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DWTS Season 21, Week THE FINALE – Dancing by the Numbers

Honestly, the finale Dancing by the Numbers is kinda irrelevant, but there might be someone who wants to read it, so I do it.

As often happens, the judges cop out in the finale and give everyone the same score except for Alek – and really, 9s were fair for him. Do I think all the freestyles were equal?? Hardly.  I would rank them 1) Bindi; 2) Alek; 3) Carlos; 4) Nick….but of course the scores don’t reflect that. And of course Nick got a perfect score for a jive that had some problems. :::sigh::: I should be used to this crap by now. The leaderboard?

DWTS Week 11 Table 1

Now by this point in the season, you all ought to know the story. But just in case you don’t…

DWTS Week 11 Table 2

What it comes down to is this: if Alek can’t cover the spread, it comes down to whoever gets the most votes – Bindi or Nick.

For Alek to win, he needs BOTH of the following things to happen:

  • Alek gets 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than Nick, AND;
  • Alek gets 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than Bindi.

He has to get BOTH things in order to win. Will he? It’s certainly possible. I would be bummed out by that, since I think Bindi is the better dancer, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.

It’s a slightly easier road for both Bindi and Nick. To put it simply, for Nick to win, he needs BOTH of the following things to happen:

  • Nick needs for Alek to NOT get the 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than him, AND;
  • Nick needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Bindi.

Same thing, essentially, for Bindi to win. She needs both of the following:

  • Bindi needs for Alek to NOT get the 12,700 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Bindi needs to get ONE more vote per million votes cast than Nick.

It’s sorta that simple. Of course, they have the relay dance to practice tonight and then perform tomorrow. The question is, is there a point to it?? Or are the judges just going to score Alek lower and equalize Bindi and Nick whether they are equal or not (aka totally abdicating any real judging)?

If they give all of them the same score, the gutless wonders should just sit next season out. Let Len do it all. 😉 Then again, we shouldn’t be shocked – they’ve pulled this stunt many times over the years. Julianne being Derek’s sister just makes it worse. If they rank them, then I expect it will be Bindi, Nick Alek. Will that make a difference? Well, the skeptic in me says that the person who is going to win will be the high scorer in that dance, whether they deserve it or not. Why? Well, the judges like to be right AND/OR they won’t want to be accused of changing the outcome.

Of course, the other option is that one of them just blows away the competition to the point that the relay won’t change the outcome. We’ll have to save most of this discussion for Monday morning quarterbacking. That’s the way it is with a lot of the things that happen on DWTS – patterns and such are obvious once the season is over.

One of the things that happened last night that I don’t recall ever happening before is a change in the running order from one round to the next. So, what was the point to that? Why not just have Bindi go third in both rounds? Why the change? I’m not so sure it benefited Nick to follow Bindi, but going last in the finale has some advantages. It may not matter in weeks 6 through 10, but the finale has a lot of new viewers, typically.  Then he was the last guy standing with Carlos – another benefit.  It makes one wonder.  That’s some mild pimpage there – nothing like the last few seasons, but still.

Okay, enough blather. What’s going to happen?

Well, any of the three could win.  What do I think? My gut still says Bindi, but my gut is quivering. :-) I’m just not sure. When WAS I sure? Well…with Kellie I was pretty sure. Donny Osmond? Sure. JR? Sure. Kristi? Sure.  Hines, Donald, Meryl, Alfonso, Rumer? All sure…or pretty sure.

Here’s the problem. ALL of the conventional wisdom says that Nick should win. That Nick will win. And a large part of my brain still thinks he will win. But Bindi…I don’t know if there’s ever been a contestant like Bindi the Ray of Sunshine. And of course, Alek comes on the show right at a time of global upheaval. These three people make it a very difficult call because all three have a strength: Bindi is the best dancer and the heart of the show; Nick is the ringer, boybander with a huge fanbase; Alek speaks to our patriotism and a good bit of fear transformed to hope.

Which of the three is strongest? I’m still feeling Bindi. But I wouldn’t be shocked if either of the other two take it. I’d be bummed, but not shocked.

November 24, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week TEN – Dancing by the Numbers

I wrote this week’s numbers post two different ways because we’re not sure how they’re counting votes and scores.  I was thinking they would use both the 9th and the 16th scores and votes, since there wasn’t a true elimination. But then it was suggested that since Tamar was “eliminated” and that they revealed a supposed low combined scoring person, that they would simply use the votes and scores from this past Monday (the 16th). Plus, when you look at the scores from 9th, it’s very likely was Tamar that would have been eliminated naturally, if she hadn’t withdrawn. She only had one point on Alek, after all.  But who knows? I’ll just write it both ways. It’s instructive to see what huge numbers of points does to the margins.

ETA: And Option number 1 it is! Per Orlando Sentinel and Just Jared as a back up:

One couple will be ejected as Monday’s show ends. ABC said that couple will have “the lowest combined viewer and judge votes from the previous two weeks.”

The first option is they use the points and scores from both weeks. And, as you can see, that’s a whole lotta points.

DWTS Week 10 table 1

Alek is the low man on the totem pole doing it this way, with Bindi way out in front and Nick in third place. Kinda crazy. Kinda suspicious. Are we going to hear that Carlos is going to go on tour shortly?? I don’t get the appeal. Read more..

November 19, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week Nine – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, I figured you all would want to know who I think might get eliminated on Monday even if we don’t think someone is actually getting eliminated on Monday. We don’t really know for sure if it’s happening or not, but I’m leaning toward not.  I think what they’re going to do is take the points from this past Monday and the points from this coming Monday, combine it with all the votes from those two nights, and eliminate someone on the 23rd – finale night one. But I’m just guessing. :-)

You’ve already read my rant on the disgrace that was DWTS Week 9, so I will just jump straight into the scores from this past Monday and the percentages. Read more..

November 13, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week EIGHT – Dancing by the Numbers

What a week. I don’t even know where to start with how disappointed I am in the blatant shenanigans of the judges and the producers. I’m quite disgusted. It does lead me to wonder just how scripted the judges were…and clearly, how worried they are about how they are perceived by the squeaky wheels on social media (looking at you Jules).

Anyway, it’s over and done with and despite their best attempts at…whatever…I doubt they were totally successful. Bindi’s fans are rallied, Alek’s likely are as well, Nick’s are…Nick’s.  They’re likely rallied to defend their guy for his part in the “baby shower” (tm Cidra) that was Monday night. That leaves Carlos, Tamar and Alexa pretty much forgotten in the middle. I mean really, I doubt that was their intent, but at the end of the day you have three fired up fanbases who likely didn’t need firing up – and probably not what you intended at all.

As always, I could be wrong, but it seems to me that if you were looking to shake up the leader board and give Nick a boost, you SHOULDN’T tell Bindi she’s in a league of her own, that you can’t give her “10s every week” and that you’re “searching really hard for a flaw” before giving her a nine and Nick enough points to get within striking distance of her cumulative score (which WILL become important later in the season, I’m sure). First, the fans aren’t STUPID – they see why you’re “searching” and the reasons aren’t good. Second, saying all those things makes it look like some sort of conspiracy (like, why do you HAVE to look harder at her than you do at anyone else?). Third…can’t think of a third. Anyway, why not just say her shoulders looked like a problem to you and give her a 9?? Talking too much gets these judges in trouble. Read more..

November 5, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week SEVEN – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, sh*t’s about to get REAL. And figuring out who’s going home this week is not easy, between the close scores and the stoopid immunity stuff.

Speaking of immunity, watch out for Bindi and Nick. If one of them gets a 28 or 29 and they dance early in the show, someone else is most likely getting immunity. It’ll likely be REAL fishy and I’d almost put money on it happening – I’m thinking either Tamar or Alexa.   I also expect the producers to try real hard to get Carlos vs. Alexa and Derek vs. Val. Yes, I used the pro names for a REASON. Derek don’t play, but Val makes it very easy for them.

I *think* from the press release the immunity is for Week 9, but it’s so poorly written that I can’t be sure.  Of course, the natural question is – what if the person winning immunity is the person who has already been determined to have the lowest combined score and who should be going home Monday night?  Well, that’s a question I don’t know the answer to and I’m afraid it will only piss me off. :-)  After Monday is over, if that is a possibility, I’ll do a follow up to this post.  Read more..

October 30, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week SIX – Dancing by the Numbers

This week we have a pretty clear division between two groups of dancers and I’m not really sure why. It’s weird. I re-watch the dances and I agree that those three (Alexa, Alek and Hayes) had the weakest dances of the night, but I’m not convinced that the difference between some at the top and those at the bottom is that broad.  I don’t think any of the dances were “perfect” although I think Nick and Bindi were perfect *all things considered*.  Tamar, on re-watching, was not a perfect 40 either. Meanwhile, I think that Alexa and Alek should be tied with Hayes.  Of course, not giving Tamar a 40 and NOT giving Alexa and Alek 7s would have put them in much better striking distance at Tamar. Makes you wonder.

Then again – why give Andy a 40? He definitely deserved a high score…but that high? I loved that routine, for sure…but after giving him such a hard time in previous weeks, this just seems like a turnaround. I dunno, I’m kinda confused.  Anyway, here’s the leaderboard and the percentages.

Week 6 table 1

I’m not a Nick fan by any stretch, but I don’t get why Andy gets a 10 from CAI and Nick doesn’t – that’s weird, unless they’re setting up a redemption arch for Nick to help him to the MBT. But one point doesn’t really make a redemption arch, does it. Read more..

October 21, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week FIVE – Dancing by the Numbers

I saw some concern this week on the blog about Alek and I want to reiterate right away – I’m not worried about Alek. At all. If he were to go home this week it would be the most shocked I’ve ever been in the history of doing the numbers for this show. Don’t know if that helps anyone or not, but there you have it. He may not be the best dancer, but he has a ton of stuff going for him. These things should be obvious, but let me spell it out for you:

  • He’s a hero in the military in the mold of JR and Noah – who finished 1st and 3rd, respectively.
  • He’s had a run of crap luck (UCC and Spencer) and people love to support someone like that, who has held up well in spite of said crap.
  • The SHOWMANCE. Come on. You watched Meryl and Maks, right? You don’t think it was just dancing that got them the title do you? It was the fauxmance. Alek has it even better because this showmance is a realmance. :-) They ain’t playing, like Meryl and Maks clearly were.

I could probably think of more stuff, but that more than sums it up, doesn’t it?  Read more..

October 15, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week FOUR – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, another interesting week on DWTS. Really, I don’t have too many complaints beside CAI’s shocking blindness to the lifts that were happening. She really does seem to only see them when Derek does them, and not when other pros let them happen.  But, this shouldn’t surprise me – I was talking tonight over margaritas about what the producers might do to prevent Bindi winning. My friends think Bindi is a sure thing – but they aren’t online and don’t really pay close attention to the show. I think Bindi has to overcome the “everyone gets a trophy” cabal, and that’s no small thing.

I do think it’s going to come down to Bindi, Alek and Nick. I think Hayes and Tamar are going to fight for fourth place and I gotta say – I’m leaning toward Hayes right now. My friends who aren’t online are extremely impressed with him and not at all impressed with Nick. They also love Alek. It’s very interesting to talk to those who aren’t online (and therefore aren’t contaminated by the BS). They may actually be a bit better at calling the show than I am – but they also show me that the general audience is VERY susceptible to the producer’s subtle manipulations. Actually, after talking to them, I wonder if Nick might get edged out of the Top 3 by either Hayes or Tamar.

Well, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Nick IS a Backstreet Boy, after all.  :-) Read more..

October 11, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week THREE – Dancing by the Numbers

Maybe one of these days I’ll get my numbers done some time during the week. :-)  Is anyone even HERE on a Saturday besides me? It’s cold and wet outside, and I’ve been away for weeks, so I’m enjoying myself. ETA: Being away made me miss that supposedly this weeks elimination will be the result of Week 2/Night 2 scores and votes combined with Week 3 scores and votes. The result of me adding in Week 2/Night 2 are rather interesting. Scroll to the bottom if you’ve already read the first installment.

I was working on the assumption that Gary would be the next to go, despite how entertaining he is, because he’s not a great dancer and he’s crazy and he’s been “in jeopardy” a couple times. As a refresher, remember that sometimes being in jeopardy is a warning sign and sometimes it’s meaningless…and sometimes they want the person in jeopardy to get some votes (see: Andy).  We don’t usually know until the end of the season how they’re using it.  Anyway, I was working on the assumption that it was Gary, but then I looked at the scores. Now I’m not so sure. At all. Read more..

October 3, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 21, Week 2 Night TWO – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, one of the problems of watching the show while on Vacation is that I don’t have good recall of the show this past week, nor do I have a way (at the moment) to rewatch it. I probably could pull it up on “On Demand” but, well, I’m somewhat lacking in time. I will be able to watch and live blog tomorrow which will make the next numbers post easier.  :-)

My impressions that I do remember is that neither Alexa nor Carlos is really doing it for me at the moment. I don’t have a good reason why nor any idea why this is the case. It just is. It could change for sure. I hope it does. I would like to see Mark win again.

Another impression was that Tamar actually had a good dance that I liked. We’ll see if Val can keep it up. I don’t have the high hopes for him that I once did, nor do I find him particularly inspired when it comes to choreo – but he does (yet again) have a good dancer. And one that I might actually end up *liking*. Read more..

September 27, 2015 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)