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Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Okay, after being out of town for a few days, I finally got to watch the whole show. My thoughts…in a bullet list. :-)

  • Geez, all that brouhaha over Julianne’s comments and that was it?? She qualified the crap out of it and said she loves Maks but…. Really, I was expecting harsher, after all the discussion here.
  • Candace was TOTALLY hosed. And I mean totally. That was a very good dance and Tony did a good job with it. WTF is going on here?? Is she being sacrificed on the Meryl alter?
  • Candace’s dance was about a thousand times better than Danica’s, thanks to Maks. Is he EVER going to stop putting all that non-dancing in his choreo? About time he was called on it.
  • LOVED Drew’s dance – Witney got it just right. I’m liking this girl a lot.
  • Read more..

April 13, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Ah, the week of switch up voting. Is someone trying to make me hate this show?? I mean really.  A logical person can look at the voting contest and sense a total clusterf*^k – that the producers will count the votes in which ever of the 6 or 8 ways gives them the results they desire. But I’ll let Courtney go into more detail on that – it just annoys me, as do the Maks/Val fans who insist that Derek fans are only voting to see Derek with Meryl so he can win again. Uh, hello, but I think most Derek fans neither expect nor WANT him to stay with Meryl. I know I speak for a good number of them when I say – we better get Amy back or there will be hell to pay.

Anyway, the switch up is mildly relevant to this post because the voting for it could play spoiler in one couples hopes for the mirror ball trophy. I always wonder if fans who do the twitter voting are good multi-taskers.  I know I am, but Vogue says it’s cuz I’m a Gemini…or something like that. :-D Anyway, there is some serious spamming going on. Like Design a Dance, it’s not the number of fans you have, but how badly those fans want you to win.  And how good they are at Spamming. Actually, that could be said for the whole show.  :-)  So, do we think that someone is going to be a shocking elimination because their fans were too busy tweeting?? Amy? Meryl? Danica? Nene?

I put those four out there because the Derek fans and the C-bros plus Tony fans have been hitting it hard on the twitter vote. Amy has the smallest fanbase on her own, but Derek’s fanbase is the biggest of the pros, judging by Twitter followers.  I would hazard that Meryl is safe, but it’s possible any of the other three could be a victim, I suppose.

But let’s look at the scores and see just how likely that is.

Week 2 Table 1

Dang, they put a huge spread between Billy Dee and the next lowest group comprised of Nene, Drew and Candace.  The judges REALLY want to get rid of him. Well, he was not a great dancer. Entertaining, but not great. And oh my gosh am I developing a straight girl crush on Emma or what? She impressed the hell out of me in her work with Billy Dee – seriously, she’s fantastic.  Anyway, I think the judges have finally realized that if they believe someone is the worst dancer, they can’t be whipping out 6s and 7s left and right, they have to get serious. But where they serious enough??  Look at the table below, which gives you all the matchups for week 2.

Week 2 Table 2

You’ll see that Billy Dee needs a seemingly large number of votes to get past either Nene, Drew or Candace – about 24.6k votes per million votes cast. You might remember that he needed nearly 20k to stick around over Diana and Sean last week. What’s another 5k?  Well, I would hazard a guess that Drew and Candance, at least, are a good bit more popular than either Diana and Sean. But just how popular is Billy Dee??  Nene is the one I can’t put my finger on.  Twitter followers is certainly an indication of popularity, but that does NOT always translate into votes on DWTS. In fact, it often doesn’t.

I could be wrong, but I really see the only one vulnerable to Billy Dee  is Nene.  Why? Well, I think that Drew and Candace surely have enough juice to get past Nene and keep Billy Dee away.  But what about the next level up? Cody? Surely Cody has a shit ton of fangirls and he’ll be safe for a while, right? I think so – but note that Nene only needs 4k votes to go by Cody. Since I don’t think that Nene is doing that much better than Amy and Danica in votes, and Billy Dee certainly isn’t, I think those two, along with Meryl and Charlie are certainly safe. James best keep that score up there or he could be in trouble.

Anyway, no sense in drawing it out. I think that Billy Dee is likely to go home. If the Star Wars fans are out in full force, then I think Nene is the one most likely to leave. Candace wouldn’t shock me, neither would Cody since all the talk seems to be Amy/Meryl/Charlie – but I really think it’s going to be Billy Dee or Nene.  Billy Dee first, Nene second.  We find out soon!

March 28, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Heidi’s my name and numbers are my game. :-) Yes, it’s that time of year once again. I’d like to thank the powers that be for one thing: switching around how the eliminated couple is determined makes this much easier to predict. For one thing, I don’t have to backwards guess at what the judges might do next – it doesn’t matter because the viewer votes and the judges scores from the same week (week 1) will send someone home in week two regardless of how well they dance this upcoming week. For another thing, it makes these posts much shorter. Theoretically. :-)  The interesting thing will be is if the judges show a pattern of either extremely over scoring or extremely underscoring the couple going home – either send them out with a bang, or justify their scores ahead of time. Two or three times might be coincidence, but more than that? Hah.

Anyway, for you newbs to this site, this is a series I do every week of every season. Basically, I take the scores for each couple and figure out – using DWTS math – how many votes each couple needs to be safe. Then I guess, based on what I think I know about each couple and their voting needs, who’s going to be safe and who’s hitting the trail.

For those who don’t know…or those who believe the popular myth promoted by TPTB…the judges AND the viewers have an equal role in who stays and who goes. To determine who goes home, the producers take the total number of points handed out by the judges and divide that into each couples score for their percentage of the total.  They then do the same thing for the votes: they divide the total number of votes into the number of votes each couple receives for a percentage. They then add the two together and the couple with the lowest combined “score” is the one who goes home. Fifty percent of the final score is judges and fifty percent of the final score is viewer votes. Easy peasy. ;-)

Take a look at the totals. Read more..

March 20, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 10 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well. As I said last week, if you score normally, and don’t make the margin between the upper tier of dancers super tiny, then you stop having “shocking” eliminations. It only took them ten weeks to figure it out. Or maybe Leah had just served her purpose of getting more famous people in the audience.  Either way, she was eliminated and it didn’t take much for that to happen. Here are the judges scores for both dances – those in grey are my predictions…well, my second set of predictions. :-) I wasn’t sure which way they were going to go with. Glad they selected option number 2. :-)

Table 1

These scores led to the following vote requirements.

Table 2

Note that in week 9, the margin between Leah and Liz was less than 7k votes. This week, when they aren’t over inflating everyone’s score trying to get rid of Bill, Leah needed well more than 17k votes per million votes cast to get to Jack, Amber or Corbin. Here’s what caused her to be eliminated – all of the following happened: Read more..

November 23, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, well, well…sometimes I’m right and I don’t want to be. I said way back when at the beginning of the season that both Christina and Liz were possible early eliminees (along with Brant) but once Christina was gone I had hoped that Elizabeth could make it to the end. Afraid not. She seemed like a nice woman but she just wasn’t getting the votes and her time ran out. She and Christina are the Season 17 equivalent to Kristin and Chynna – only both women lasted longer this season, probably due to better dancing on their part.

Once again we are in a situation of having no real idea of how either Bill or Leah (or any of the rest of them) are doing in terms of votes. It’s a mystery. And it will likely continue to be very interesting because I think Derek had it right when he said that the votes occurring the week before makes it more unpredictable.  Like I said before, last season if you make it through a bad week, you’ve made it through period. But this season, if a bunch of people didn’t like your dance this past week and didn’t vote for you, you have NO chance to redeem yourself – they can’t come out this Monday and do a killer dance such that everyone votes for them and be safe. They can get the great scores, but if people stopped voting for them because their dances just weren’t good last week, then it might not matter. What happened week 8? Well, that’s when Liz changed the choreo at the last minute on Val, against his wishes and it resulted in less than stellar dancing. And clearly, she couldn’t afford that.

Let’s take a look at the scores and the votes needed this past week.

Table 1

Table 2

So, Bill took a step back this week in terms of dancing – will it cost him this coming Monday? What about Amber – everyone knows she’s injured, but what if her time is up? And will they continue to desperately overscore Leah to keep her in the game?? Because, really, when you look at the math it becomes obvious that MAYBE if they had kept it real on Leah, that Liz might still be there.  No one can make a claim, for sure, that their couple is getting a ton of votes because EVERYONE except Corbin beat a margin to get past Liz in terms of votes. Which means she likely wasn’t getting any. Here’s what happened that lead to Liz’s elimination. ALL of the following happened: Read more..

November 16, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

Examples of why immunity may not be a good thing:

  1. Will average fans GET that Amber still needs votes?
  2. After having a solid 3 point lead in the cumulative score, Amber is now tied with Corbin IF they include the dance offs (and marathons) in the cumulative total. They shouldn’t, but…

I think the coming week could be a dangerous one for Amber, but I guess we’ll have to hope that fans are smarter than some on the net clearly believe they are. No names. :-)

I’ve seen quite a few comments about Leah getting propped by the judges – dudes, they fired a shot across her bow the other night by giving her two 8s. That ain’t propped. I think (hope) it was a sign of things to come. I’ve also seen speculation that her scores are meant to justify her place in the finale based on votes. This is a theory that I often toy with and have seen in action. If they were going to do that, though, I don’t think she would have gotten 8s last Monday night at all.  This coming week will be an indication if they’re going to start playing that game. If Bill’s scores suddenly improve? There you go. He may be finale bound. However, another theory I toy with every season is their lulling the audience into a position where an elimination becomes “shocking” – their treatment of Bill Monday night may just qualify for that, as could Amber winning immunity. I guess we have to wait and see, but you heard it here first.  :-)  It worked on me, after all. I had been calling Brant a possible early exit early in the season, but they lulled me out of it.

Anyway, what exactly happened last Monday night? Well, Liz proved that someone is, indeed, voting for her. She was 3 points lower than Brant and covered the spread. They didn’t even put her in danger – that was Jack’s honor. Of course, with the way everything went down with Bill being immediately safe (so immediate that it was on the teleprompter, which means they knew before he danced, I think), I have to believe that no one was voting for Brant. You could argue that such a massive number of people were voting for Bill they just knew – but Liz covering the spread is an interesting little factoid to throw in there to make you wonder. If only one person is beating the spread it’s one thing, but for two of them to do it? Brant wasn’t getting votes, IMO. Liz is someone that I think is in dangerous territory and she better not be only 1 point away from Bill again next week. Could be trouble.  The tables below show where everyone ended up: Read more..

November 9, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

I’ve seen lots of people making the mistaken assumption (again) that Bill must be getting a ton of votes. This is not necessarily true. And it’s not necessarily false. We don’t actually know. All we know is that Nicole WASN’T getting the votes she needed and that Bill and Leah were getting enough to cover the spread. But as I’ve said before, If Nicole got 10 votes, Bill got 15k votes and Leah gets 20k votes does it matter when Corbin is getting 100k votes?? Nope. It just means that Nicole was first to go of the three, instead of second. Follow me?

Anyway, this week was not a major accomplishment by Bill or Leah, IMO. I think Nicole, along with possibly Jack, fall into the dangerous middle of the road territory, not so much in scoring, but certainly in the impact they are having on the show. I’m also wondering if Brant falls into this category, but he hasn’t even gotten close to “jeopardy” in a few weeks now.  Here’s where the scores from weeks 6 and 7 put each of our couples.

Table 1

Ten whole points between Bill and Nicole seems like a lot, eh?? Not so much as you might think. As shown, below, Bill only needed about 15k votes per million votes cast to beat Nicole – that’s not even close to the largest margin beaten on this show (45k, I believe, by Kurt Warner, who was eliminated the very next week). I was saying the same thing then as I am now – don’t count your chickens. Read more..

November 2, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers

The first thing that popped into my head when looking at the numbers was, “Damn, Bill has a shot here.”  Seriously, he really could.  And when they add another 50 – 60 points to each couple, it could get better. But I skip ahead.  The table below shows my estimated scores along with the actual scores.

Table 1

Gee, when all is said and done, the two “shocking” scores are the only ones I wasn’t either on target or very close with – does anyone think this is coincidental?? I don’t. I mean, they weren’t natural or normal, so there you go.

Now, 4 points seems like a lot, between Bill and Jack/Corbin, but it only translates to 13k votes per million votes cast.  That’s a middling number – not low, not super high. Maybe it’s my wishful thinking, but I think Bill can get that over Jack. Probably not Corbin, because I can’t believe they would risk him with a shit score if he wasn’t getting the votes.  Of course, ABC just had a commercial that said something along the lines of “Don’t miss the first minute, or you’ll miss a big announcement” – Linz on twitter saw it and she thinks it’s something about JLo performing, someone else said she might be guest judging – I’m thinking they’re going to have a double elimination surprise. And yes, I know Derek said there wasn’t one – but that’s the whole point of a “surprise” right? My cynical brain says that they didn’t announce it last week or put it in the press release because they wanted to see what the votes looked like first. Which could be bad news for Bill and Jack.   Anyway, let’s look at how the vote requirements stand after the end of Monday’s show. Read more..

October 26, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers PART II

Hey, I totally forgot to account for the Switcheroo Challenge crapola in my last post. It will be rather difficult to account for it in this follow up, since we aren’t really sure how it’s going to work.  Here’s what we know about it:

  • There appears to be two groups, one group comprised of Bill, Liz, Corbin and Jack. Everyone else is in the other group.
  • It is a switched up marathon with 2 rounds.
  • The music will change at least once during the marathon, presumably the style will change as well. I hear three possible styles, but that could just be chatter.
  • You get scored according to how long you last.
  • You don’t know the music or style you will be dancing too, although I presume they were given a list of potential styles.

Despite knowing all those things, we don’t really know how it’s going to work. I’m going to GUESS that it will be TWO marathons – first one group will do it and then the other group will do it. They will score each group like they do the standard marathons, that is the longer you stay, the more points you get. So, if it’s four couples, you can get a 7, 8, 9 or a 10.   Why the groups?? Perhaps it’s easier to judge…perhaps it’s easier to stage…perhaps they have TWO people they need to give the extra points to. :-) But as we know, more points handed out is not necessarily a good thing. Read more..

October 20, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Sorry for the delay this week, kids. Extremely busy at work to the point where it will be lucky if I move this weekend. Lots to talk about, so let’s get on with it…

The week of the not-so-shocking elimination. As I’ve said a few times, Courtney and I have been calling this elimination since nearly the start of the show. At first we said it would be either Elizabeth or Christina and then in the last week or three we’ve been thinking Christina, for a variety of reasons. My thinking was that they were both good dancers that weren’t connecting as much with the audience. In addition, they’re of a similar type: good body, good to really good dancer, pretty, not too old but not incredibly young, average to smallish fanbase.  The show can only support ONE of this type and I think we’ve seen that in the past.

  • Kristin and Chynna in Season 13, eliminated 3rd and 4th
  • Audrina and Brandy in Season 11, eliminated 6th and 9th
  • Sabrina and Mel B in Season 5, eliminated 6th and 11th

Of course there are other early eliminations where there isn’t a corresponding person who goes a bit farther, but we’re in another season where there are two women who fall into a similar category. If you look at everyone else on the show, they all fall into their own niche…although it could be argued that Brant and Corbin are in a group together, but this doesn’t seem to occur with men and all the shocking eliminations that most people remember are female.

Now the question is – is Elizabeth another Chynna, or another Brandy or Mel B?? It all depends on how freaked the judges are by losing Christina and they’ve already massively overscored people.  I mean, look at the scores this week in the table below – they’ve gone mad. It was week 5 most people had a 26 or higher? Are they insane?? Or are they trying to send Leah home and failed to protect Christina well enough?? Read more..

October 19, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)