Well, there’s not much to discuss tonight, actually. Riker and Rumer are currently tied for first place, with Noah 8 points back. I full expect that Noah’s deficit will get larger after their dance tomorrow night which brings it down to Riker and Rumer. The scores??
When all is said and done, for Noah to win, he needs to get about 35,000 more votes per million votes cast than BOTH Riker and Rumer. Now, bigger deficits have been over come in the past, but never in the finale. I don’t think Noah makes it. Now, it’s possible he could take second place instead of third, for sure. But I don’t see him winning, as much as I would love that to happen.
That leaves us with Riker and Rumer. The margin is ONE vote. Will Riker pull it off? Well, he should. Seriously, how non-creative and unimaginative could Val get by simply doing a good Argentine Tango? For that reason alone he should lose. Like Riker’s freestyle or not, it was a risk, it was different, it was a FREESTYLE.
The problem that Riker has is that his fans seemed to be (like many younger fanbases) consumed with twitter and winning the encore dance. HUGE mistake, as I tried to tell them. Has anyone won the encore freestyle AND won the trophy?? I think Kellie might be the only one. The PLUS that Riker has is that Derek fans seemed to be pretty solidly behind him. That said – how likely are you to power vote for someone who isn’t your first choice? Not that likely. I’m sure he got lots of votes from them, but it’s unlikely to be Derek’s fanbase at full strength, especially since they’ve had a week to cool down.
Rumer? I really like this girl a lot, but her pro let her down. That as a freestyle was a total creative cop out and that’s a real shame. He played it very, very safe and I can’t believe none of the judges called him on it. Rumer’s plus said is that she’s been pimped to high heaven and a large percentage of the voting audience could be called sheeple. Add in all the bought and paid for media since the beginning of the show and Riker has an uphill battle.
At the end of the day, I can’t even make a prediction. It’s too close to call. I change my mind every five minutes.
What to look for….well, Riker winning the encore would be a bad sign, historically. Riker getting hosed on the third dance is an interesting sign. It could mean he had the votes. But the judges tend to score that dance after the voting on a level playing field. I don’t think, historically, that they want to change the outcome with their scores. Let’s just see if they still do. What has Rob Wade dictated they do?
I’m interested in seeing who wins. If Riker wins, it will be a hard fought battle by a good dancer with an uphill fight. If Rumer wins, it will be a highly pimped win by a great dancer with the worst choreography from a winner probably in the history of the show. Or at least the last 10 seasons or so, considering that the choreography game has been upped every season.