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DWTS Season 20, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, there’s not much to discuss tonight, actually. Riker and Rumer are currently tied for first place, with Noah 8 points back. I full expect that Noah’s deficit will get larger after their dance tomorrow night which brings it down to Riker and Rumer. The scores??

Finale Table 1

When all is said and done, for Noah to win, he needs to get about 35,000 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH Riker and Rumer. Now, bigger deficits have been over come in the past, but never in the finale. I don’t think Noah makes it. Now, it’s possible he could take second place instead of third, for sure. But I don’t see him winning, as much as I would love that to happen.

That leaves us with Riker and Rumer. The margin is ONE vote. Will Riker pull it off? Well, he should. Seriously, how non-creative and unimaginative could Val get by simply doing a good Argentine Tango? For that reason alone he should lose. Like Riker’s freestyle or not, it was a risk, it was different, it was a FREESTYLE.

The problem that Riker has is that his fans seemed to be (like many younger fanbases) consumed with twitter and winning the encore dance. HUGE mistake, as I tried to tell them. Has anyone won the encore freestyle AND won the trophy?? I think Kellie might be the only one. The PLUS that Riker has is that Derek fans seemed to be pretty solidly behind him. That said – how likely are you to power vote for someone who isn’t your first choice? Not that likely. I’m sure he got lots of votes from them, but it’s unlikely to be Derek’s fanbase at full strength, especially since they’ve had a week to cool down.

Rumer? I really like this girl a lot, but her pro let her down. That as a freestyle was a total creative cop out and that’s a real shame. He played it very, very safe and I can’t believe none of the judges called him on it. Rumer’s plus said is that she’s been pimped to high heaven and a large percentage of the voting audience could be called sheeple. Add in all the bought and paid for media since the beginning of the show and Riker has an uphill battle.

At the end of the day, I can’t even make a prediction. It’s too close to call. I change my mind every five minutes.

What to look for….well, Riker winning the encore would be a bad sign, historically. Riker getting hosed on the third dance is an interesting sign. It could mean he had the votes. But the judges tend to score that dance after the voting on a level playing field. I don’t think, historically, that they want to change the outcome with their scores. Let’s just see if they still do. What has Rob Wade dictated they do?

I’m interested in seeing who wins. If Riker wins, it will be a hard fought battle by a good dancer with an uphill fight. If Rumer wins, it will be a highly pimped win by a great dancer with the worst choreography from a winner probably in the history of the show. Or at least the last 10 seasons or so, considering that the choreography game has been upped every season.

Until now.

May 19, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, there’s only one thing I’m reasonably certain of – Noah will make the finale. He might even win the whole damn thing and I wouldn’t be upset by that. Sharna (and CAI) did some amazing work last night. Just amazing.

As for the rest? Nastia had, by far, the strongest night of the remaining three – not that that means anything with this show. She’s handicapped by Derek…but possibly helped by his injury and that absolutely beautiful, tear jerking V. Waltz with Derek and Len. I cried. A lot. Something about a man Len’s age confessing he can no longer do what he loves. :::sob:::

Riker came in a very close second to Nastia for me. His first dance was absolutely fantastic – just amazing. The judge’s choice was really not that good. Too much Julianne…who couldn’t devote enough time to it to do it justice. Which is a shame, really, because Riker is a good, entertaining dancer.

Rumer had two good, solid dances but they suffered from the over hype (as is typical) by Val. It wasn’t all that, babe. I don’t even remember her first dance. Her second dance was a bit of a letdown. Interesting concept by Bruno, but I don’t think it served them that well. Both were well danced, as usual, but well danced doesn’t cut it in a semi-final where there is so much emotion.

But, all that said, the scores are close enough that anyone (except Noah) could be going home. I was surprised that they actually scored the first round fairly, handing out scores that I would have handed out. Shocking. But the two points that Rumer is down may not be enough to protect Riker or Nastia. It’s too close to call. If the weakest dancer last night went home, it would be Rumer. Not that she’s weak…but I think the other three had it over her. But something tells me that they’ve successfully brainwashed the audience into voting her into the finale. Out of Riker and Nastia, I tend to give Nastia the edge. But who knows? Let’s look at the leader board.

DWTS 20 wk 9 Table 1

Argh. Annoying that they gave everyone a 30 in the second round, when I think that neither Riker nor Rumer really deserved it. But, as they often do when it’s close, they throw it to the audience to make the decision. Something tells me they won’t make the right one this time around. We’ll see.

So, Noah is at the bottom of the leaderboard. Although I think he did an amazing, truly inspirational job this season, last night was the topper – but all that said, I would rather Rumer, Riker and Nastia go to the finale.  That ALSO said, I won’t be upset with whoever goes home tomorrow night. I got Derek for ten weeks regardless….and I have a feeling that maybe the producers have finally pushed him too far, so we might not see him on this stage again.

I digress. What does Noah need to make the finale?? Not much.

DWTS 20 wk 9 Table 2

That’s really nothing at this stage of the game and I think he makes it easily. I could be wrong. It’s always possible that one fan group or another gets over confident, or another fan group seeing that proposal knows they could be screwed.

Next is Rumer. Rumer is two points ahead of Noah and two points behind Riker and Nastia. Again, not a lot of work required for her to be safe.

DWTS 20 wk 9 Table 3

For Rumer to be safe tomorrow night, she needs ONE of the following things to happen:

  • Noah fails to get the 7,300 votes per million votes cast to beat her, OR;
  • Rumer gets 7,300 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Riker or Nastia.

That’s it.  And I have no idea what will happen. For me, Rumer was the least memorable last night. She kinda faded into the woodwork. But they have a media machine going for them, in addition to the lion’s share of the actual show last night.

For Nastia or Riker to be safe tomorrow night, they need ONE of the following to happen (same rules apply to each of them since they are tied):

  • Noah fails to get the 14,600 votes per million votes cast to beat him/her, OR;
  • Rumer fails to get the 7,300 votes per million votes cast to beat him/her, OR;
  • One of them gets ONE MORE vote per million votes cast than the other.

No idea what’s going to happen.

But I have to make a guess. I think that Noah is passing Rumer and Riker for sure. Not so sure about Nastia, as she had the great Len tribute dance at the end of the show.  I think Noah is safe.

That leaves me with the other three. Based purely on demographics, I lean toward Nastia getting the one vote needed to beat Riker. Does Rumer get past her? Hard to say, but based on last night I would say no.  I *THINK* Nastia might be safe. But the other half of me thinks that Derek is too big a liability these days. I can’t decide.

I tend to think that Nastia gets the one vote over Riker. That would bring us down to Riker and Rumer. Rumer was more consistent last night, but Riker had the more exciting first dance. I kinda feel like the second dance let Riker down a bit. While I wasn’t overly impressed with Rumer’s second dance, I feel like it was better executed that Riker’s.

Honestly, I’m leaning toward Riker going home tonight but it could be ANYONE. I won’t be surprised by whoever it is.

One more week until Heidi can read books and sleep. :-D Until MOVE Live on Tour starts up, anyway. ;-)

 

 

May 12, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, like I predicted last week, the judges made a clear difference between the top three and the bottom two, with Noah hovering somewhere in the middle. This should be a slam dunk for the top three, but I heard something that made me wonder. Tom was very clear that everyone should make note of Rumer’s number and make sure they were dialing it right. “Check that number and dial carefully.”  Interesting.

Anyway, let’s look at the leaderboard weeks 7 and 8. Read more..

May 5, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

This is very likely a pointless exercise since they’re going to add a ton more points on Monday night, but I thought I would put it out here for discussion.

Right now there is a pretty decent spread between our two bottom dwellers on the leader board, enough that they might actually go home in the double elimination.

DWTS 20 wk 7 Table 1

Right now, Robert and Chris would have a lot of work to do in order to stick around. Now, despite Willow being eliminated, I tend to think they might actually go home this week. What people forget is that it’s not just Robert and Chris getting votes, but perhaps Willow NOT getting the votes.  How bad is it? Read more..

May 1, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers

Interesting week on DWTS. Not sure what their goal was, if there was a goal. I do wonder if Riker is killing it in votes and this is how they give him a narrative and show they were right all along. Conversely, maybe he needs help and this is their way of giving it to him. That said, I really liked his dance a lot. I don’t believe he was a whole 3 points ahead of Nastia – not at all, especially upon re-watching.  Basically, every complaint that Len had about that Tango was BS…I’ve watched the dance several times and I don’t see it.  I would’ve put Nastia up with Riker, Willow is good where she is as is Rumer.  I guess, on re-watching, the only score that hacked me off was Nastia’s.

So, was it because she was so early in the night? That’s twice in the last three weeks that she’s gone either first or second. That’s fair, I suppose, since she had the 8th spot in week 1 and she’s had the pimp spot twice.  Rumer, on the other hand, has only danced in the first few dances once and has been in the last 3 dances three times. Pretty good placing, I’d say.  Riker was in the first four dances three times and had the pimp spot once. Out of the top three, I think Rumer has had the most beneficial placing, BUT, that was then, when there was a lot of low hanging fruit to be picked off. What they do going forward will be more telling. If Nastia and Derek go first or second AGAIN, then I will be pissed. Once upon a time, going first or second mattered less and less as the season has gone along, but nowadays it seems they low ball the first good couple out of the gate. Whether this is intentional or coincidence I have no idea. Read more..

April 26, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Ah where to start this week? Well, I could rant about the judges (or was it just CAI) being total nut jobs in their scoring – towards Nastia and Robert, in particular – but I feel like I’m preaching to the choir and I got it out of my system earlier in the week. Besides, it very likely doesn’t matter that CAI is a complete ass, because I don’t think anyone is touching Nastia, Riker, or Rumer. And probably not Willow either. Although you never know…

DWTS 20 wk 5 table 1 Read more..

April 19, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Here we are, week 4 going into week 5 and the scoring wasn’t too horrendous. There was one glaring error in what was otherwise a relatively decent scoring/ranking by the judges and that was Willow’s 39. Now, don’t get me wrong. I like Willow. I liked the dance. My comments on the dance weren’t on the dance quality but the fact that I had hard time following it with all the other dancers involved.  In terms of dance quality, I defy anyone to convince me (won’t happen) that Willow’s dance was 3 points better than that amazing AT from Nastia or 4 points better than Rumer’s Waltz-ish dance. Was Willow on par with Nastia and Rumer?? Sure, I would buy that. She did a damn good job, in spite of my problems with the production. But 3 or 4 points *better*??  Um, no. Especially when you consider that there are fewer strict rules in a contemporary routine, which means it’s marginally easier to do.  Even if you claim that “Nastia is boring” or “Rumer is one note” that still doesn’t equate to 3 or 4 points difference. Or it shouldn’t. Read more..

April 12, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

Now is when it starts to get real. No more low hanging fruit to be picked off – at least not in my opinion.  This is a week where I start off writing this post really not sure what’s going to happen.  The scoring didn’t seem too crazy – keeping in mind that I missed Michael’s dance and haven’t gone back yet to watch it. The rest of it seems pretty reasonable.  Chris is higher than I expected, so I guess Witney toning down the choreo to his level (which is what you’re supposed to do, really) paid off.  Part of me wonders if the judges thought he was going home and were being kind.  In any case, if I were ranking the couples, this is probably what I would have come up with, based on Monday night. Read more..

April 2, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, DWTS Season 20 Week 2 is in the history books and it was a pretty good week. There was nothing that made me snort in disgust (from the judges, anyway) and a whole bunch of pretty darn good to great dancing.

But, as usual, someone has to go home on Monday night. Last week I was pretty clear when I said “Either Charlotte or Redfoo” and said my number 1 choice for most likely to be eliminated was Charlotte. I was pleasantly surprised to find that she was safe – most likely by 0.10 percent. No, I don’t believe Suzanne was a real bottom 2. For her to be a real bottom 2, it meant that Charlotte got nearly 10k more votes per million votes cast than her and that Redfoo did nearly that much – and there ain’t no way you’re convincing me of that. Nope. I think that’s highly unlikely.

Now, normally, I would automatically assume that Charlotte was definitely the next to go. But I’m not so sure that’s true. Why? Well, let’s look at all the scores. Read more..

March 26, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 20, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

So sorry that this has been much delayed this week – I’m still trying to catch up from my whirlwind trip to New York City. If anyone cares, I saw Book of Mormon, New York Spring Spectacular (twice) and Wicked. All were tremendous. As I was telling someone on Twitter, Derek actually sings as much as he dances in this show and that was a real treat. Great voice on that boy.  My favorite line from the very sacrilegious Book of Mormon??  “Jesus thinks you’re a dick.”  OMG, I laughed and laughed and laughed. Read more..

March 22, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)