Honestly, the finale Dancing by the Numbers is kinda irrelevant, but there might be someone who wants to read it, so I do it.
As often happens, the judges cop out in the finale and give everyone the same score except for Alek – and really, 9s were fair for him. Do I think all the freestyles were equal?? Hardly. I would rank them 1) Bindi; 2) Alek; 3) Carlos; 4) Nick….but of course the scores don’t reflect that. And of course Nick got a perfect score for a jive that had some problems. :::sigh::: I should be used to this crap by now. The leaderboard?
Now by this point in the season, you all ought to know the story. But just in case you don’t…
What it comes down to is this: if Alek can’t cover the spread, it comes down to whoever gets the most votes – Bindi or Nick.
For Alek to win, he needs BOTH of the following things to happen:
- Alek gets 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than Nick, AND;
- Alek gets 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than Bindi.
He has to get BOTH things in order to win. Will he? It’s certainly possible. I would be bummed out by that, since I think Bindi is the better dancer, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
It’s a slightly easier road for both Bindi and Nick. To put it simply, for Nick to win, he needs BOTH of the following things to happen:
- Nick needs for Alek to NOT get the 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
- Nick needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Bindi.
Same thing, essentially, for Bindi to win. She needs both of the following:
- Bindi needs for Alek to NOT get the 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
- Bindi needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Nick.
It’s sorta that simple. Of course, they have the relay dance to practice tonight and then perform tomorrow. The question is, is there a point to it?? Or are the judges just going to score Alek lower and equalize Bindi and Nick whether they are equal or not (aka totally abdicating any real judging)?
If they give all of them the same score, the gutless wonders should just sit next season out. Let Len do it all. 😉 Then again, we shouldn’t be shocked – they’ve pulled this stunt many times over the years. Julianne being Derek’s sister just makes it worse. If they rank them, then I expect it will be Bindi, Nick Alek. Will that make a difference? Well, the skeptic in me says that the person who is going to win will be the high scorer in that dance, whether they deserve it or not. Why? Well, the judges like to be right AND/OR they won’t want to be accused of changing the outcome.
Of course, the other option is that one of them just blows away the competition to the point that the relay won’t change the outcome. We’ll have to save most of this discussion for Monday morning quarterbacking. That’s the way it is with a lot of the things that happen on DWTS – patterns and such are obvious once the season is over.
One of the things that happened last night that I don’t recall ever happening before is a change in the running order from one round to the next. So, what was the point to that? Why not just have Bindi go third in both rounds? Why the change? I’m not so sure it benefited Nick to follow Bindi, but going last in the finale has some advantages. It may not matter in weeks 6 through 10, but the finale has a lot of new viewers, typically. Then he was the last guy standing with Carlos – another benefit. It makes one wonder. That’s some mild pimpage there – nothing like the last few seasons, but still.
Okay, enough blather. What’s going to happen?
Well, any of the three could win. What do I think? My gut still says Bindi, but my gut is quivering. I’m just not sure. When WAS I sure? Well…with Kellie I was pretty sure. Donny Osmond? Sure. JR? Sure. Kristi? Sure. Hines, Donald, Meryl, Alfonso, Rumer? All sure…or pretty sure.
Here’s the problem. ALL of the conventional wisdom says that Nick should win. That Nick will win. And a large part of my brain still thinks he will win. But Bindi…I don’t know if there’s ever been a contestant like Bindi the Ray of Sunshine. And of course, Alek comes on the show right at a time of global upheaval. These three people make it a very difficult call because all three have a strength: Bindi is the best dancer and the heart of the show; Nick is the ringer, boybander with a huge fanbase; Alek speaks to our patriotism and a good bit of fear transformed to hope.
Which of the three is strongest? I’m still feeling Bindi. But I wouldn’t be shocked if either of the other two take it. I’d be bummed, but not shocked.