know how TPTB looooooove the drama. Just a feeling I have. Be it Kelly going or Kirstie. I think they are saving that for when one of them are the bottom two.
What I would like to see to give the viewers some sort of an idea is to either put the highest vote count against the lowest and say one couple is on the bottom and the other has the highest instead of doing the bottom two BS or call them safe in order of highest vote count to an actual bottom two.
Katarina, His song is posted now. š
Sorry but I hate to see a champion win the second time. It is what people vote for so have to accept outcome.Life is that way.But I will always love the dancing and enjoyed from DWTS ONE. Thanks Hope it is a big surprise. I like them. Happy faces to all,Annie
#21 laila A week or so ago Gilles tweeted in the morning about hitting 80,000 followers. By lunchtime he had over 114,000 followers. I don’t think 30,000 new followers in a few hours came from his Twitter name being put on TV.
Annette, if Gilles weren’t being such a douchebag this season, I wouldn’t mind him winning. That and I really DON’T think he’s that great of a dancer. That Bollywood number was atrocious and the Team Gangnam Style dance wasn’t much better! Kirstie is a great person but she’s no dancer either. I give her props for going for it at her age but a dancer she’s not! Melissa is so nice and a pretty good dancer but alas, I don’t think she’s got much of a fanbase for her to win this.
I agree that I think this is Shawn’s to LOSE!
I might be in the minority, but I feel the all-stars should have been best of the best…champs. If they couldn’t get enough winners to sign on… then contact finalist, but not Bristol, Marie O., Kirstie types. No way I would have added Sabrina or Pam. What they should have done was plan for a “second chance” season….people like Brandy, Erin, Evan,. Mya, Chelsea, Sabrina, Kyle, Ralph, etc.
Well first I google Derek at least once a day, mostly I rely on Heidi…but just for fun I do and it is because I am interested, very interested…”) lol
Now interesting point I learned on one of the news channels…they did a historical survey and determined that Las Vegas Odds Makers were much more likely percentage wise to choose the correct winner for the Presidential election…way more likely than the most popular polls like Gallup, Rasmusson…etc. What I don’t know if they spend the same kind of time on the DWTS issues or if they use the same formula…but it is food for thought. Frankly, I thought it was funny they were better at it than the polls.
The oddmakers must be evaluating fan bases as well as dancing on the show. Otherwise, there is no reason for Melissa’s odds to be so long, especially compared to Gilles. She’s not been in the bottom two, and she’s gotten high scores from the judges. And, she’s lasted this long!
I still think that Apolo will finish higher than Gilles. I’m still expecting a Shawn, Apolo, and Emmitt final three, as I have since the cast list was announced. I’ll be surprised if Gilles makes the finals.
Interesting, the odds. I really can’t make an opinion about this matter because I live in the UK, don’t know most of the stars apart from Shawn,Apollo, Kristie. But I was in the USA for the Shawn season and I then got to knew Melissa and Gilles.
I actually was rooting for Shawn and Melissa to be the final two.Even though I didn’t knew Melissa I really liked her partnership with Tony. And I was hoping also for Lil Kim with Derek in the finals.
I never like Gilles, I can’t put my finger on it why? But obviously I can see why people wanting him to win.
If I recalled that season was the one who attracted viewers? I don’t know if I’m correct though.
For me is going to be between Shawn and Gilles again. I would love to see Shawn and Apollo final two. Not sure about the third spot though.
People vote for different reasons, the partnership who sell the dance and their chemistry in the end of the day will get the votes no matter the scores. Despite the followers on twitter or Facebook,the average viewers of the program are the ones who will determine the outcome. Jr Martinez is an example of that, if you went to his twitter account he didn’t have too many followers but he won.I recalled a yt clip see him in the bottom two? But he won the series.
I got a little disappointed when that guy from the dancers junkie says Gilles should won in his series. I understand the dancers like us has their favorites but I found not professional to made that kind of comments.
Sheery #2 “It would be so romantic if Peta & Maksās celebs get voted off in a double elimination together.”
Hee, hee, hee. You’re very funny lady! Had me laughing. š
Vegas odds predict chanes of winning not wich week couples get eliminated, I think.
*chances
Then go away, Elissa.
Full moon??
LOLLLL