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DWTS Season 19, Week 9: Dancing by the Numbers!

Okay, we’re finally to the point of the competition where things could get interesting. But probably not. Yet. :-) Why? Well, we find out once and for all if Tommy’s fanbase is all that.

I’m not going to talk much about the scoring this past week – I think I’ve made my feelings abundantly clear. Whole lotta work going on to make sure that Tommy doesn’t go to the finals – and that Janel DOES go to the finals. Could say the same for Sadie, I guess, since she clearly forgot the choreo and if we complain about mistakes being overlooked for one contestant, I guess we have to do the same for the other. Thing is, I can’t get too worked up about Sadie because she forgot – you wouldn’t have known if you were watching just her and not Emma. It wasn’t a flub as much as an ad lib, if that makes any sense. I can actually believe, in her case, that the judges didn’t see it. They clearly did see in Janel’s case – and didn’t care.

Anyway, still peeved but moving on. Really tough row to hoe this week for Tommy. I’ll be very curious to see if he makes it or not. Let’s take a look at the scores.

Week 9 Table 1

Miniscule points between the top four – huge points between first and last place. And I really can’t argue with it too much. Love Tommy and Peta very much – but he’s not the dancer that the others are and he knows it.

But what does he have to do to stay?

Week 9 Table 2

It will take a minute, here, to explain why if Tommy is killing it in votes it will be Janel who suffers. I think. :-) The next lowest person is Sadie, but…

Week 9 Table 3

As you can see, Sadie only needs 2,400 more votes per million votes cast to beat Bethany. I have no idea if she’s managing that or not. I think she’s getting a ton of votes, but it all depends on if Bethany’s Motavators are all voting. If they are…well, still hard to say.  But it doesn’t matter. Why? Because I would wager that both girls are beating Janel handily. There’s tiny margins once you get higher than Tommy on the leaderboard. Here’s Bethany’s chart:

Week 9 Table 4

Now, Sadie only needs 9,400 votes per million votes cast to beat Janel or Alfonso. Don’t know if she’s managing it with Alfonso, but I would bet she is beating Janel. That’s why it doesn’t matter if she’s beating Bethany at this point – she’s beating Janel (I believe) and I think that Bethany is also beating Janel, since she only needs roughly 7,010 more votes per million votes cast.

Alfonso only needs ONE more vote per million votes cast to beat Janel and do I think he’s getting that? Of course.

So, what I think that all means is that Sadie is beating Janel, Bethany is beating Janel and Alfonso is beating Janel – which means it could well come down to Janel and Tommy as the bottom two.

So, who will go home? Well, I think Tommy will because as much as I think he is raking in votes, he would have to get nearly 47k more votes per million votes cast to beat Janel. That’s a lot of votes.

Before anyone asks, yes it has been done before. Kurt Warner got about that many (49k?) to send Audrina Patridge (who was at or near the top of the leaderboard) home in week 6 of Season 11.  There have been a few instances of contestants overcoming big numbers of votes to stick around.  As I said at the time, it was not just that they were getting lots of votes, but that the person eliminated was getting few. Audrina (as Courtney and I predicted a couple week before she was eliminated) was one of those and for a long while, I believed Janel was one of those. Is she still? Well, usually this level of pimpage doesn’t work. But sometimes a gullible audience just now turning into the season buys it. But it’s always possible that they like the other contestants better. I will say that this is the first season in a while that I wasn’t SURE who would win. But I am pretty sure it will be neither Tommy nor Janel. Beyond that, the finish order is a toss up. Eveything will hinge on the scores.

So, I’m pretty sure that the wacky scoring this week did the trick and Tommy will sail off into the night. He’s had a great run and he’s given me a new appreciation for Peta. If it’s anyone other than him or Janel I will be mildly surprised, but not shocked. Three young girls with correspondingly young fanbases and you just never know what those kids are doing. :-)

 

November 13, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 8: Dancing by the Numbers!

So…

Where to start?

Yes, I do think that the scores were determined in advance by the judges because they wanted to keep Janel safe for another two weeks. Did they know it was necessary? Does it matter? I’m not sure the judges know, but at the end of the day, they underscored Sadie, in particular, relative to Janel. Janel’s dance was good, but if it was a dance worthy of a perfect score, so was Sadie’s and Alfonso’s – and Bethany’s for that matter.  But perhaps those three don’t need the help, eh?

By giving Janel 43 points last week, they’ve essentially sent her all the way to the semi-finals based on one less than perfect dance. Saved her for last week AND this coming week. This way, it is likely they get their preferred finale of Alfonso, Sadie, Bethany and Janel – sucks to be Lea and Tommy, barring someone not getting the votes we think they are. The semi-final scoring will tell the tale. If Janel suddenly isn’t all that great, it means she ain’t getting the vote (like we suspect) – after all, the judges want to be RIGHT. They want their preferred finale, but in the end they want their scores to be close to how the votes are going. Pride.

Anyway, I can’t even work up any righteous indignation about this anymore. It’s so predictable. Young actress works for ABC = Semi-final, whether she deserves it or not. And really, she is dancing better than Lea right now – I just don’t *LIKE* her. Not only do I get stealth mean girl vibe, but that gross showmance she had going on with Val was just annoying after a season centered on an over the top showmance.  Yuck.

But, on to the scores. Who’s got what and how much damage did the judges do this past week? Read more..

November 8, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 7: Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, it’s really interesting how the team dances make an already screwed up leader board even MORE screwed up. In what universe is Sadie below both Lea and Janel?? Cray cray universe, that’s which one. I can’t figure out what they have against that girl – and why they are so high on Lea. They have Lea as 4 points higher than Sadie in her individual dance – it’s’ times like this when I think that perhaps giving your celeb very simple choreo is an advantage. I’m not sure it should be. Mark went with a production and harder choreo and wasn’t rewarded at all for challenging Sadie AND teaching her to dance. Was she a little wobbly in spots? Sure – but she also had harder choreo.

I dunno. Don’t get me wrong – I love Lea too, but these oddities make me scratch my head.  Because in the past, one of the requirements from the judges certainly seemed to be upping the challenge each week, if they were a good dancer. But, as usual, the rule that applies to some pros/celebs doesn’t apply to all.  I was ready to be super pissed at Len, for example, when he started talking about production to Derek on a HALLOWEEN themed episode – but instead of giving Derek his usual 7, he gave him a 9. Shocker. But then we found out that Len was saving his true ire for Mark and Sadie. Granted, they had MORE production and the dance wasn’t quite as strong – but NINE points difference?? Lord have mercy, whose cheerios did Mark pee in? (Note to Mark fans: you should focus your silly hate on the people actually handing out scores…and here’s an idea, instead of trying to pull Beth’s score DOWN, you should be bitching to get Sadie’s score UP. Always, the focus on Derek when he had nothing to do with it. Stupid.).

As we have often speculated in the past, the one reason to low ball someone is for the storyline. Often a storyline that includes the lowballed celeb getting a shit ton of votes. This way, when they are safe…or even end up WINNING…everyone will be shocked. The audience will look at each other in wonder and say, “but she got low scores all the way up to week __ – that’s amazing she won!!” Because, folks, not everyone is really paying attention and some of the audience ain’t actually too bright (see: shippers).  Where this becomes a problem is the other side of the stupid audience coin – sometimes constant lowballing leads the sheeple…I mean, audience to believe that that person is not as good a dancer as they actually are. There are people out there who actually believe the judges know what they’re talking about (gasp), when in reality, there is more that goes into their scores than actual dancing a lot of the time. Read more..

October 30, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 6: Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, this week is interesting. And hard. Why? Well, Michael got a 30. That makes several things uncertain. Is he the weakest dancer left? That’s debatable. Honestly, I don’t think either Tommy or Antonio is that much better than him, although Tommy is equally charming in my book.  This puts Antonio at a disadvantage – it all hinges on his fanbase.

But then…some of you remember my analysis of “Jeopardy” I’m sure. Basically, if I remember correctly, about half the time, Jeopardy is actually an indication of who will be going home soon, but ONLY for the person last to be called safe. Usually two weeks after being put in jeopardy and being last to be called safe. This is NOT as true if you are in the semi-final.  Anyway, Antonio hasn’t even been in jeopardy, has he? And he’s definitely never been last to be called safe. The other thing that was obvious from that analysis was that it’s hard to tell what their pattern is until the season is over.  But, Jonathan was last to be called safe two weeks before he left.  Betsey was in the bottom two and was eliminated in week 4. Michael has been last to be called safe a few times now.  And Janel was last to be called safe this past week. Maybe it means something, maybe it doesn’t. More likely it does for Michael in the near term.

Anyway, let’s take a look at the scores and the percentages. Read more..

October 24, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Wow. What a night. And not really in a good way. While I certainly think that Julianne is ten times the judge that Carrie Ann is, all of them needed a good smack the other night for being so ungodly rude. No, I do not disagree with some of the scores they were handing out (although Sadie and Alfonso got hosed in a big way), but the timing and the comments. You wanna use those paddles, how about NOT throwing out 6’s, 7’s and 8’s to those same people for the first four weeks.  You say “Oh, it’s now week 5, we have to get tough. NO! THIS IS STUPID THINKING!  No matter how often you say that’s what you’re doing, it just comes off as dumb – and as if you’ve had the realization if you don’t start scoring some of those guys low, they’re going to stick around for a while. :::rolls eyes:::

I will say that one time that I loved was when CAI asked Val what his dance was supposed to mean – thanks for asking what all of America was probably trying to figure out. Val, you have potential but you have a long way to go before you hit Derek’s level. A long way. And you’ll never get there as long as they keep giving you partners with dance experience. You need a Joanna…and more clarity of vision. And pills that help you resist the showmance bug.

What else did I like? Well, not very much. Alfonso and Sadie were fantastic. Bethany was very good. And that was pretty much it. Problem is that I heard some of what went on behind the scenes and it just makes me feel bad. This is my happy, shiny dance show and they’re determined to screw it up. And no, it’s not Julianne’s presence or Len’s absence – that’s too simple minded. Read more..

October 16, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers!

So, everyone was surprised to see Randy go – as was I. But in looking back to last weeks “Dancing by the Numbers” post, we probably shouldn’t have been. We’re dealing with SMALL numbers here, and Tavis and Randy were both in a four-way tie, only 11k votes per million votes cast above Michael.  What does that mean? Well, it means that for Betsey and Tommy to be safe, they only needed ONE more vote than Randy and Tavis. ONE.  It also means that Michael got 11k more vote per million votes cast than both Tavis and Randy (at least). Really, is that SO surprising? Watching Betsey and Tommy last night, I’m not surprised either of the survived. Michael over Tavis – yes, we called that. Michael over Randy?? Ummm…that’s a bit more surprising. But the DWTS audience has shown time and again that they love guys like Michael.  Problem is, they also love the Betsey’s and the Tommy’s – as do I.

That means one of two things. First is that Michael’s time has very possibly run out. The second is that if Michael’s time hasn’t run out, watch out Antonio.  But I get ahead of myself – I haven’t even looked at the numbers yet – that’s just my sense of things in Week 3, going into week four (ALREADY!!).

Anyway, let’s take a look at last night’s scores and percentages:

Table 1

Since Randy had a score awarded to him, I’ve included that in my total. Do they do it that way? Well, they say total judges points awarded, but who knows. At this stage it makes little difference in the votes needed. Read more..

October 1, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I was cranky (apparently) when watching the show last night, cuz I wasn’t terribly impressed by anyone – except Bethany and Sadie, CAI’s least favorite girls.  Well, I should say I *loved* Alfonso’s dance as well, but I could see what the judges were talking about.  Totally don’t understand why Sadie got totally hosed. I’m thinking I’ll have to rewatch it. I think she danced better – more personality, less mugging – than Janel, and Janel is the one with training. Even though we should be calling her JanelNotADancer because it’s not getting mentioned on the show.  I did see Len on All Access right after the show and he seemed to be regretting some of his marks. He only mentioned overmarking Jonathan, but he wanted to say more. Maybe about Sadie since she had so recently danced??

Anyway, let’s take a look at the Scores and percentages:

Wk 2 Table 1

Well, I don’t know who I would put in first place, but I’m not sure it’s Lea. I love Lea, she’s a beautiful dancer and woman – but when I can see posture problems and wonder why the judges are raving, you know you got problems. Anyway, she was in jeopardy last week so she may not be getting the votes. But I do think there is enough of a cushion for her to be safe to dance another day. I also think there is little chance of Alfonso, Sadie or Bethany going anywhere – not yet anyway. Janel is likely fine as well, although I’m afraid her time will come.

That brings us to the lower half of the leaderboard. Well, lower two-thirds? Antonio I think is likely fine, for now, but only because there is much bigger cannon fodder than him. I also can’t be the only one who finds Randy hot. :-) The low man on the totem pole, score wise, is Michael. While I agree with what many have been saying, about him not having quite the charm combined with more limited dance skill, part of me thinks that his onesie giving him a wedgie may have bought him two weeks, not just one. I could certainly be wrong, but I’m leaning toward Tavis. But let’s look and see what it will take for Michael to be safe:

Wk 2 Table 2

See, this is where it gets tough. Michael may be more likeable than Tavis, but that four points translates to 11k votes per million votes cast. That is tough. But he has four different people to choose from when it comes to beating them. Problem is that a couple of them are really likable as well. I adore Tommy and I can’t believe he would be going anywhere. I also thought Betsey was great last night – but she’s a tad on the weird and wild side. Tavis just talks too damn much and I find him ponderous and a bit annoying. I doubt I’m alone.

So, for Michael to be safe, he needs ONE of the following:
– 11k more votes per million votes cast than either Tavis, Tommy, Betsey or Randy, OR;
– He needs about 16.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan…

…and so on, as shown in Table 2.

Personally, I think he’s only within striking distance of the 11k votes of the people directly above him. But I’ve been wrong before. :-) Let’s say that Michael is getting the votes – what do Tavis, Randy, Betsey and Tommy need to be safe??

Wk 2 Table 3

Well, not very much at all. Each only needs ONE vote per million votes cast than the others in their little group, and all of them only need 5,525 more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan. Hell, Sadie and Antonio are in easy striking distance as well…if not for the fact of Tavis and Michael being down below them, I’d be worried for them. Bethany too. But, I don’t see anyone other than Randy, Betsey and Tommy MAYBE making the leap over Jonathan. See, the one drawback to hosing a pro (Allison – deserved or not) is that it generates sympathy votes.

Anyway, I think that Michael can only beat Tavis. I think that Tavis might beat Betsey, but I dunno. I don’t think he’s beating either Tommy or Randy, and I don’t think he’s catching Jonathan, Sadie or Antonio. I think the real bottom two is likely Michael and Tavis, but don’t be surprised to see Jonathan in jeopardy whether he’s really near the bottom or not. After Allison’s scolding and her speaking up in the Skybox, combined with the shock value of Betsey being safe again, I kinda look for the last three left standing to be Michael, Tavis and Jonathan.

There’s kind of a lot of weak dancers with great personalities, so I could be way off base here. At the end of the night, I think Tavis goes home. If it’s not him, then Michael. If there’s a shocker…Randy because he went so early in the night.

September 23, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 19, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers!

Well, I have to say that I’m really pleased with the dancing we saw last night. The show as a whole was rather sloppy, but that’s somewhat typical for the first show of the season when it’s jam packed with people.  Anyway, I just loved it. Of course, Derek is my favorite, but I can’t really pick another favorite. Love Jonathan, Sadie, Tommy, Alfonso, Randy, Lea….and of course, Bethany.

For those of you new to this blog, this is the post where I figure out how many votes the various couples need in order to stick around.  The math is fairly simple: you add up the total number of points handed out over the night, divide that total into each couple’s individual score for their percentage of the judges scores. The viewer votes are handed the same way – the total number of votes is divided into a couples votes for a percentage. The two percentages are then added together and the couple with the lowest combined total goes home.

Let’s take a look at the scores and the percentages:

Table 1

Now, as much as I love Sadie, I don’t think she is only 2 points back from Alfonso and 2 points ahead of Bethany and Lea. And she’s certainly not that far ahead of Randy. Nope. But she probably has the weakest fanbase on the show of those who can actually dance, so they might be protecting her a tiny bit. Although I don’t think that’s necessary.

Why? Well, while we have some absurdly high scores for week 1, we also have some really low scores for week 1. And sadly, most were deserved. Personally, I enjoyed Betsey WAY more than Lolo – and I would bet the average viewer agrees with me.  But Betsey is at the bottom.  Here’s what she needs to do to stick around:

Table 2

She only needs, roughly, 5,400 votes per million votes cast in order to stay over Lolo. Call me crazy, but I think she gets those votes. And Lolo kinda did it to herself with the constant talking. I could certainly be wrong, but she took a dance that was hard to watch and turned it into a whole segment that was hard to watch. Thank god for Tom Bergeron. Yikes.  Anyway, I think Betsey gets past Lolo. Good thing, too, because I don’t think she’s going to make it past either Michael or Antonio – Antonio, while somewhat wooden, certainly has his fans. Michael is just adorable and I want him to stay forever. But I feel that way about half the cast right now.

For the sake of argument, let’s say that Betsey is totally safe. What does Lolo have to get in order to also be safe? She needs the following:

Table 3

She needs roughly 8,100 votes per million votes cast in order to beat either Michael or Antonio and honestly, I would be shocked if she got it. I feel very bad for Keo – I don’t want him to go. She needs 13,450 to get past Tommy and I don’t see that happening either.

So, without belaboring the point, I think Lolo goes home. If it’s not Lolo, it will be Betsey – it’s possible that where I saw charming, many saw trainwreck. If there’s a shocker I will do a post results explanation of what I think happened.

One final point, with all the characters in this cast, there are a couple people who need to watch out. Janel is the big one, IMO. All the hype she and Val have been putting out there and I don’t think she lived up to it. Make no mistake – she’s a decent dancer. But she got off easy – they tagged Lea as the ringer when Janel has more recent experience and got off scott free. This pisses me off…but by the end of the show I had forgotten about her. This leads to dangerous, shocking elim territory in coming weeks. Unfortunately, there are a lot of good dancers that could fall in to this trap – Lea, maybe Sadie and possibly Bethany (although with Derek as a partner, she will stand out whether she wants to or not). I love all three of them, but they are going up against Tommy, Randy, Alfonso, Jonathan and Michael?? These guys are not necessarily better dancers but they command the screen. Even if they are not the best dancers, you grow to LOVE them. So watch out, girls – this is a tough season.

September 16, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, The Finale – Dancing by the Numbers!

Sorry…I just thought the above picture was gorgeous.

Note: As of 1 pm Eastern time, James was KILLING it in the encore votes with nearly double the tweets of Meryl. Amy was in third with Candace in last place. I suspect that, in the interest of keeping this the “Meryl and Maks show” that James won’t be the one redoing his freestyle. @DWTSGossip also says that it’s open to the “remaining couples” – when the “remaining” is counted, I don’t know. I do know that I would rather see James over Meryl, but I won’t hold my breath. :-)

Well, I called it after Candace’s freestyle – massive underscore because she was going through to Tuesday and they have to make sure she doesn’t actually win. And when you see the math you will see they gave it the ole college try.

Of course there is another dance tomorrow night. It can go one of two ways between Meryl and Amy. They will give them both either 27’s or 30’s and let the audience decide. They might even put Amy a point ahead to tie the score.  I expect they might even put Candace up there too, because they’ve created such a margin already it may not matter. If they are really afraid Meryl might not win, I would expect them to underscore Amy relative to Meryl UNLESS Amy just kills it and they can’t underscore without being obvious. Kinda like Len did tonight. :::rolls eyes:::

Anyway, here’s where we stand after two dances.

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 1

Totally not surprised that they pretty much ranked them, and really Meryl and Maks fans shouldn’t get too comfortable – Zendaya was ahead by a point too.  ;-)

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 2

As you can see from the table above, going into voting Candace needs a TON of votes just to get past Amy. This bums me out because if Amy isn’t going to win, I don’t want her standing there when Maks and his family create some outrageous display leaving Meryl in the dust. Of course, now that I think about it, I really don’t want Candace and Mark standing there either, with her kids watching. Prove me wrong, Fam – show some class.

Right now, for Candace to WIN, she needs both of the following:

  • Candace needs 47,100 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, AND;
  • Candace needs 53,000 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

This is not unheard of, although that’s close to the record.  Bigger margins have been beaten…just never in the finale. It’s unlikely to happen now.

As for Amy, what does she need to do to win?  Both of the following:

  • Amy needs for Candace to NOT get the 47,100 more votes per million votes cast than her, AND;
  • Amy needs 5,900 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

As I said earlier, this is totally doable. Will it happen? I’m thinking probably not, mainly due to the tongue baths Meryl has gotten all season, in addition to a pretty massive fanbase, especially compared to Amy. Meryl is a gold medal winning ICE DANCER fresh off the most recent Olympics. Amy is a snowboarder and they barely show her version of the Olympics on TV. Then there is the whole showmance angle – believe it or not some people actually fall for that crap. Later this summer when Maks is photographed with JLo all over the place there are going to be a whole lot of disillusioned fangirls crying in their Diet Pepsi and cursing Maks.

Now, what happens when they add another set of points tomorrow? Well, odds are, nothing changes too much. I’m going to take a stab at it – but I swear the judges read this blog (just like Conrad does) and do the opposite of what I guess.   I would bet, since they took great pains to underscore Candace that that trend will continue. Here’s my first scenario:

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 3

And scores like those above lead to the following:

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 4

As you can see, the margins decreased only slightly. Candace still has a lot of ground to make up. Amy has a bit less. But if they REALLY want Meryl to win and are afraid of Amy, they could rank them more significantly tomorrow. If Amy has even the tiniest mistake and Meryl doesn’t, we could see something like this:

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 5

Which would lead to the following:

DWTS 18 Week 10 Table 6

This scenario puts Meryl way out in front and, considering that when I was voting I kept getting a Meryl and Maks video, I don’t find it to be too unlikely. It’s kinda ridiculous. I don’t think the producers care who wins, as much as they have preferences as to who will make the finale for a variety of reasons. The judges on the other hand, may have an interest in the “best dancer” winning. BUT at the same time, they don’t want to be seen as assholes or as people who are tilting it one way or the other at this stage of the game. IF Amy and Meryl perform comparable dances like they did last night, I expect scenario one to be pretty likely. Like I said, they may even give Candace a 27. Most seasons, as I recall (and I really have to research it) they hesitate to take the decision out of the voter’s hands completely. I think that trend will continue.

At the end of the day, I expect that Maks will finally get his desperately desired and coveted MBT, but casual viewers years from now will remember when Derek Hough took that Amy Purdy gurl to the finale and she danced beautifully despite some disability which they can’t quite remember – because she was just that good.  And Candace’s kids will remember when their mom made the finale of Dancing with the Stars and how she was tough as nails and danced under extreme pressure. Derek gets nominated for another Emmy and Mark has great success at his music. Everybody wins.

May 20, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 18, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers!

I think the writing is on the wall for Candace, this week, I’m afraid. I’ll be very surprised to see her make it to night two. Not that it matters. She made it to the finale with Meryl, Amy and James and she should be VERY proud of that fact. I’m willing to bet that Mark gives her an amazing freestyle and I’m looking forward to seeing it. I’m looking forward to seeing all of them, actually.

In case you’re wondering, my last DBTN post will be on Tuesday morning and will show what the various players have to do to WIN – even though I think the odds are pretty firmly behind Meryl at this point. It all depends on if Maks manages a great Freestyle compared to the others. If they all suck, then he’s fine, but if Mark, Derek and Peta put on amazing freestyles and he doesn’t?? It might change the game. It might not, but it could.  And before you start squawking about facebook…that seems to work for who gets eliminated, but I wouldn’t be so sure that it works for who WINS. You have to think about how Facebook likes actually work. You also have to consider the fan groups involved. Do you think that the Meryl and Maks fans are doing everything they can to make sure ALL of them go to facebook and “like” those photos, now that it seems to show something?? I sure do. Do all fan groups do that? Beyond one tweet, probably not. Now that people know it appears to work, they will work harder to “like” – yes, it is extremely counterintuitive, but does that surprise you? You also have to consider that some people probably “like” more than one person or dance – so while the lack of likes may show who’s leaving, an excess of likes may not indicate a WIN.  Then there is a duration issue. How long do they wait between posting photos?? Is one couples photos going up first?  Just some things to consider.  I may analyze it more once the season is over – more from an intuitive angle than an actual math angle.

Anyway. This week I just left out the part of the post that includes Charlie’s numbers and went straight to the four remaining dancers. Sue me, I’m tired and I want to do something else. Here’s how it stacks up after two dances:

Week 9 Table 1

That order right there is how I think it will end up, on Tuesday, although it’s heavily dependent on the scores. Anyway, Meryl’s only got a 2 point lead on Amy and a 4 point lead on Candace. Not many points, but at this stage of the game it does equate to a good number of votes.

Week 9 Table 2

For Candace to make it to Tuesday night, she needs one of three things to happen:

  • Candace needs about 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than James, OR;
  • Candace needs about 19,700 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, OR;
  • Candace needs about 26,200 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

I really don’t see any of that happening. It’s too stacked against her.  Both she and James have been the last one standing a couple times, so I think if Candace can pass anyone, it will be James. If she were to do that James would need to get past either Amy or Meryl which involves:

  • James would have to get 6,600 more votes per million votes cast than Amy, OR;
  • James would need 13,100 more votes per million votes cast than Meryl.

If anything is going to work, he would get past Amy. He is the big heart throb after all. The only question is if the girls are seriously voting. He could be getting past Amy, but that only matters if Candace is getting past him. We won’t know until Monday night.

So, I think that Meryl is the only one safe for sure. The other three are in jeopardy. I predict that Candace is the one to be eliminated on Monday.  If Candace is beating James, I think Amy could go home because James doesn’t have to do much to get past her. Remember…heart throb. :-)

Here’s another prediction for you – I predict that if James makes it into the finale, they call him safe FIRST. Just to mess with ya’lls heads. Well, Meryl and Maks fans heads. We’ll see. And if they call Candace safe first? Amy fans should be worried.

May 16, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)