DWTS Season 21, Week 2 Night ONE – Dancing by the Numbers

Yep, still on Vacay, but I do manage to find a spare hour here and there to jot down a few notes and numbers.

Not really surprised to see Chaka go last night. I think I said quite some time ago that either Chaka or Kim would be the first out. Thought it would be Kim, since her dance was so bad…but Chaka had Keo and that guy can’t seem to get it together. Ah well. Both Chaka and Kim improved a lot last night, but I don’t know if it will be enough to save Kim. Here’s how the leader board stacked up.

Week 2 Table 1

Bindi all alone at the top, which is how it should be, IMO. I’m not really feeling either Alexa or Carlos. I like Nick and I missed his dance last night, so I can’t really comment on it. I think Hayes has a legit shot at this thing. That kid looked good. I though Andy was charming as well. But tonight I think it will come down to Gary, Kim and Victor – and despite Gary being in jeopardy last night, I have a hard time buying that he’s really in danger. The people watching this show tend to love train wrecks and he’s an entertaining one. I personally am biased in Victor’s favor and I can’t believe people wouldn’t vote for him. So, of course, I’m leaning toward Kim again, despite her big improvement. But let’s look at the math:

week 2 table 2

Victor needs less than 4k votes to get past Gary and less than 8 thousand to get past either Paula or Kim. Frankly, I think he can do it. The dude is just too likeable whereas Kim kinda isn’t. Now, Victor may not beat all three of those people – but he doesn’t have to. He only has to beat one. And I bet he’s beating Kim. I could certainly be wrong. 🙂

Logically, since Gary is a bigger name than either Victor or Kim, he should be looking at the votes Victor needs and not be too concerned…but you just never know. He might be so train wreck-y that people are uncomfortable watching him and therefore don’t vote for him. Plus, he needs less than 4k to beat Kim. I tend to think that happens.

I think that the top 5 have nothing to worry about at all. Victor needs more than 20k to get past any of them and I don’t see that happening. So, Bindi, Alexa, Carlos, Tamar and Alek are good for another week. I think Hayes, Nick and Andy’s fans will easily keep them around – I would be shocked if any of them went home.

And that leaves us with Victor, Gary, Kim and Paula. I think Paula has a couple weeks left in her just based on personality and fanbase – not to mention she’s lookin’ pretty darn good. That leaves Victor, Gary and Kim. None of them would shock me, but I think – ALL THINGS CONSIDERED – that Kim is the weakest of the bunch and will be eliminated tonight. IMO, she is in last place in personality, pro partner, and “it factor”. So there you go. What do you all think??