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DWTS Season 14 – Week 4 Predicted Scores

Now we are nearing the midway point of the season. For anyone that noticed my comments in previous posts, I have broken up every season in “thirds” for easier calculations. What do I mean by this? What I have been trying to do is that for the first “third” of a season, I only use the first four weeks of scores to come up with a predicted score for the first four weeks of the current season. Consequently when it reached Week Four, I’ll shift into using the middle four weeks of all previous seasons (10 week seasons that is) and use that as a basis for predictions. The idea is that using scores from later in the season (ie Week 7 thru 10) would not make sense for predict scores for the beginning of the season (ie Week 1 thru 3). In this way I had hoped that the predicted scores would come out to be closer to accurate than if I were to use scores willy-nilly from any point of any season.

Unfortunately not all seasons are the same length – like how not all casts are the same size – so I had to find some “normalization” for the length of the season. So I broke up a season into “thirds”. In a ten week season:
– “First Third” includes Weeks 1 through 4
– “Middle Third” includes Weeks 4 through 7
– “Last Third” includes Weeks 7 through 10

While in Season 1’s six-week season:
– “First Third” includes Weeks 1 and 2
– “Middle Third” includes Weeks 3 and 4
– “Last Third” includes Weeks 5 and 6

Why is there an overlap of Week 4 and 7 in the ten-week season format? I did that specifically to keep it semi-realistic of the skill level of all the celebs, and to have a decent broad-base of the “thirds” rather than a more cut-throat approach. Since this is the first season that I’m testing these particular calculations out… we’ll see my season finale scorecard fares in the off-season.

But enough with my blabbering… onward to the predicted scores!

ROSHON FEGAN
Dance: Viennese Waltz
Average Scores:
– Age: 22.000
– Occupation: N/A
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 10th
Comments: Oddly enough, the only Disney kid to have any trouble with the Viennese Waltz was Season 7’s Cody Linley with Edyta Śliwińska (who was subbing for the then injured Julianne Hough), but he received a 22. Season 11’s Kyle Massey and Season 12’s Chelsea Kane received a 27 and 26 respectively… so I highly doubt that Roshon is going to score lower than Cody, will he score as high as Kyle or Chelsea? It’s rather hard to say considering that Chelsie has only done a Viennese Waltz at the beginning of the season (Season 10 with Jake Pavelka for 20 and Season 11 with Michael Bolton for 16) or at the end of the season (Season 8 with Ty Murray for 25). Middle of the season will be interesting for this pairing.

GLADYS KNIGHT
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 23.000
– Occupation: 26.000
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 9th
Comments: Being the first singer in her 60s to be on the show, there isn’t much data to work off of (how about virtually none), the closest would be Season 5’s Wayne Newton with Cheryl Burke… but they got an 18 and Gladys is nowhere near as stiff as Wayne Newton. I do think in some ways the 23 is realistic, give or take a point.

Read more..

April 9, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Week 3 Predicted Scores

This is when things get kind of dicey when it comes to predicted scores. Keeping in mind that I am only taking scores from the first four weeks of any given season as a basis of calculations for predicted scoring, you start to find holes in the data. For example: Chelsie Hightower has been had a partner that she has had to work on the Samba with in the first four weeks of any season (whether it’s because they never last that long or luck of the draw).

GAVIN DEGRAW
Dance: Rumba
Average Scores:
– Age: 21.773
– Occupation: 23.000
– Professional Partner: 21.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 22 / 7th
Comments: On paper, this is the dance that could help Gavin break out from the lower pack. The other celebs who were singers and in their 30s did really well with the Rumba (Season 9’s Mya w/ Dmitry Chaplin got a 27 and Season 11’s Brandy w/ Maksim Chmerkovskiy got a 24) so Gavin has quite the shoes (or in the case the heels) to fill. To me, a 22 doesn’t seem all that low.

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Rumba
Average Scores:
– Age: 21.773
– Occupation: 19.500
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 9th
Comments: Unfortunately, since Peta hasn’t been on the show long enough, there isn’t much data to work from. In the meantime what I’m curious about is how other NFL players in their 30s have coped with the Rumba in the past. Apparently, not that well: Season 10’s Chad Ochocinco w/ Cheryl Burke got a 22 while Season 11’s Kurt Warner w/ Anna Trebunskaya got a 17. So how is Donald going to fare with the Rumba? I think a 21 is rather middle of the road, it might be off by a point or two though.

Read more..

April 2, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 2 Predicted Scores

So we know from previous experience that the couples are either going to be jumping around with the Jive or kicking up their heels with the Quickstep. How do we know what they are going to be dancing? Well, if they danced the Foxtrot last week, they will be working on the Jive in Week 2… consequently if a couple danced the ChaCha last week they will be dancing the Quickstep this week.

So let’s see how the predicted numbers add up!

GAVIN DEGRAW
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
– Age: 21.423
– Occupation: 20.167
– Professional Partner: 21.333
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 7th
Comments: Gavin is towards the bottom of the leaderboard after last week’s Foxtrot, which means he will have a lot of ground to cover if he wants to stay in the competition (granted I’m not even counting fanbase votes). When it comes to the Jive, he seems to have a lot going for him between his age group and his partner, both ranking in the top half. However, for some reason singers have crazy trouble with the dance in the first third of the season… and being singers that are suppose to know how to keep time… why? Knowing all this, I’d say his predicted score should be fairly close to the real thing… strongly in the middle of the pack.

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Quickstep
Average Scores:
– Age: 21.792
– Occupation: 22.000
– Professional Partner: N/A (one time pros average: 22.000)
Predicted Score / Rank: 22 / 3rd
Comments: Donald seems to have a lot going for him in regards to how he should do on the Quickstep. Every NFL player that has done the Quickstep in the first third of the season have scored at least a 20. Add to that his age group (30s) and his score inches up a bit… unfortunately Peta has yet to do a Quickstep on the show… so looking at other female pros that have been on the show once it would seem that the Quickstep isn’t a bane either… so I would say that the predicted score is about par for the course based on the limited data available. Read more..

March 26, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 1 Predicted Scores

So here we are, the first week of the season and rumor has it that the celebs are going to be dancing either the gracefully upbeat Foxtrot or the fun and flirty Cha-Cha. So let’s get cooking and see what their scores could be.

What I’m going to do this season is different from previous seasons. I will post up the average score of the dance in a particular group/category and then average all three scores completely and round up or down based on intangibles and there you have the final predicted scores. Keep in mind that popularity, previous dance experience, etc are not taken into account… that is simply too many variables for me to attempt to follow for any season.

GAVIN DEGRAW
Dance: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
– Age: 19.435
– Occupation: 20.000
– Professional Partner: 21.000
Predicted Score: 20
Comments: With most of his scores being “middle of the road” the only thing going for him is his partner Karina. Her scores on the Foxtrot in the first third of the season on average is relatively higher than most pros. Should he be part of the middle of the pack… he may be alright for the week (considering the rabid fan base I’ve noticed thus far) but if he doesn’t shine either this week or next week, he could be in trouble for the casual viewer.

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: ChaCha
Average Scores:
– Age: 19.667
– Occupation: 19.143
– Professional Partner: 14.000
Predicted Score: 18
Comments: It’s always hard to tell how a celeb would do when they are paired with a relatively new pro. NFL players typically do better in the Foxtrot out of the gate as opposed to the ChaCha, so with a couple of strikes against him… NFL players could surprise the audience by sheer weight of their personality, he might be lucky here. However, when looking at the scores of NFL players in their 30s, they tend to hit above average (21.000)… so I almost feel that this score is rather low overall. Read more..

March 19, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Pre-Season Elimination Predictions

Now that you’ve read / seen where everything ranks at the conclusion of Season 13, how does all that math apply to the Season 14 celebrities?

SHERRI SHEPHERD
Age: 40s
Occupation: Host
Professional Partner: Valentin Chmerkovskiy
Overall Rank: 12 ( 9 – 10 – 11 )
Comments: She’s been heavily promoting herself to get onto the show for the past few seasons (a la Florence Henderson). So this really came as no surprise when she was announced as part of the cast. Having a relatively “new” pro for a partner doesn’t help her much. Those that are known for hosting duties in recent memory have been all over the spectrum depending on the combination. But ABC loves the cross promotion, so with her being part of The View allows ABC to bring in Barbara Walters, Whoopi Goldberg, etc into the audience for Dancing with the Stars as a way to bring A-listers into the fold (a la David Arquette and Courtney Cox Arquette or Kirstie Alley with John Travolta). Granted the cross promotion only works for as long as she’s on the show… so we’ll see how long this lasts.
Conclusion: I don’t necessarily agree with the numbers but this also depends on how everyone else has done.

DONALD DRIVER
Age: 30s
Occupation: NFL
Professional Partner: Peta Murgatroyd
Overall Rank: 11 ( 3 – 1 – 12 )
Comments: NFL players typically do rather well on the show, how I have no idea, maybe because the guys are so bored when the NFL season is over that they turn onto Dancing with the Stars to see which NFL player will be on the show (they’ve been on nine of the thirteen seasons thus far). In the seasons that an NFL star was part of the cast they have placed either at the midway point or higher, how I cannot say… I swear I think the male demographic is much higher than people may at first believe it to be. Two of the winners were NFL stars (Emmitt Smith and Hines Ward). So I’ll be interested to see how far Donald goes in this particular season. Again having a relatively “new” pro doesn’t seem to help his numbers any.
Conclusion: This is another rank that I don’t necessarily agree with the numbers… I guess we’ll wait and see.

MARTINA NAVRATILOVA
Age: 50s
Occupation: Athlete (Tennis)
Professional Partner: Tony Dovolani
Overall Rank: 10 ( 11 – 9 – 9 )
Comments: Athletes – outside of the Olympians – don’t typically fare well and as a tennis player, she is placed firmly in the “athletes” category. The last time there was a tennis player in the cast it was Monica Seles in Season 6 with Jonathan Roberts and she didn’t last, leaving the season within the first couple of weeks. I’m not saying that Martina would follow the same path, because other athletes (Helio – racecar driver, Ty Murray – rodeo, Louie Vito – snowboarding, Hope Solo – Soccer) fared well… Now add Tony into the equation, who hasn’t had the best track record either (especilaly in recent seasons) and it still doesn’t look good. Her age group hasn’t fared well on the show (excepting Jennifer Grey and Donny Osmond)…
Conclusion: I’ll agree with her being ranked relatively low… just how low I don’t know.

JACK WAGNER
Age: 50s
Occupation: Soap Opera Actor
Professional Partner: Anna Trebunskaya
Overall Rank: 9 ( 11 – 3 – 10 )
Comments: I totally fangirled when I realized that he’s going to be on the show. Not because he was/is on a soap opera (The Bold and the Beautiful – one of my favorites) but because he played the title role of Dr Jekyll / Mr Hyde in Frank Wildhorn‘s musical production of Jekyll and Hyde (he did a FAR BETTER than David Hasselhoff), in fact I have a CD of him singing somewhere. In any case, yes, I totally fangirled and as thus I can’t really keep a very objective opinion about him but I’ll try. Soap Opera stars for some odd reason tend to fare well on Dancing with the Stars, frequently going past the midway point of the season (Aiden Turner being the exception). So for me I would rather put him in as an entertainer, but since most people would know him as a soap opera star… he’s stuck, which isn’t bad because soap opera stars tend to do reasonably well on this show for some reason (must be the eye candy).
Conclusion: So me being me and selfish I’m wanting to see him to go past the midway point of the show so I could drool enjoy his dancing

MELISSA GILBERT
Age: 40s
Occupation: Actress
Professional Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Overall Rank: 8 ( 9 – 12 – 4 )
Comments: Other than Laura Ingalls from the Little House on the Prairie series is there any other iconic roles that Melissa is known for? I know she’s been a fixture in made for tv movies for most of her life, but that doesn’t help someone that doesn’t really watch tv in general (aka moi). Nevertheless actresses in general don’t usually fare well on the show with less than one-third of all actresses going beyond the midway point of the competition… and they tended to be extremely iconic actresses in their adult lives (Jennifer Grey, Kirstie Alley, Jennie Garth, Jane Seymour, Pamela Anderson to name a few). Having Maksim as a partner can be a good thing since overall he has a stronger track record than most pros (outside of Denise Richards and Debi Mazar).
Conclusion: Honestly for me, she’s up the in air… I’m very much on the fence with her.

KATHERINE JENKINS
Age: 30s
Occupation: Singer (Opera)
Professional Partner: Mark Ballas
Overall Rank: 7 ( 3 – 4 – 7 )
Comments: Now if Katherine Jenkins was Vittorio Grigolo I would have jumped on the next plane to Los Angeles and stayed there for the duration of the show just to watch him. Fortunately for Vittorio and my wallet, he’s not going to be doing something like Dancing with the Stars anytime soon, which come to think of it I don’t know why Katherine would participate in the U.S. Dancing with the Stars as opposed to the U.K.’s Strictly Come Dancing… unless she’s trying to break into the U.S. music scene in some way. I mean Dancing with the Stars has been known to be the launch pad of rekindling dying careers, creating new ones, or salvaging careers, so it’s not exactly far off the mark to say that out of everyone in the cast this is probably more of a publicity stunt than anything else, maybe.
Conclusion: Overall she has a semi-decent ranking mix, she’s a bit of an unknown in general. So I’m going to withhold judgment and just say I hope to see her last for a while.

JALEEL WHITE
Age: 30s
Occupation: Actor
Professional Partner: Kym Johnson
Overall Rank: 6 ( 3 – 7 – 6 )
Comments: Ok, I’m a nerd, so I fangirled. In case you were living under a major rock in the 90s you should know of the iconic character Steve Urkel from Family Matters… or his alter ego: Stefan Urquelle *drools*. Anyway, actors in general tend to do better than actresses, I have no idea why… that’s what the numbers tell me. Maybe it’s the eye candy, maybe they are more endearing to the watching demographic, maybe it’s a bit of all three. In any case, he’s most likely going to come in with a stronger fanbase than most. I’m really looking forward to this pairing, Kym could totally use his huge arsenal of acting chops to get the character of the dances (a la Donny Osmond), it’s just the matter of can he dance?
Conclusion: I’m hoping/thinking that he’ll be lasting past the midway point.

GAVIN DEGRAW
Age: 30s
Occupation: Singer
Professional Partner: Karina Smirnoff
Overall Rank: 5 ( 3 – 4 – 5 )
Comments: This is a classic example of someone trying to rekindle or salvage their dying career. I don’t remember any songs sung by him, but I’ve never been one for the U.S. mainstream music to begin with. With a few exceptions here and there, anyone that made their name via a singing career tend to stay in the middle of the pack going towards the midway point of the season or maybe just passing it by the week. Where would Gavin land in this normalization? I’m thinking he’ll just miss the midway point… but with Karina kicking his butt, we might be in for a surprise… especially since Karina did Aaron Carter well. Keep in mind that Karina’s stock shot up with her win last season. But she tends to have a stronger track record than most pros (not counting Steve Wozniak). Every singer that Karina has worked with has placed 5th in their season (Billy Ray, Mario, Aaron Carter) so I’m actually laughing that the numbers came out the same way.
Comments Addendum: Ok… so I fanned a few flames when I mentioned that I was under the belief that Gavin was trying to salvage his career. I personally have not heard of him in several years and felt that he had fallen off the face of the planet. So I am going to retrack my original statement about his career… and just say that this show could possibly be something of a promotion for him… since his latest album came out last year and he is currently on tour… or he’s just doing it for the sake of doing it.
Conclusion: Gavin has a lot going for him numbers-wise, as long as his personality meshes with Karina’s he should be ok, don’t know how long he’d last though.

GLADYS KNIGHT
Age: 60s
Occupation: Singer (Legend)
Professional Partner: Tristin MacManus
Overall Rank: 4 ( 2 – 4 – 3 )
Comments: On the other side of the singer spectrum we have a legend in our midst, a last minute addition if rumors are to be believed. Oddly enough celebrities in their 60s actually fare better than most other age groups (outside of the obvious Teens and those in their 20s) just barely inching past those in their 30s. Being a legend, Gladys has a lot going for her, a built in fanbase, musicality and of all the “new” professional dancers she landed the most successful of the three.
Conclusion: So I could see her heading towards the midway point on the show, but past it? The jury’s out.

ROSHON FAGEN
Age: 20s
Occupation: Disney
Professional Partner: Chelsie Hightower
Overall Rank: 3 ( 1 – 2 – 8 )
Comments: ENOUGH WITH THE DISNEY STARS ALREADY! I know ABC and Disney are tied at the hip, but really? Another classic example of ABC cross promoting we have the representative from the Disney channel. Not only that, by being in his 20s he has youth and energy by his side to go far in the season. My speculation is that ABC is wanting the youth ratings so they are bringing in someone from the Disney channel to boost said ratings (especially since they will be competing against The Voice that overlaps in the 8:00pm – 9:00pm timeslot). I wouldn’t be surprised if TPTB are hoping for another “Kyle Massey” in Roshon… just sayin’.
Conclusion: All that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Roshon continues the Disney Channel strong streak, he might have that Disney spirit that his predecessors had to get far on the show.

WILLIAM LEVY
Age: 30s
Occupation: Actor
Professional Partner: Cheryl Burke
Overall Rank: 2 ( 3 – 7 – 2 )
Comments: Not only is ABC trying to stretch their age demographic, they bring in one of the hottest guys from Telemundo. I know absolutely nothing about him so I had to ask my Mexican friend who was bound to know more about William than I did… his take on him: “He is so very hunky and has a spectacular sense of humor. Once he went onto a talk show and just started undressing stating ‘this is what you all came to see anyway, right?’…” Well I guess we just discovered our new eye candy for the season, or (hell) he might be the next “Gilles Marini” for all I care at this point.
Conclusion: The jury’s out, but if he could dance, meld with his partner and keep that (theoretical) sense of humor up… I could see this placement happening.

MARIA MENOUNOS
Age: 30s
Occupation: Host
Professional Partner: Derek Hough
Overall Rank: 1 ( 3 – 10 – 1 )
Comments: My evil mind wanted to call this couple the “Barbie and Ken” of Season 14 only in reverse since Maria is a brunette and Derek’s a blonde(-ish), but they do make a pretty couple. Maria has a sense of humor, is a television host, people know her… so yeeeeeaaaah. Not much to say here on my end, except… She has Derek for a partner who brings out the best from his partners and with the strongest track record of all the pros. Her age group also fares well on the show… Her personality does shine rather well on the red carpet, however, and that should translate well on the dance floor.
Conclusion: By the sheer power of Derek she’ll get far, her combo can be considered strong. Win though? I’m not sure.

March 7, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Pre-Season Elimination Breakdown

I’m BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK!!!

Ok that was quite immature of me, but seriously. After the kind of hiatus that I’ve had full of drama what do you expect from me. :) Anyway, the cast has been announced, we know the pairings let’s find out what the numbers say they would fare.

If you’re new to how I calculate the Pre-Season Elimination Predictions please look at Season 11’s Who Has the Edge Part 1, Part 2 as well as Season 12 for information, one of these off-seasons I’ll write a more thorough analysis for you all… but until then, settle for the short form.

Below I’ve taken the time to rank the breakdowns within the following categories: AGE, OCCUPATION and PROFESSIONAL PARTNER so you have an idea of what variables I use before applying them to Season 14’s cast. So here’s a look at how everything ranks as of last season:

AGE is broken down by decades, starting with the teens. It would seem though in general as you get older, the lower the rank (on average), somehow those in their 60s tend to fare rather well… and who knows why? These include George Hamilton, Jerry Springer, John Ratzenberger, Susan Lucci and Kirstie Alley. Maybe this is a reflection of the voting public? Your guess is as good as mine. The age groups in bold are the ones being represented on the show. The ranks go from highest ranking to lowest ranking:
1: Teens
2: 20s
3: 60s
4: 30s
5: 40s
6: 70s
7: 50s
8: 80s

OCCUPATION is a trickier category to break down, because there are a lot of crossover celebrities, or those that happen to be multi-talented. So I try to categorize celebrities based on what they are most known for, not necessarily their most recent occupation (Billy Ray being a Country Singer as opposed to Disney Star). I also separated the Olympians, NBA players and NFL players from all other athletes. Entertainers are those that actually have a little dance background and entertain with not just their voice (Singer) but with their overall personality on stage (imagine Donny and Marie Osmond), Band Member is anyone that happened to be part of a band in their time (98 Degrees, NSync, Spice Girls).
1: NFL
2: Olympian
3: Disney
4: Band Member
5: Entertainer
6: Soap Opera Star
7: Singer
8: Actor
9: Athlete
10: Host
11: Actress
12: Reality TV Star
13: Boxer
14: Other
15: NBA
16: Model
17: Comedian

PROFESSIONAL PARTNERs, whether we like it or not, play a major role in how their celebrity partner does on the show. Being that this is the 14th season of Dancing with the Stars, at this point in time the professional dancers already coming into the season with their own fanbases (Maksim Chmerkovskiy, Derek Hough anyone?). Below are how the professional dancers fared on this show with how many seasons they’ve “competed” on the show. Not included are professional dancers that have permanently left the show.
1: Derek Hough (8 seasons)
2: Julianne Hough (5 seasons)
3: Cheryl Burke (12 seasons)
4: Tristan MacManus (1 season)
5: Maksim Chmerkovskiy (11 seasons)
6: Karina Smirnoff (10 seasons)
7: Kym Johnson (10 seasons)
8: Lacey Schwimmer (6 seasons)
9: Mark Ballas (9 seasons)
10: Louis van Amstel (8 seasons)
11: Chelsie Hightower (5 seasons)
12: Dmitry Chaplin (3 seasons)
13: Tony Dovolani (12 seasons)
14: Anna Trebunskaya (8 seasons)
15: Corky Ballas (2 seasons)
16: Ashly Costa (4 seasons)
17: Jonathan Roberts (7 seasons)
18: Val Chmerkovskiy (1 season)
19: Peta Murgatroyd (1 season)

Stayed tuned as my next post would take all of the above rankings and see how the numbers would rank Season 14’s Dancing with the Stars cast.

March 5, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

How Did Your Early Predictions For DWTS Season 13 Stack Up With The Results?

1.Forecasting the frontrunners. She predicts that J.R. Martinez will walk away with the Mirror Ball trophy this season, with Ricki Lake and Rob Kardashian not far behind.

The above quote was taken from Fitness Magazine from an interview with Anna. She made that winning prediction for Season 13 in October. As you can see she ended up being dead on with it. This got me thinking about our Dancing With The Stars early prediction posts before Season 13 started. Do you remember how you ranked the contestants before they started dancing and were you wrong, right, or close?

Some of you posted your thoughts in Marianya’s Prediction Stat Post while some posted their predictions in Courtney’s Part One and Part Two Preliminary Power Ranking posts. As you can see, Courtney and Marianya were pretty close for how the competition turned out. What’s interesting is Marianya was probably the only one from almost all of us who predicted Rob to do so well….and what’s more Marianya put him as high as 3rd place!

Heidi ended up being amazingly psychic as always when she predicted Kristin to “pull an Audrina” by exiting the competition early in Marianya’s Post. She predicted the same with Chynna. Heidi also predicted J.R. to win in her Part 2 Ringers Post.

Almost all of us chose Rob and Nancy to finish last. The majority felt pretty negative on those two. To our pleasant surprise, we ended up loving them. Rob and Nancy ended up showing other sides to themselves that we didn’t know about and staying in the competition more than many of us forecasted.

Anyway, take a look back at the links above if interested. It’s fun to see how close or far we came from the results and what we (the bloggers and fans) wrote. My early first prediction for the top five were David, JR, Ricki, Elisabetta, and Kristin…and well, we all know how that turned out. LOL!!

November 25, 2011 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

DWTS Season 13 Stats – Pre Season Eliminations Predictions (Now With Pros!)

UPDATE: After a little more research, I will agree that Elisabetta’s primary occupation is as an actress as opposed to model… I have adjusted her ranks (with and without pro) to reflect this… note how this changes the other rankings as well.

YAY! Now we have the official celebrity/professional partner pairings. Let’s see how the ranks change now that we know how the pairings paired out. (Pun totally intended) If you need your memories refreshed, here is how the rankings panned out without knowing who would be paired up with whom.

NOTE: We have three new professional dancers this go around, so their placement value is based on all the past professional dancers that have only been on the show ONCE in the past twelve seasons (including Inna Brayer, Fabian Sanchez, Charlotte Jorgensen, Damian Whitewood, Brian Fortuna, etc). The placement value is separated between the male and female professional dance partners. As a whole the male professional partners that have been on the show once tend to do better than their female counterparts.

More after the break…

Read more..

September 1, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 13 Stats: Pre Season Elimination Predictions

UPDATE: I have changed Elisabetta’s occupation from Model to Actress… note how this changes the rankings.

Hello All! Marianya here… as always every season I try to predict via a series of really complex calculations, statistics, analysis and sometimes gut instinct who will be eliminated, when through the upcoming season of Dancing With the Stars. Sometimes I’m right on point, other times I’m way off base.

Since we won’t officially know celebrity/professional partner pairings until tomorrow (Wednesday) I figure let’s see how the celebrities stand at the moment.

Now if you recall from previous season I use three main factors in calculating placement for the celebrities:
1) Age – probably not too surprising, age plays a role in how a celebrity does on the dance floor. On average the younger celebrities do far better than their elders. Once in a while this may not be the case… for example those in their Teens, 20s, and 30s dominate the placements, but instead of being followed by celebs in their 40s, it is the celebs in their 60s that do well followed by 40s, 70s, 50s and finally 80s.
2) Occupation – believe it or not, what the celeb is primarily known for (aka their primary occupation) plays a factor in their dancing capability. It is a known belief that athletes tend fare far better than comedians, actors/actresses, reality stars, etc… But I break the fields down even further to Olympians, those from the NBA or NFL, boxers and any other athletes that do not fit any of the previous categories. I also separate Actor from Actress, Reality TV Stars get their own category.
3) Professional Partner – this is theoretically suppose to reflect the varying teaching styles of the professional dancers. Granted with a poor student a professional dancer’s teaching style could only go so far, but I think considering all the other varying circumstances of the other categories, this would also be a prime factor to account for.

I will include my own opinion on the matter… but the ranking system is all mathematically based… granted how I break the celebs down is primarily subjective and as thus comments are more than welcome if you believe that there is a better way to describe a particular celebrity.

More beyond the break

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August 30, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Stats Class – Week 8

Ralph and Karina – Viennese Waltz
– Age [40s]: 21.4
– Occupation [Actor]: 27
– Pro Partner: 23.5
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Ralph didn’t disappoint me last week, and I don’t expect him to disappoint this week. It’s a ballroom dance, and ballroom dances is more his strength. What I am more worried about is…

Ralph and Karina – ChaCha
– Age [40s]: 18.833
– Occupation [Actor]: 20.2
– Pro Partner: 19.625
Averaged Predicted Score: 19
Thoughts: This a fun and flirty dance and caters to those with good, strong personalities best. So as much as I’m worried about Ralph not doing as well in the Latin dances, this one I’m not as worried as long as he brings his personality onto the floor and loosens up a bit.

Kirstie and Maks – Argentine Tango
– Age [60s]: 22
– Occupation [Actress]: 24.333
– Pro Partner: 27.333
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Here is a nice slower dance for Kirstie to start with. It requires a lot of passion and drama, and being an actress she should be ok with.

Kirstie and Maks – Salsa
– Age [60s]: 18.667
– Occupation [Actress]: 18.5
– Pro Partner: 16
Averaged Predicted Score: 17
Thoughts: Considering that the Salsa is a recent addition… there is only so much information that could be gleaned. However, it’s a Latin dance, and a bit fun and flirty which should help Kirstie a bit, however if it’s the second dance of the night that it could prove difficult for her stamina.

Romeo and Chelsie – Tango
– Age [20s]: 25.25
– Occupation [Singer]: 22.667
– Pro Partner: 23.5
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Sometimes I feel that Romeo tries too hard to be too aggressive or too hard to be too fun loving… if that makes sense. The tango is one of those dances where he would have to be strong and masculine (a bit like the Paso Doble). Considering how well he’s been doing w/ the ballroom dances I’m not too worried.

Romeo and Chelsie – Salsa
– Age [20s]: 23
– Occupation [Singer]: 25.667
– Pro Partner: 24
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: As much as he’s improving on the ballroom dances, I felt that he’s become a bit stagnant with the Latin dances. After the first week’s chacha I didn’t feel like he has improved nearly as much as he did with the latin dances. Here’s hoping that I’m wrong.

Hines and Kym – Foctrot
– Age [30s]: 22.925
– Occupation [NFL]: 23.111
– Pro Partner: 23.571
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Mr Personality gets to shine again. The personality that we all loved so much in the Latin dances gets to come out during the Foxtrot, and considering that he’s been strong in not only the Latin dances but the Ballroom dances as well, I’m not terribly worried about how he is going to progress.

Hines and Kym – Jive
– Age [30s]: 24.025
– Occupation [NFL]: 22.857
– Pro Partner: 26.2
Averaged Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: There isn’t much more for me to add in regards to the Jive, just keep up the energy and the personality and he should be fine I think.

Chelsea and Mark – Waltz
– Age [20s]: 23.444
– Occupation [Disney]: 23.5
– Pro Partner: 23
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: I would say that with the waltz there is almost no way to make it cheesy, then I remember the Waltz w/ Bristol and how I rolled my eyes, and as thus stand corrected.

Chelsea and Mark – Salsa
– Age [20s]: 23
– Occupation [Disney]: 24
– Pro Partner: 24
Averaged Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Then again w/ the Salsa they could be as cheesy as they want to be, I think… I hope not though, b/c it would drive me batty.

May 8, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)